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NFL Football News and Notes Sunday 12/6
jizzle24 2009-12-06 06:05:07 UTC

NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 13
By SHAWN HARTLEN

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5)

Why Eagles cover: They’re 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Atlanta will probably be without leading rusher Michael Turner who re-injured his ankle last week. Chris Redman will start at quarterback in place of injured Matt Ryan.

Why Falcons cover: Philly is likely without leading receiver DeSean Jackson who suffered a head injury last week. Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Atlanta. Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Total (44): Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings and 4-0 in the last four in Atlanta.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: Rookie QB Josh Freeman has been impressive in his first four starts. Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Both Carolina running backs, DeAngelo Williams (ankle) and Jonathan Stewart (Achilles’ tendon) are battling injuries.

Why Panthers cover: They’ve won five of the past seven meetings. Matt Moore will start in place of Jake Delhomme (18 INTs), who’s been terrible. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Buccaneers are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 vs. Carolina.

Total (37): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Carolina.

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears (-9)

Why Rams cover: They’ve won four of the past six meetings. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Steven Jackson (1378 total yards) continues to have an amazing season despite inconsistent quarterback play. Bears are dealing with multiple injuries to their defensive line.

Why Bears cover: Rams are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings. Struggling Jay Cutler plays much better at home than on the road. QB Kyle Boller (66.6 rating) has been shaky in place of Marc Bulger.

Total (41): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals (-13)

Why Lions cover: Bengals are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. With a two-game lead in the AFC North, Cincinnati could be looking past Detroit to its game against Minnesota in Week 14.

Why Bengals cover: They’ve won six of the last seven meetings. Larry Johnson looked great last week and they will get Cedric Benson back as well. Lions are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Bengals allow a league-low 15.8 points per game.

Total (42): Under is 12-4-1 in Bengals’ last 17 home games and 5-2 in their last seven games overall.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)

Why Titans cover: They’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and 5-0 SU and ATS since Vince Young has taken over as the starting quarterback. Colts are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games. Can keep slim playoff hopes alive with a victory.

Why Colts cover: They’re 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games and they held RB Chris Johnson to 34 yards rushing in Week 4. Peyton Manning threw for 309 yards and three TDs against a weak Titans pass defense in the last meeting.

Total (47): Under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)

Why Texans cover: They’re 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five in Jacksonville. Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Need a win to keep slim playoff hopes alive. Matt Schaub has a 105.3 passer rating in three career games against Jacksonville.

Why Jaguars cover: They’ve won three of the last five meetings. Maurice Jones-Drew torched Houston for 147 total yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 Week 3 victory as 4-point underdogs.

Total (46.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)

Why Broncos cover: Chiefs are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games. Kyle Orton shook off his ankle injury to post 245 passing yards against the Giants last week. The Chiefs are allowing 258 passing yards per game.

Why Chiefs cover: Home team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Broncos are1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Kansas City. Jamaal Charles has been outstanding in place of departed Larry Johnson. Team will get an emotional lift as deceased Hall of Fame linebacker has his number retires before the game.

Total (38): Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings and 7-1 in the last eight games in Kansas City.

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)

Why Raiders cover: Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Steelers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Bruce Gradkowski has thrown for three touchdowns and one interception in two games since talking over for JaMarcus Russell as the team’s starting quarterback.

Why Steelers cover: They’ve won five of the last seven meetings. They’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Will likely get Ben Roethlisberger back from head injury. Oakland struggles to stop the run and Pittsburgh likes to pound the ball.

Total (37): Under is 4-1 in Raiders’ last five road games and 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins (+9.5)

Why Saints cover: They’re 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Redskins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. They have six players with 20 or more receptions making them very hard to defend and giving Drew Brees plenty of options.

Why Redskins cover: They’ve won four of the past six meetings. Could be a letdown game for the Saints after they dismantled the Patriots on Monday Night Football. Jason Campbell lit up New Orleans for 321 yards and TD in the last meeting.

Total (47): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+12.5)

Why Chargers cover: They’ve won six of the last seven meetings. They’re 4-0 ATS in their last four games. Browns are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Browns will be without Jamal Lewis who was lost for the season last week.

Why Browns cover: Inclement weather could benefit the Browns who like to run the ball and employ a short yardage passing attack. Brady Quinn is playing smarter football in his second chance this season. In his first three starts he had one touchdown and five turnovers; in his last three, he has thrown four TDs with two interceptions.

Total (43): Under is 5-2 in Browns’ last seven home games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)

Why Vikings cover: They’re 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. QB Brett Favre is averaging 290 yards passing per game in his last nine and has 21 touchdowns and only three interceptions in those games.

Why Cardinals cover: They’re 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Could get Kurt Warner back from his concussion. The Cardinals have really turned their running game around. The club is averaging over 131 per game over their last six contests.

Total (48): Under is 4-1 in Vikings’ last five games.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1)

Why Cowboys cover: Giants are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. Eli Manning is battling a foot injury that has affected his performance. New York’s linebackers are banged up.

Why Giants cover: Cowboys are 3-7-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and 1-3-1 ATS. Since becoming the Cowboys’ starting quarterback, Tony Romo has struggled in December going 5-8.

Total (45): Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings and 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in New York.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-1)

Why 49ers cover: They’re 3-0-2 ATS in their last five road games and 7-2-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They blew out the Seahawks by 13-points in Week 2 as 1-point faves. Frank Gore torched Seattle for 207 yards rushing and two scores in that game.

Why Seahawks cover: They’re 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight home games. They will get Julius Jones back to compliment Justin Forsett in the running game.

Total (41): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+5)

Why Patriots cover: They’ve won four of the past five meetings. They’re 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 road games. Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. QB Chad Henne hasn’t proved he can shoulder the load if Miami has to try and keep up via the passing game.

Why Dolphins cover: They’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC East. Need a victory to stay in the AFC East race. Covered as 10.5-point underdogs at New England in Week 8 by rushing for 133 yards. Laurence Maroney has sparked the Pats ground game with eight TDs in his last six games.

Total (46): Over is 5-0 in Dolphins’ last five home games.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Why Ravens cover: They’re 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. After a slow start Baltimore’s defense is back to normal holding opponents to 11.6 points per game over its last six. RB Ray Rice has at least 100 yards from scrimmage in eight straight games.

Why Packers cover: Ravens are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. QB Aaron Rodgers has been on fire over his last three games throwing for 881 yards and six touchdowns. Ravens QB Joe Flacco, on the other hand, is struggling. He’s thrown three interceptions and taken 11 sacks in his last five games with only one touchdown.

Total (44): Under is 4-1 in Ravens’ last five games.