Coachella Trading Company - recent posts from TopSportsBets.com community

CFB Free Play Today-Northern Illinois vs Iowa St

2010-09-02T13:49:01-07:00

2* – Northern Illinois/ Iowa St UNDER 51.5 lines via BetUS

Let me start by saying how much I love the MAC. I consider this my strongest conference. I knew I was going to make a play in this game as soon as I saw the lines come out. I was close to taking the Huskies with the points. But I couldn’t turn down playing the under with this total being so inflated.

Now some will see that the total opened at 46.5 and is now 51.5 and ask themselves why? But its simple the sharps say that the public jumped on the over and figured they would too. But the problem for the public is this total is going to soon start to drop. Because I’ve been around long enough to know that this is setting up a great middle for them. Because they know like I know that the total on this game goes under.

The Cyclones and Huskies are going to have very similar game plans for tonight. Run the ball, stop the run, and don’t be the first team to make a mistake. Which will turn into a game where the clock will always be running and drive’s will be time killer’s. This is going to lead to a very quick low scoring game.

Northern Illinois defense is for real. They have probably the best defensive end in the MAC in Jake Coffman. A solid line backing group that will only get stronger this year. Remember the name Devon Butler. This middle linebacker will burst into the spotlight this year.

While Iowa St may look to be in disarray at times on defense this year. Not tonight. Unlike the MAC opponents the Huskies will run all over. The Cyclones will match up well against the Huskies. They have the size advantage and speed that will get them through a couple bad plays. Also coach Paul Rhoads is a great defensive mind. He may not have players with experience but he will have them prepared.

o lets see what we have here. Two teams on offense that will run, run, and run some more. We know that the defensive is both teams strong side of the ball. And we know that we are getting an inflated number. With knowing all of that. We can feel confident that the UNDER 51.5 is the 2 unit play of the day. Good Luck!!!

TSB_Mike 9/2 College Football Thoughts

2010-09-02T11:58:20-07:00

SOUTH CAROLINA vs. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

My notes on this game say simply: See Dave Essler. I remember a while back when he spoke quite candidly on this UNDER. Sure enough, this total keeps dropping. As far as the side goes, it’s harly moving, especially with relation to the total. I don’t have any strong leans with regards to the side, but i certainly respect this Southern Miss team. I also greatly respect this Gamecocks defense. But can they score enough to cover this line? I still look back to the initial opening of this line, -13.5. That’s a key line move, and it favors Southern Miss.

OHIO ST. vs MARSHALL

Lots of people talking about how this is a lookahead game for the Buckeyes. But i could argue that Marshall facing West Virginia in their next game makes this a lookahead game as well. Ohio St. has the perception of not being a very good ATS team. That wasn’t the case last year. What do i think tonight? I think it’s tough to find value, although i would look to the UNDER first. With the way this line is setting up, it’s going to be tough for Marshall to score. And if they don’t score, what motivation does OSU have to run up this score? This could be a game where Ohio St. keeps it on the ground for 10 minutes in the 4th quarter protecting a big lead. Only lean here is a slight one, to the UNDER.

IOWA ST. vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS

A great deal of respect to the MAC leaders. Northern Illinois is a grinding team, one that doesn’t beat themselves and plays pretty good D. They are also well coached. I know many look at Iowa St. as a sleeper team this year. Is the hype justified is what really matters. This is a low line, that has creeped up. This total has also gone up, which favors Iowa St. Again, is it warranted? The weather pattern needs to be followed here as well. This line has started to move….

UTAH vs. PITTSBURGH

Of all the games today, this is the one i’m most excited to watch. I will also not have a single penny on this game. It’s important to realize what’s fun, and what’s a true betting position to take. Despite what i know about this game and where my heart lies, i know that this game offers no betting value to me. People that watch games and only have action on those said games are starting a long term losing proposition in the face. With this game tonight, i expect more scoring than what oddsmakers think. I lean to the OVER more than anything else in this game. A very, very slight lean to Utah, but i do think this game is going to be close throughout. This very well could be an OT game. Respect Jordan Wynn, he’s going to be great.

HAWAII vs. USC

Late night action, with huge public money on USC. What’s the last game you can bet on tonight? Yup, this game. You really want to get your money down on a huge public favorite against a line that won’t move over the 21.5 number? Everytime this number touches 21.5, it goes back down to 21. What’s that telling you? I know, you expect USC to come in and dominate and make a STATEMENT. Yup, Lane Kiffin if getting in your head. See, he’s vastly overrated, and all he has is TALK. He’s done NOTHING to warrant that said talk. His talking is single handily going to make USC a losing proposition this year from an ATS standpoint. LANE KIFFING+HIS MOUTH=INFLATED LINES!

MTSU vs. MINNESOTA

How ironic that today the line moves back towards MTSU. You better be careful. This would be the one game i wouldn’t ever consider wagering on. I just wouldn’t. Terrible game in my opinion. Too many people tried to jump on the Gophers because of the Dasher situation. Those same people know nothing about Kilgore. Just remember, this line today is working back to MTSU. And this team is pretty good. I lean to the home disrespected dog. But i still want nothing to do with this game.

UAB vs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC

check out this total dropping. I have no strong opinion on this game. I’ll be interested to see what this final score comes in at. I am a bit surprised to see UAB favored by 2 TD’s here. FAU has a decent offense, and i don’t trust the UAB passing game at all. It seems like a consistent thing that UAB picks off a pass and takes it to house for a picksix. This is also a revenge game for FAU, as they were embarrased last year against UAB. I like UAB’s D, but i’m not sure they have the offense to cover this number. Tough game.

Play Of The Day Thread-FOOTBALL THURSDAY 9/2

2010-09-01T21:07:18-07:00

Wow – finally some real ball going today. Lots of games, lots of action, so let’s get organized and get a few winners to start the season. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Wednesday 9/1

2010-08-31T22:38:32-07:00

September is here. Football is TOMORROW!!!!! Needless to say the board had a massive MLB day on Tuesday. Keep it up! Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Tuesday 8/31

2010-08-30T21:49:55-07:00

Good start to the week on the boards. Added a few new faces, saw a few returning. Getting locked and loaded for football… More MLB Tuesday. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Monday 8/30

2010-08-29T19:56:31-07:00

New week, not a ton of action Sunday. Let’s hammer it out with about 10 days left until real NFL. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Sunday 8/29

2010-08-28T21:17:40-07:00

Low battery on the laptop. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Cajun's 8/28 NFLX Leans

2010-08-28T07:51:09-07:00

After cashing the Chargers/Saints over last night (with a little luck involved), we move on to tonight’s 9 game line-up:

LEANS:

BENGALS -3 Buffalo

Cowboys/Texans under 40.5

SEAHAWKS +5.5 Vikings

Cardinals/Bears over 38

RAIDERS -1 49ers

Play Of The Day Thread-TSB FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT Saturday

2010-08-27T20:30:07-07:00

Padres game is still out there. Props to Cajun though for coming back with a win to start football. Skins got it done for me outright. Big weekend ahead. UFC, PGA, NFL and I guess a bit more MLB. TSB FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT TONIGHT. Good to see people showing back up and getting geared up for football. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Ragin Cajun’s NFL Preseason Play for 8/27/10

2010-08-27T12:55:51-07:00

(261) San Diego/ (262) New Orleans over 43.5 -110 (2 units) line via BETUS

Well Football is back and we are already in Week 3 of the preseason.

Tonight we have the defending Super Bowl champs bringing their “high octane” offense to the field to battle the San Diego Super Chargers. Why back the over here tonight you might ask. Well I feel that this is an important week for a lot of teams as this week is known as the last real effort week of the preseason as week 4 typically a sit-down week for most starters. Most of the 1st teamers are going to go well into the 2nd half this week and some might play in the 4th.

With that said, you have 2 offenses meeting tonight in Super Dome and you know both teams can put up some points. The Saints come into this week 3 game averaging 31 pts/contest in their 2 prior games where the Chargers haven’t scored as much and are averaging a shade under 20 pts/contest. Tonight I expect both teams to get their preseason averages here to go over the posted total.

The Saints will score tonight as they know how to find the points in the Dome. They are still battling some minor injuries on the defensive side of the ball and they special teams play has been the biggest eye sore of the preseason. The Saints are giving up a ton of kickoff return yards to their opponents and that leads to short fields and lots of chances for points. And with Sproles on the return team for the Chargers, I would not be surprised one bit to see him take one the full distance. The Chargers have some key injuries on the offensive side of their own and we are not sure how long Rivers will play, but I truly believe the Chargers put up at least 21-24 points tonight. Crompton and Volek will split the time for the remainder once Rivers departs and seeing how mediocre they have been, I happen to think this can lead to a td or 2 with turnovers. This is a huge game (you can down play it if you want) for Brees as well as he would love for nothing more than to put some points up on the team that got rid of him and sent him to the Saints.

You can expect most starters to go deep in the 3rd qtr tonight and that only increases our chances for this to go over. This line opened around 41 and is not up to 44 in some places so the line is definitely moving with the money! Also keep in mind that San Diego is 9-0 over (+9 units) after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game (14-16 loss vs. the Cowboys). This game might not end up with the Packers/Colts 80 pt outburst but I definitely look for this to hit the 50’s with no sweat (well some sweat is good)!

Take the over as the Double Star play of the night!!

NOW WAKE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Play Of The Day Thread-Friday 8/27

2010-08-26T20:29:03-07:00

Impressive preseason outing by Bradford. Both games super high scoring. Unfortunately the Colts didn’t get it done. Tribe came through to help the loss a bit. Big weekend ahead with PGA, UFC, NFL, MLB and the TSB Fantasy Football Draft tomorrow night! Good luck, and see ya in the AM

PGA TOUR PLAYOFFS!

2010-08-25T20:54:02-07:00

PGA TOUR PLAYOFFS PREVIEW:

We are going to start with our biggest plays, and work downward:

Our biggest Golf Wager this week is:

STEVE STRICKER TO FINISH IN THE TOP 14 (+125)....I really like this play. First off, Stricker has NEVER finished outside of the Top 20 in this event, regardless of where it’s played. Stricker is a great “playoff” player, and i’ll explain what i mean right now. The playoffs are at the end of the year, and there are golfers out there that legitimately love playing at certain times of the year. Stricker loves the heat, and he plays well in August and September. This week will be no exception. He was under a ton of pressure playing at home for the PGA. He will back it up this week. His ballstriking is great, and he will take bogey’s out of play simply because of his ability to hit fairways and greens. Love Stricker this week. He’s one of my top 2 choices, so getting him to finish Top 14 at + money is big. I’m going big here.

RORY MCILROY TO FINISH IN THE TOP 11 (+125).....Mcilroy is simply playing too well to be left out. At many online books, he’s the co-favorite, along with Tiger and Lefty. That’s really saying something. I’d pick him to win, but not sure if he has the KILLER instinct in BIG events yet. However, his ballstriking alone will keep him in the game. I like his comments that he’s made of late, and i think he continues the solid play. Traditional courses suit him well, and it will show this week. This is a big play, but not as big as Stricker.

Small plays:

I’m also playing BOTH Tiger and Mickelson to finish in the Top 10. At +125 for each, all we need is 1 to finish in the top 10 to earn a small profit. Mickelson has been working hard this week on his driving. He’s added some more loft on his driver, and that will help him hit more fairways. He also loves this part of the East Coast. I think he’s rested, and he will play well. Tiger, i believe in him. I actually think right now he could arguably be considered UNDERRATED. I say this from a betting standpoint, nothing else. Considering he used to be 3-1 or 9-4 each week, he shouldn’t be 11-1 or 12-1. He’s just not 4 times worse than he was. Not right now anyway. The swing coach change and the time off will change him, i guarantee it. When you have that much talent, it only takes a few minor adjustments before things can click. No doubt he needs the confidence, but in golf, confidence can come and go DAILY. He’s hit rock bottom. He will be back, and i think it very well could be this week, which leads me to THIS.

TIGER WOODS TO WIN 11/1. Yup, i’m biting. See, i typically wait to wager on Woods until further into the weekend. That’s because he typically starts slow before coming on late. But things are different now. I know he’s exciting with the minor swing changes he’s working on. I also know that he has the VERY FIRST TEE TIME THURSDAY MORNING. That’s key, especially because of the conditions. The course is soft, and it’s never going to be more soft than in the first tee time of the first day. Don’t think for second he doesn’t realize what’s at stake. My point is simple. Tiger MUST take advantage of the best conditions all day long. I expect him to play well, and at 11-1, i think there is value here based on the unique circumstances.

Other players i’m wagering on:

MATT KUCHAR 30-1

HUNTER MAHAN 30-1

PAUL CASEY 28-1

Sleepers:

KEVIN SUTHERLAND 125-1

MICHAEL SIM 100-1

JASON DAY 80-1

Let’s have a good week!

Play Of The Day Thread-Thursday 8/26

2010-08-25T20:16:50-07:00

A few NFLX games going tonight to change up the pace a bit. I like the Giants today. I think they get the job done…. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Wednesday 8/25

2010-08-24T20:27:57-07:00

No plays on Tuesday for us. Saw a few on the board, but I don’t feel like looking them up. LOL. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Tuesday 8/24

2010-08-23T20:45:57-07:00

Starting to roll a bit over the last few days. Another NFLX winner Monday. Let’s do it again Tuesday. Any further TSB draft thoughts – throw them out there. Otherwise, sounds like we might stick with Saturday night. Good luck, and see ya in the AM!

Play Of The Day Thread-Monday 8/23

2010-08-22T19:48:43-07:00

Nice Sunday. Still the NFLX out, but hopefully it holds up as well. Not a bad overall week. Not long until college and pro start up. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Sunday 8/22

2010-08-21T21:01:48-07:00

Split the NFL card on Saturday. I did hit my first Steelers play of the year though, and props to MPowers with the 6/1 NASCAR as well. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Saturday 8/21

2010-08-20T21:42:45-07:00

Twinkies came through for a nice start to the weekend. Let’s carry it through and start a streak. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Friday 8/20

2010-08-19T21:16:31-07:00

Not a ton going on Thursday. The NFLX play was dead almost as soon as it started. Props to Crotch & Bob for some MLB winners, and depending on if you got the Pats game at 37.5 or 38, you either won or pushed the over. Let’s hit it hard to start the weekend early. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Thursday 8/19

2010-08-18T20:37:14-07:00

Props to Crotch for continuing to push out MLB winners. WEC was semi entertaining, although the big fight play didn’t come through. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-WEC Wednesday 8/18

2010-08-17T21:49:35-07:00

That was my LAST MLB play for the rest of the month. LOL. Props to Mike with a winner though. WEC fights on Wednesday, so hopefully that will lighten things up. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

WINsday WEC MMA ACTION!

2010-08-17T17:29:58-07:00

I like this card, alot.

I’m coming off my first losing MMA card in forever. I’m exciting to get back on the horse. Here are two plays i’m on NOW.

DAVE JANSEN +110 Ricardo Lamas (my favorite wager, and at a dog price)

JOSEPH BENAVIDEZ +200 Dominick Cruz (small, but the VALUE is with Joseph)

Am looking to add 1 more tomorrow!

Play Of The Day Thread-Tuesday 8/17

2010-08-16T21:57:10-07:00

Small NFL play to start the week lost as the Giants pulled away in the 4th. Props to Crotch on the Blue Jays winner. I still hate baseball right now. Gonna be over soon. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Monday 8/16

2010-08-15T22:43:27-07:00

Unreal how a caddy can miss something like grounding your club on the 18th in a major. No matter how difficult that rule may have been to know – it was their job to know it. FAIL for Dustin Johnson. Two majors blown this year by him. New week – good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Sunday 8/15

2010-08-14T22:15:18-07:00

Bears didn’t come through on Saturday. Hopefully we can figure it out Sunday and start a new week winning. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-Saturday 8/14

2010-08-13T21:51:59-07:00

Gotta wake this board up as we head towards football. Good luck, and see ya in the AM!

Play Of The Day Thread-Friday 8/13

2010-08-12T21:35:03-07:00

BANG One NFL play, and one winner. Let’s keep it going! Good luck, and see ya in the AM

Play Of The Day Thread-NFL Thursday 8/12

2010-08-11T20:24:09-07:00

LET’S DO THIS! Bout time. It may be preseason, but it is sure as hell better than baseball. Good luck, and see ya in the AM

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP 2010

2010-08-11T15:31:06-07:00

Golf’s final major. Excited for this one, that’s for sure. We were dominant in the first 2 major’s, before losing in the British Open. Yes, we lost in the British Open. However, both of our losses in that tournament were because of Louis Oosthuizen. He was only 250-1, so i don’t think i was the only one to miss that one. Bottom line, we do HUGE work in the majors, and this week will be more of the same.

I will say this: This major is more wide open than ever before. When TIger isn’t the listed favorite, you know things are changing. I can assure you that this week will produce a very FAIR winner. This course is playing very fair, and it’s set up exactly that way. A good driver is a must, both with regards to DISTANCE and ACCURACY.

I also want to mention that our biggest plays this week will come in the OVER/UNDERS each day. I won’t be releasing those till the morning of, but those are our BIGGEST PLAYS. Don’t think otherwise, ever.

Let’s get to the official plays:

TO WIN:

RORY MCILROY 16-1

HUNTER MAHAN 30-1

SEAN OHAIR 40-1

MATT KUCHAR 50-1

ADAM SCOTT 66-1

Those are my top 5 guys. I know others have better odds and such, but these are the 5 i’m rolling with. Obviously some big odds on a few of them, and i like that. I took what i believe to be the BEST DRIVERS of the golf ball, and worked from there. I know we have great ball strikers with all 5, with great all around games. I think SCOTT is a huge, huge SLEEPER this week.

LONGSHOTS:

ROSS FISHER 66-1

BEN CRANE 80-1

JB HOLMES 100-1

ROBERT KARLSSON 100-1

CHARL SCHWARTZEL 125-1

I like these longshots, and will put a tiny amount on each. Again, this week is wide open, and i think there is some sweet value on these bigger underdogs, especially the EUROS.

TO FINISH TOP 10:

RORY MCILROY +135

HUNTER MAHAN +250

MATT KUCHAR +450

SEAN OHAIR +275

ADAM SCOTT +550

There’s a reason this is the same group that is listed to win. I feel very confident with this group. They drive it the best, and they will be in position. Considering the pricing on everyone but Mcilroy, it won’t take much to get our profit!

HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS:

JB HOLMES -120 Justin Leonard…..Leonard is a big sleeper, but i don’t see it. The wet weather the past 2 days really hurt a player like Leonard.

BO VAN PELT -140 Sergio Garcia….Van Pelt is a top 10 machine, and one could argue he’s a better driver of the golf ball than Garcia. Considering that’s Garcia’s best attribute, this is a landslide here.

Lastly, one more Player Prop:

RORY MCILROY to finish in the Top 15: +125…..No, i’m not a huge Mcilroy guy. However, i can’t ignore the form and the way this tournament sets up for him. As young as he is, i know he learned alot from his 2nd round at St. Andrews. He’s focused, and his ballstriking alone puts him in this Top 10.

Remember, OVER/UNDERS to come, as well as other specific scoring wagers.

SAVE YOUR BIGGEST ACTION for these upcoming OVER/UNDERS!

Play Of The Day Thread-Wednesday 8/11

2010-08-10T22:12:32-07:00

Two MLB plays – both winners. I still hate baseball though. LOL. Angels went easily under as well, so I hated it a little less Tuesday. Football tomorrow! Good luck, and see ya in the AM