Sports talk
NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 10/31
jizzle24 over 2 years ago

Games to Watch – Week 9
By Chris David

Texas at Oklahoma State

Skinny

Texas (7-0 SU, 2-4 ATS) is starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, but the school still needs to jump one last hurdle. The third-ranked Longhorns will head to Stillwater this Saturday for a Big 12 South showdown against Oklahoma State (6-1 SU, 3-2 ATS). The Longhorns are coming off back-to-back wins against Oklahoma (16-13) on Oct. 17 and Missouri (41-7) last Saturday. QB Colt McCoy saved his best game (84%, 3 TDs) for last week and appears to be back on track after a slow start. The Longhorns defense (235 YPG, 13.6 PPG) continues to dominate opponents, especially on third downs (22%), which is the best conversion rate in the country. The unit will face another test when they meet Oklahoma State and QB Zac Robinson (1,547 yards, 12 TDs), who leads an attack that is averaging 37 PPG. What’s more impressive is that the Cowboys have been shorthanded this season. RB Kendall Hunter (ankle) has missed six games due to an injury and All-American WR Dez Bryant hasn’t played in the last three games (suspension). Hunter has been listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday while Bryant continues to hope for a reinstatement by the NCAA. If OSU pulls off the upset here, it will be favored in its next three games before the season finale in Norman against intrastate rival Oklahoma. A win for Mack Brown and Texas would all but clinch a trip to the Big XII title game for the school, which would be the first visit since 2005.

Gambling Notes

This head-to-head series has been owned by Texas, who has won 11 straight and 16 of the last 17 matchups. Despite the dominance, the Longhorns have only won the past two by a combined seven points, including last year’s 28-24 victory in Austin. Even though the game was tight, McCoy went nuts (391 yards, 3 total TDs) against the Cowboys and OSU’s Hunter (192 total yards) also had a solid game too. After this game, Texas wound up falling to Texas Tech 39-33 the following week in Lubbock. We note that setback because the Longhorns haven’t lost since then. Gamblers chasing Texas finally cashed tickets last week at Mizzou but the school is just 2-5 ATS on the year. OSU stands at 3-2-1 ATS, which includes a 2-1 ATS mark at home. Head coach Mike Gundy has had seven chances to put the Cowboys on the map against teams ranked fifth or higher in the country. Unfortunately, OSU is 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS during this span and that includes a pair of double-digit defeats at home against those foes. Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. The total isn’t as high as previous years for this matchup but the ‘over’ is on a 4-2 run. The last three games in Stillwater saw point totals of 73, 75 and 71 posted on the scoreboard.

Southern California at Oregon

Skinny

The Pac 10 doesn’t have a title game but Saturday’s matchup between Southern California (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) and Oregon (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) from Autzen Stadium should help clear up the conference race. The Ducks are the only team in the Pac 10 without a loss (4-0) and Chip Kelly’s team has quietly ripped off six straight victories after losing to Boise State (19-8) in Week 1. What’s impressive about Oregon is that the defense (16.7 PPG, 297 YPG, 19 TOs) is catching up with the offense. Make no mistake that QB Jeremiah Masoli (12 total TDs) and the Oregon ground game (210 YPG) is key to the team’s success. The USC defense (291 YPG, 15.1 PPG) lost a ton of starters to the NFL but the group responded nicely by holding its first five opponents to 8.6 PPG. Unfortunately, something has gone wrong in the last two weeks with the Trojans. The unit has given up 27 and 36 points, more importantly a combined total of 849 yards. USC still managed to defeat Notre Dame and Oregon State but questions are looming. Fortunately, QB Matt Barkley and the offense have put up 930 yards and 76 points in the same span. After this game, Oregon faces another tough test at Stanford. Meanwhile, USC will stay on the road next Saturday for a battle in the desert against ASU before closing the year with three in a row from the Coliseum.

Gambling Notes

USC has dominated Oregon recently by winning four of the last five meetings, including a 44-10 blowout victory in 2008 as a 16-point home favorite. The Ducks actually held a 10-3 lead but the Trojans closed the game with 41 unanswered points. The lone win over the last five games did come in Eugene, when Oregon captured a 24-17 decision as a three-point home favorite. Pete Carroll and USC have been known to slip up in the Great Northwest and this year was no different as the team dropped a 16-13 decision to Washington on Sept. 19. The team is 3-1 SU on the road but just 1-3 ATS. After losing at Boise in Week 1, the Ducks barely got past Purdue (38-36) the very next week, failing to cover as 13-point favorites. Since that pair of games, Oregon has ripped off five straight covers. The weather on Saturday is expected to be a mix of wind and rain which might hinder the scoreboard operator, something familiar in recent encounters. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and five of the last six. USC opened as a four-point road favorite but the early money has watched the number drop to 3.

Other Games to Watch

Southern Mississippi at Houston

Houston (6-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) continues to quietly have a great season and some might wonder if the Cougars deserve a shot at a BCS bowl game? Still a lot of games to be played but Houston is ranked 18th in the latest BCS poll and does own wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Another question surrounding this school is if QB Case Keenum (2,734 yards, 70%, 20 TDs) is worthy of Heisman Trophy consideration? If the Cougars post a 12-1 record, it’s hard to argue against Kevin Sumlin’s squad. The sledding gets tougher this weekend for Keenum and company when Southern Mississippi (5-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) heads to Texas. The point-spread (Hou -6.5) says a lot on this contest and three of the last four have been decided by six or less.

Central Michigan at Boston College

Another BCS mid-major making quietly making noise this year is Central Michigan (7-1 SU, 6-1 ATS). The Chippewas’ odds of making a big-time bowl game are slim to none but the school is only a 19-7 opening week loss at Arizona from being undefeated. The MAC is garbage this year but a nicely timed non-conference tilt this weekend at Boston College (5-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) is a great test for CMU. This will be the third straight road game for the Chips and those following BC this year know that the school has been great at home (5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) but garbage on the road (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS). The Eagles are 2-0 all-time against the Chips, which includes a 3-24 win in 2006. Gamblers backing CMU in this spot can take a shot on a nice money-line price of +180.

Florida at Georgia

The game often called “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” doesn’t have as much luster this year but anything can happen when Florida (7-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) and Georgia (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) collide from Jacksonville. A victory for Urban Meyer and his troops would lock up a berth in the SEC Championship, which would be their third in the last four seasons. The Gators offense hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately but the defense is coming off a performance of four sacks and three interceptions against Mississippi State. And that came without three starters too. Florida has won three of the last four (2-2 ATS) in this series, including a 49-10 blowout win last year. The total has gone 2-2. The Gators are laying 16 1/2-points at most books, which is the highest line in this series since 2001.