Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Oakland -124
The Rangers are rolling, but I like division rival Oakland to hit them in the mouth today with Harden on the hill. The Athletics are 4-0 in Harden’s last 4 starts vs. the Rangers, 5-0 in Harden’s last 5 starts as a road favorite, 4-0 in Harden’s last 4 Sunday starts, 9-1 in Harden’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and 20-6 in Harden’s last 26 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. I expect Harden to be very fresh coming off the DL with great stuff today as he has been successful other times in doing so. The A’s are 6-0 in Harden’s last 6 starts with 38 or more days of rest. Take Oakland.
DCI
NBA
Western Conference Semifinals Game 4, best-of-7
SAN ANTONIO 94, New Orleans 92 UTAH 109, L.A. Lakers 107
NHL
Eastern Conference Finals Game 2, best-of-7 PITTSBURGH 3, Philadelphia 2
Ross Benjamin
Philadelphia (Eaton) @ San Francisco (Sanchez) Play On: San Francisco -110
The Philadelphia starting pitcher Adam Eaton enters the game in bad form off of his last 3 starts posting a 1.61 WHIP, a 7.24 ERA, and walking more than he has struck out. In 4 starts on the road this season Eaton has posted a lofty 6.33 ERA. In 6 starts versus the Giants since 2005 Eaton has a very plump 8.26 ERA. The Phillies are hitting just .238 as a team versus left-handed pitching this season. That is not good news since they are facing a young southpaw in Jonathan Sanchez who is 4-0 in his home team starts this season with a stellar 2.19 ERA . Play on the San Francisco Giants
TONY WESTON
My focuses are in Cleveland where the Indians host the Toronto Blue Jays. After dropping the first two of this series, Cleveland will take Game 3 in a big way behind Fausto Carmona.
Last year I was pimping Carmona big time and even said he was more deserving of the Cy Young than teammate and eventual winner C.C. Sabathia. I said Carmona was a better, stronger pitcher than Sabathia and not only did he prove it last year, but he’s been proving it this year.
While Sabathia is struggling this season with a 2-5 record and a 6.55 ERA, Carmona is cruising with a 3-1 record and a 2.95 ERA. He’s also 2-0 in his last four starts, while the Indians are 3-1 in that four game stretch.
As impressive as his 2.95 season ERA is, it’s even more impressive at home where he has a 2.28 ERA in four starts.
The Indians will snap this losing streak to the Jays and get this win behind Carmona.
Pencil in Carmona as your starting pitcher and take the Indians big at home.
3* INDIANS
JEFF BENTON
For Sunday, we’ll take a shot with Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks as a significant road underdog against the Cubs and their ace, Carlos Zambrano.
Zambrano has been brilliant so far this season, giving up two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts, and over his last five outings, he’s 4-0 with a 1.02 ERA. He’s also 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA at home. However ‘ if we are to believe history, then we know that a correction is coming for Big Z, and it’s coming very, very soon. That’s because the one thing Zambrano has never been in his career is consistent. And he’s also never been very good against Arizona in his career, going 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA in four regular-season starts.
Now compare that with Johnson’s career numbers against the Cubs ‘ get a load of this: In 13 starts, Johnson is 12-0 with a 1.98 ERA, registering 138 strikeouts against only 32 walks in 95 2/3 innings of work. That includes a 4-0 record and a 1.00 ERA in five career outings at Wrigley Field. Now, granted, Johnson hasn’t seen the Cubs since 2004. But today he’s facing a lineup that, after starting off the season crushing left-handed pitching, is batting only .239 against southpaws over he last 10 games. Conversely, the DBacks are hitting .304 against right-handers over their last 10 contests.
Throw in the fact that the DBacks, who have lost the first two games of this series in Chicago, haven’t had a three-game losing streak all season, and I’ll take the plus money in this spot.
3* ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona +140 at CHICAGO CUBS
This one could come down to who scores first as both these pitchers have had some success against the other. We’re going to get the plus money with the D’Backs today as they are just oo good a team to get swept.
Arizona has dropped seven of their last 11 games and has lost the first two games of this series, 3-1 Friday and then 7-2 Saturday when Chicago had a six-run seventh inning. Today the D’Backs have Randy Johnson (2-1, 5.06 ERA) on the mound and this guy absolutely owns the Cubbies.
Johnson is 12-0 lifetime with a 1.98 ERA in 13 starts against the Cubs and on the road this season, the Big Unit is 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA in two road outings.
Johnson went six innings in his last start, giving up four runs on six hits in a 6-4 victory over Philadelphia.
Carlos Zambrano (5-1, 1.80 ERA) is on the mound for the Cubs and he has been on top of his game, not losing in a month and throwing eight innings of a 3-0 win at Cincinnati on Tuesday, allowing three hits. But it’s his struggles against Arizona that lead us to take the D’Backs as he’s 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA in four outings against them.
Arizona is 31-13 against the N.L. Central Division with Johnson on the hill and we’re going to play them to improve on that number today. It’s going to be low-scoring, but we’re playing the D’Backs.
2* ARIZONA
Karl Garrett
How can I go against Baltimore in the underdog role today?
With last night’s win over the Royals, the Orioles are a perfect 3-0 this season against Kansas City. Back track it a bit further, and the numbers are frightening if you are a Royals fan
The O’s are 8-1 at Kansas City since 2006, and 15-1 overall against the Royals in that same time frame!
Baltimore will go with Burres who is a decent 3-3 for the season with an ERA just over 3, while Kansas City will counter with Bannister who has hit the skids, dropping his last 3 starts, while allowing 10 runs to score in his last 12 innings of work.
With the Orioles owning the Royals the last 2-plus season’s, the G-Man sees no reason to go against them today.
Take Baltimore!
3* BALTIMORE
MATT RIVERS
For Sunday take the Spurs at home
I have been all about the Hornets in each of the first three games in this series and have cashed obviously in two of the three. New Orleans is a very well balanced squad that is legit and will compete in this game as well as Chris Paul is a budding superstar and as good as they come. But the Spurs showed once again in that last game that they are still a force to be reckoned with as they are the defending champs and are at home where it is extremely difficult to challenge them.
Paul, Chandler, Peja and West form a team that may win this series as they are nasty at home. Today though they are on the highway and despite playing a solid last game still failed in the end as Timmay, Parker, Ginobili and the fellas took care of business in the end. Greg Popovich is a phenomenal coach who will obviously have his squad primed and ready to go once again today.
I can see game four turn out just like game three. These teams will go at it hard and the Hornets may even once again lead for awhile in this thing. But after 48 minutes of hoop, at home, the Spurs are too experienced and need this game too much to not come through.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tonight we like another OVER in the Hornets-Spurs series. If there is one thing the defending NBA champs are, it is versatile.
San Antonio prefers to throw the defense at you, but they can play up-tempo if need be, and against Chris Paul and the hard-charging Hornets, that is exactly what the Spurs have had to do.
2-0-1 OVER the posted total in the first 3 games of this series, and this one will head OVER the total as well.
New Orleans is on an 8-3 OVER clip when installed as a road dog their last 11, while San Antonio is on an 8-2-1 OVER clip their last 11 played at home.
Finally, 8 of the last 11 series meetings in San Antonio between the teams have eclipsed the price, so there is no way we are interested in backing the UNDER in this spot tonight.
Play the OVER.
1* OVER
Jim Feist.
NY Yankees and DET Tigers. Take NY Yankees
The Detroit bullpen troubles continue, especially when shaky starters don’t provide enough quality innings. In this game, starter Nate Robertson has struggled badly, at 1-4 with a 6.64 ERA. He’s averaged just over 5 innings per game. Even when he was throwing well, the Yankees knocked him around, with a 2-5 record against them, plus a 5.02 ERA. NY lefty Andy Pettitte has a .500 record, but is throwing well with a 3.77 ERA. The Yankees have a better road record than the struggling Tigers have at home. Play the Yankees!
JB’s COMPUTER PICKS
Cleveland Indians – 135
Florida Marlins + 110
Los Angeles Angels – 120
Chicago White Sox – 120
LAS VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Los Angeles Lakers + 2 over (at) Utah Jazz Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS last eight games vs. above .500 teams. The Lakers are 7-2 last nine meetings off losing at Utah 104-99 in game three. LA is a West best 27-14 on the road.
New Orleans Hornets + 6 over (at) San Antonio Spurs New Orleans is 3-1 (SU & ATS) last four meeting off losing at San Antonio 110-99 on Thursday night The Hornets are 38-12 ATS last 50 games when coming off an ATS loss.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets Prediction: over
Reason: The team’s played a double header on Saturday and expect both bullpens to be tired tonight. The over is 6-1 in the Reds last 7 games played on Sunday’s. The over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Reds Johnny Cueto has an ERA of 8.59 over his last 3 starts. The over is 7-3-1 in the Mets last 11 games. The Mets have played the over in 2 of Perez’s last 3 starts. His ERA over his last 3 starts is 8.10. The over is 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. The over is 7-3 in his last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Play the over.
Dave Cokin
Phillies @ Giants Play: Giants +100
Jonathan Sanchez has been erratic since finding his way into the regular Giants pitching rotation. There’s no doubt about the stuff owned by this lefty. Sanchez can pitch and has a chance to be a star if things fall into place. Right now, I think it’s a matter of trusting his own stuff. Sanchez has fabulous numbers against lefties, but has struggled against righties. The reason is readily apparent. He has not walked a single lefty hitter all season, but can’t locate the zone with any regularity against righties. Since home plate is immobile, the conclusion I reach is that it’s a mental thing that Sanchez has to get past, and once he does, he’s going to be a very solid pitcher. As for today, I like his chances. Sanchez has been good at home, and Philly’s Adam Eaton is a pretty soft opponent even the popgun SF attack can exploit somewhat. I’ll grab Sanchez and the Giants to salvage the series finale.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: NY Yankees w/Pettite vs Robertson
Note: Yankees wrap up their weekend visit to the Motor City when they send Andy Pettite to the hill against Nate Robertson in a matchup of left handers. Pettite owns a solid 3.55 ERA in 23 career team starts against the Tiger whereas Robertson is just 2-7 lifetime in his career starts against the Pinstripes. With Robertson 1-3 at home with a 6.20 ERA this season, look for the visiting team to improve to 7-1 in Pettite’s starts this season here today.
Matt Fargo
Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Play: Florida Marlins
I’m perplexed by this line. Florida is starting to heat up once again as it has now won six straight games to move back into first place in the National League East. The Marlins took the first two games of this series which makes it seven wins in the first eight meetings this season. So the fact that Florida remains an underdog here makes no sense especially when the pitching matchup favors it as well. The Marlins are now 10-5 away from home which is the best road record in baseball.
While the Marlins are surging, the Nationals are slumping. It has been a season of streaks for the Nationals and they are once again in the middle of one, this time on the down side. Washington has dropped four of its last five games after winning eight of 10 prior to that. The offense is once again not producing and the bats are hitting only .238 on the season which is 2nd to last in the National League, ahead of San Diego only. The slugging percentage of .352 is also second worst.
Scott Olsen is coming off the best outing of his career as he allowed just two hits in 8.2 innings against the Brewers. It was his fifth quality outing in his last six starts and that already includes two over Washington this season. He is 2-0 against the Nationals this season, giving up five runs in 14 innings for a 2.45 ERA while also posting a solid 0.89 WHIP. The Marlins are 6-1 in his seven starts including a perfect 2-0 mark on the road where Olsen has posted a 1.80 ERA.
The Nationals counter with Shawn Hill who has looked decent but certainly not spectacular in his four starts this season. He has one quality start and while he has allowed more than three runs only once, that is mostly due to his inability to do a long distance. Three of his four outings has seen him out before the end of the sixth inning including his last outing where he tossed 107 pitches but only lasted 5.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .283 on the season. Play Florida Marlins 1.5 Units
Alex Smart
Chicago Cubs -150
The Chicago Cubs are the real deal, and a long World Series drought, might just come to end this season, if they can stay healthy. With the capable Carlos Zambrano( 5-1, 1.80 ERA) going to the hill for the Cubs they once again look like a solid bet. I know their visiting opponents the DBacks will be sending veteran Randy Johnson out to return fire, and I also know the five-time Cy Young Award winner is 12-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cubs, including 4-0 along with a 1.00 ERA in five starts at Wrigley. But all things must come to end , and Im predicting , Johsnsons domination in this series ends this Sunday. Play on the Cubs
Robert Ross
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians
Indians go for the sweep. Jays have scored one run in losing the first two games of this series by a combined 18-1. They have been offensively-challenged all year, averaging just under 2.7 runs/game over their last 19 contests.
Play on: Cleveland
Chris Jordan
Were taking the Mets in a blowout win here, as Johan Santana will handcuff the struggling Reds, and the New York lineup will belittle Matt Belisle. Cincinnatis right-hander is 1-2 on the season with a lofty 6.91 ERA and will be making his third straight road start after pitching in Frisco on April 26 and at Turner Field on May 3. All three of his starts this season have gone over, and thats due to that rather big ERA.
On the other hand, the biggest offseason acquisition for any team has yet to win at home in Shea Stadium, and heres the perfect opportunity, as Santana rolls in off a trio of quality starts, but only one win to show for it. Hes looked sharp in his last three outings, giving up just five earned over 19 frames. He hasnt faced the Reds in nearly seven years, so theyll certainly be struggling to hit him in this one, as his change should keep them off-balance.
Lets play this one on the run line, as the Mets win by a handful.
4* METS RUN LINE
Mr. A’s
NBA
Detroit Pistons + 5
Cleveland Cavaliers – 1½
MLB
Houston Astros (19-17) at Los Angeles Dodgers (19-16)
The hot Astros have won six of their last seven games, but have struggle away from home, just 7-11 on the road this season. However, the surging Astros hammered the LA Dodgers, 7-1 on Friday and have taken five of the last seven and four of the last six at Dodger Stadium.
Houston sends Chris Sampson to the hill. The struggling right-hander has allowed 10 runs in his last two starts. He is 1-3 with a 7.96 ERA this season. Sampson gave up four runs over five innings in a 10-2 lost in his only career start against the Dodgers on July 23. Los Angeles counters with Chad Billingsley. The right-hander is 2-4 with a 4.54 ERA. He has won his last two outings, following four straight loses. Billingsley is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in two career starts against the Astros.
Look for Los Angeles offense to clobber Chris Sampson. The Dodgers are 8-3 in their last 11 home games.
Los Angeles Dodgers – 180 & Over – 8½
VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians
Despite Cleveland finally scoring some runs yesterday, six in fact, they and the Blue Jays still managed to go Under the posted total. Look for more of the same tonight. Entering last night’s contest, the Tribe was averaging a paltry 2.8 runs per game over their last 10. Toronto averages just three runs/game vs. lefties and has scored five or more runs just four times dating back to April 20th. Ouch!
Play on: Under
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Play on: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) over Los Angeles
The Angels lefty Saunders was bombed last time out, so the Diamond is staying away from the overall talent advantage. Instead, I’ll back the Rays with lefty Kazmir who most likely will be on a pitch count. Tampa Bay has outstanding pitching statistics, even in the bull pen with a 1.67 ERA at home this season. Add in the Rays 7-0 streak and perfect 6-0 run after scoring two or less runs in the prior encounter and you have all the necessary angles to support a winning side.
BRIAN MARSHALL
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Plays On: Atlanta/Pittsburgh Over 9.5
Game Analyses: Do you love high-scoring baseball games? If yes, you will love Saturday’s MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Atlanta Braves will be lead by starting pitcher Chuck James. Chuck James has struggled this season. In fact, Chuck James has a 7.62 ERA on the season. To say the least, we see Chuck James giving up many runs today.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will be lead by starting pitcher Tom Gorzelanny. Tom Gorzelanny has also struggled this season. In fact, Tom Gorzelanny has a 6.91 ERA this season. We see Tom Gorzelanny also giving up many runs today.
These teams have a history of scoring many runs when they meet. In fact, the Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams.
Take the Atlanta Braves/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9.5
Jim Feist
COL Rockies and SDG Padres Take SDG Padres
San Diego is home after a long road trip to the East coast. Their pitching staff likes the spacious outfield of Petco Park. It’s a park you need to be able to throw strikes in and not walk anyone. That’s the problem with Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez, who has 25 walks in 34 innings. That’s why he’s 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA. San Diego starter Greg Maddux knows all about the value of throwing strikes, walking just 8 in 44 innings. He’s been much better the last two years at home than on the road. An excellent spot for the home team. Play the Padres
Dave Cokin.
OAK Athletics and TEX Rangers Take OAK Athletics
The Rangers got an unexpected lift from unheralded Scott Feldman Friday night and knocked off the A’s. But I don’t see the momentum carrying over here. Kevin Millwood is getting ripped in virtually every start and I expect the A’s to do damage against him here. Dana Eveland has been much tougher at home than on the road, but overall the lefty has been pretty effective and I believe he rates the pitching edge. Oakland is also the better team, so adding it all up, there looks to be good value here on the A’s.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Astros/Dodgers UNDER 9 Runs
The Under is 4-0 in the Astros last 4 Saturday games, 6-1 in the Astros last 7 games as a road underdog, and 6-1 in the Astros last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Under is a strong 22-8 in the Astros last 30 vs. a team with a winning record. The Under is 6-1 in Billingsley’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 5-1 in Billingsley’s last 6 starts vs. the National League Central. The Astros are a team which really struggles to score runs, especially on the road. We’ll take the under 9 runs here.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Florida Marlins +101
The Fish are off to a surprising start and it makes sense to back them here against a team they have dominated. The Marlins are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in this matchup. The Marlins are 9-3 in their last 1s vs. the National League East, 5-0 in their last 5 overall, and 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Nationals are only 2-5 in their last 7 games as a favorite, 17-36 in their last 53 vs. a team with a winning record, and 7-17 in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Marlins are playing great baseball right now and I expect their hot hitting to continue in hitter-friendly Washington
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Black Widow Sports
1* on Kansas City Royals -136
Baltimore has had KC’s number, winning the first 3 games of this series, but the Royals will salvage a game in this finale behind the solid Brian Bannister. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 4 of a series, 5-1 in Bannister’s last 6 Sunday starts, and 9-2 in Bannister’s last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Orioles are 0-8 in Burres’ last 8 starts with 4 days of rest, 0-4 in Burres’ last 4 Sunday starts, and 0-4 in Burres’ last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Royals in this bounce back spot.