Sunday 11-16 Service Plays
top dollar (GOLD MEMBER) about 1 month ago // 12 responses // TopSportsBets.com Other Service Plays

Dr. Bob

MIAMI (-10.5) 24 Oakland 14

Oakland’s defense played incredibly well last week against a good Carolina offense, allowing the Panthers just 219 yards at 4.0 yards per play and that unit has been better than average since allowing 7.9 yppl on opening night against Denver. Unfortunately, the Raiders’ offense continues to struggle and has averaged just 7 points over their last 5 games. Miami is a bit worse than average defensively so the Raiders will probably have a few scoring opportunities in this game, especially if their huge special teams advantage over the Dolphins sets them up in good field position. My math model actually favors Miami by just 8 points in this game, but Oakland applies to a negative 2-22 ATS subset of a 13-44 ATS situation that plays against slumping teams on the road. However, Miami also applies to a couple of big favorite letdown situations – although none of them are as strong as the angle against the Raiders. I’ll lean slightly with Oakland at +10 ½ points or more.

ATLANTA (-6.5) 31 Denver 23

The Broncos have one of the better offensive teams in the NFL (6.3 yards per play), but they allow a horrendous 6.2 yppl on the defensive side of the ball and are a below average team after adjusting for their weak slate of opposing teams. Atlanta, meanwhile, is the surprise team of the NFL so far this season and rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has been impressive from the start. Ryan has averaged 7.0 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average quarterback) and the Falcons are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively and should have no trouble moving the ball on a banged up Broncos’ defense (to CB Bailey and top LB Williams are out) that couldn’t stop anyone when they were fully healthy. Denver will get their share of points too against a sub-par Falcons’ defense that rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team), but my math model favors Atlanta by 11 points. Unfortunately, the Falcons apply to a negative 13-47-1 ATS situation that serves to dampen my enthusiasm a bit – but I’ll still lean with Atlanta.

CAROLINA (-14.0) 26 Detroit 14

The Panthers are 3-0 ATS this season as a favorite of 7 points or more, winning those games by an average score of 25-5 and the Panthers should perform well on both sides of the ball in this game against the winless Lions. Newly signed veteran quarterback Daunte Culpepper showed flashes of his great arm last week and completed 5 of 10 passes for 104 yards after just one week of practice with his new team. Culpepper should be more comfortable with the offense and his receivers this week, but he’s averaged just 5.4 yards per pass play the last couple of years with Miami and Oakland, so there is no indication that Culpepper will resurrect a struggling Lions’ offense. Detroit’s defense is horrible and Carolina shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball in this game while their strong defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) should limit the Lions’ offense. My math model favors Carolina by 15 ½ points in this game but Detroit applies to a decent 58-21-1 ATS situation that plays on winless teams as big underdogs. Detroit has applied to that angle 3 times this season and they’re 3-0 ATS with spread wins at Minnesota (a 10-12 loss as a 13 point dog), at Houston (a 7 point loss as +9 ½), and at Chicago (a 23-27 loss as a 12 ½ point dog). I’ll lean with Detroit plus the points based on that situation.

GREEN BAY (-3.5) 23 Chicago 20

GREEN BAY (-3 ½) 23 Chicago 14 (with Grossman at QB for Chicago)
I’ll assume that Kyle Orton will be at quarterback for the Bears this week after 1 ½ games of Rex Grossman’s ineptitude. Grossman averaged a pathetic 3.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB), so I’m sure coach Lovie Smith would love to get Orton back under center. Orton practiced on Wednesday and is optimistic about his return to the lineup for this game. With Orton at the controls the Bears figure to move the ball pretty well, as Orton has been 0.5 yards per pass play better than average (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and gives the Bears a chance against a very good Packers’ secondary that has allowed just 5.2 yppp this season (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defense). The Packers problem is a run defense that has surrendered 5.2 ypr this season and even a below average Bears’ rushing attack (3.8 ypr against teams that would allow 4.2 ypr) should have success in this game. Chicago’s defense defends the run very well (3.3 ypr allowed) but I rate the Bears as a bit below average against the pass and Aaron Rodgers should post good numbers. My math model favors Green Bay by just 2 ½ points with Orton at quarterback for the Bears and by 9 points with Grossman at quarterback for Chicago. Orton is listed as questionable (as of Wednesday night), but I have a feeling he will play.

Arizona (-2.5) 26 SEATTLE 22

Seattle gets quarterback Matt Hasselbeck back this week after a 5 game absence and he’ll return with a better receiving corps to throw to than he had earlier this season. I still expect the Seahawks to be below average throwing the football, but they do have a good rushing attack and should at least resemble a team that is capable of moving the football. Arizona is solid defensively and the Seahawks will have a tough time keeping up with the Cardinals’ potent attack that has averaged 6.1 yards per play and rates at 1.0 yppl better than average in 7 games with Anquan Boldin teaming with Larry Fitzgerald at wide receiver. My math model favors Arizona by 7 points even after upwardly adjusting Seattle’s offensive ratings with Hasselbeck returning to the lineup. I’ll just lean with Arizona in this game since Seattle applies to a 75-29-2 ATS statistical profile indicator while Arizona applies to a negative 125-196-16 ATS statistical indicator.

SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) 26 St. Louis 19

The only thing keeping the 49ers from being a pretty good team is the turnovers, as the Niners have out-gained their opponents 5.4 yards per play to 5.3 yppl this season while also possessing very strong special teams. San Francisco is -13 in turnover margin, which is keeping them from reaching their potential, but it is unlikely that they’ll continue to be as negative in turnovers going forward, especially with Shaun Hill taking over at quarterback for mistake prone J.T. O’Sullivan. Hill committed 3 turnovers in the Niners’ agonizing 24-29 loss in Arizona on Monday night, but his 6 career turnovers (3 interceptions and 3 fumbles lost) in 4 ½ career games is much better than O’Sullivan’s 17 turnovers (11 picks and 6 lost fumbles) in 7 ½ games this season. With the Niners’ likely to turn the ball over fewer times they should have no trouble beating a horrible Rams team that has been out-gained 4.7 yppl to 6.5 yppl this season. In fact, my math model favors the 49ers by 14 points in this game. Unfortunately the Niners apply to a negative 58-124-1 ATS statistical profile indicator while the Rams apply to a 40-12-1 ATS subset of a 97-43-2 ATS blowout bounce-back situation. This is a tough game to call with the math going so strongly in one direction and the situation going so strongly in the other. I’ll lean slightly with San Francisco by -7 or less.

JACKSONVILLE 19 Tennessee (-2.5) 18

I’m not that impressed with Jacksonville so far this season, as the Jaguars have been out-gained 5.2 yppl to 5.7 yppl, but Tennessee is hardly dominating (out-gaining teams just 5.0 yppl to 4.5 yppl) and the Jaguars apply to a very good 76-27-2 ATS situation that won for me last month with Green Bay beating Indianapolis by 20 points. My main math model favors Indy by just 1 ½ points, but a different math model I’ve been working on (which has been better over the year and a half I’ve been testing it) favors the Titans by 5 points. I’d certainly like Jacksonville more if they were getting a solid 3 points (at -1.10 odds), but I will still favor the Jags as an underdog of less than 3 points based on the strong situation.

PITTSBURGH (-5.0) 20 San Diego 17

The Chargers seem to play to the level of their competition and the average margin of their 5 losses this season is just 4.6 points, so there’s a good chance this one will be decided late. This game will be determined by how well San Diego’s explosive offense (6.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) performs against Pittsburgh’s dominating defense that has yielded just 3.9 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. The Steelers appear to have an edge in that battle and they haven’t allowed more than 4.7 yppl in any game this season, which includes games against good offensive teams Philadelphia (4.2 yppl against Pitt), the Giants (4.5 yppl) and the Colts (4.7 yppl). Pittsburgh’s offense has been the problem this season, as that unit has averaged only 4.8 yppl with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. The Chargers are 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively, but they have an edge over Pitt’s sorry offense. My math model favors the Steelers by 6 points, but San Diego applies to a solid 229-115-9 contrary indicator and I’ll lean with the Chargers plus the points.

WASHINGTON 23 Dallas (-1.5) 20

Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys, but the Redskins remain an underrated team. Washington has out-gained their opponents 5.6 yards per play to 4.8 yppl this season and they rate at 0.2 yppl better than average offensively and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively while playing mostly error free football (just 8 turnovers in 9 games). Dallas is 1.5 yppl better than average in 6 games with Tony Romo at quarterback, so they do have an edge over Washington’s stout defense if Romo plays at his normal level, and the Cowboys’ defense (0.4 yppl better than average) has a slight edge on Washington’s offense. Despite Dallas being a better team from the line of scrimmage, the Redskins are favored by my math model by 2 points on the basis of an edge in projected turnovers, special teams, and the home field advantage. Washington also applies to a decent 79-31-2 ATS statistical profile indicator and the Redskins are the percentage play in this game.

BUFFALO (-5.0) 24 Cleveland 19

Brady Quinn played pretty well in his NFL debut against Denver last week, as he averaged 6.8 yards per pass play without throwing an interception. The yardage number is actually below average considering Denver would allow 6.9 yppp on the road to an average quarterback, but Quinn should have another pretty good outing against a below average Bills’ secondary that is without their best player in S Donte Whitner. Buffalo gave up 6.5 yppp to a poor passing Patriots team last week without their star defensive back their defense has been getting steadily worse as the season has progressed. Cleveland’s defense is in even worse shape, as the Browns have allowed 6.0 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Buffalo is 0.2 yppl below average offensively, but they should move the ball pretty well in this game. Cleveland has gone 3-3 since starting the season with 3 losses and the Bills have lost 4 of 5 games since their 4-0 start to the season and my math model favors Buffalo by only 2 ½ points in this game. Buffalo does apply to a 63-23-2 ATS Monday night home team angle and a 46-15-4 ATS subset of a 123-63-8 ATS statistical indicator, so I’ll pass on this game.

Pointwise Phone

3
Jacksonville
Pittsburgh
New Orleans
Cleveland

2
Houston
Dallas

Ron Raymond

5* Ravens / Giants Under 40.5

Spylock

1 unit Kansas City

SPORTS WISE GUYS

Tennessee -3 over Jacksonville
Kansas City +5 over New Orleans
Denver +5.5 over Atlanta
Philadelphia/Cincinnati Over 42.5
Dallas/Washington Under 45.5

Brandon Lang

30 Dime Jaguars

10 Dime 10-point Sweetheart Teaser Falcons/Colts/Giants

FREE – Arizona
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #7 on: Today at 12:20:10 AM »

Big Al

3* Oakland/Miami Over 38.5
3* Washington Redskins +1
3* Tampa Bay Bucs 4
3* New Orleans Saints 5
1* New York Giants -7
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #8 on: Today at 12:21:13 AM »

BEN BURNS

REVENGE GAME OF YEAR
Jacksonville

NON CONFERENCE GAME OF WEEK
Denver

NON DIVISIONAL BEST BET
San Diego
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #9 on: Today at 12:21:46 AM »

GREG PRICE

HOME PUPPY
Seattle

10* AFC GAME OF WEEK
San Diego

EARLY WINNER
Minnesota
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #10 on: Today at 12:22:08 AM »

SEAN HIGGS

AFC SOUTH GAME OF MONTH

Jacksonville
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #11 on: Today at 12:25:34 AM »

ASA

NFL 5-Game POWER PACK – 80% on the season!

PLAY ON Top Game Home Team Hammer – Pittsburgh (-) vs. San Diego

While many of the national pundits continue to speak of San Diego?s awaited emergence and how they are still one of the teams to beat in the AFC, the Chargers simply continue to play poor football. Folks, this is not a good team and it isnt changing during their trip to Pittsburgh. The Steelers are coming off a home loss, so expect them to be ultra angry in this one. This team has been very solid at home off a home loss historically tallying a 15-6 spread record dating back to 1986. It doesnt happen often, however when it does, the Steelers usually bounce back with a win and cover. San Diego has been really poor on the road this year. They have played away from Southern California five times this year and come up with only one victory. That win can be pushed aside because it was @ Oakland where everyone seems to win. The Bolts even struggled as they were behind 15-0 at half and were out gained by the offensively challenged Raiders. In fact, the only road game where the Chargers actually had more total yards than their opponent was against the Saints (by just 42 yards) and that was still a loss and actually on a neutral field. Look for the SD offense to struggle big time on Sunday. This team has played just one opponent this ENTIRE YEAR whos defense is currently ranked inside the top 10. That was Carolina back on September 7th and a home loss for the Chargers. Now they attempt to put up points against the #1 overall defense in NFL and they are off loss. The 4-point loss at home to Indy last week was not the fault of the defense who continues to play stellar. They held the Colts to just 62 yards rushing and Peyton Manning completed just 21 of his 40 pass attempts. The problem was turnovers on offense. Ben Roethlisberger threw three interceptions and apologized to his team after the loss. Look for a much better effort from Roethlisberger on Sunday. He will also get a nice reprieve playing a Charger defense that ranks 26th overall in the NFL and dead last (32nd) against the pass. We?ll definitely side with the riled up home team with the FAR superior defense. Lay the points with the Black & Gold.

PLAY ON Insider Chalk – Tampa Bay (-) vs. Minnesota

The Bucs are fresh after a bye last week. Minnesota wont be after a down to the wire physically and emotionally draining game with division rival Green Bay last Sunday. You?ll definitely be able to see a drastic difference on the field Saturday because of this, among other things. Tampa has been a dominating home team this year winning all four by at least 9 points. Their closest home game was a 30-21 win over the Packers. They also whipped up on two very good teams at home rolling over Carolina 27-3 and Atlanta 24-9. Their other home win was a 10-point victory over Seattle. The Bucs have out gained their opponents at home by an average of 120 YPG. Their defense has been lights out at Raymond James Stadium holding each of their four opponents to 282 total yards or less. They have given up an average of just 218 total YPG in those four and just 10 PPG. That will be a big problem for a pedestrian Minnesota offense that relies so heavily on Adrian Peterson. Tampa allows just 99 YPG on the ground in order for the Vikings to stay in this they will rely heavily on QB Gus Frerotte. Problem is, Frerotte has not been playing well. In his last four games he has thrown nine interceptions and dont expect that to change against the #5 pass defense in the league on Sunday. The Vikes have been a ?go against? team on the road this season. They are just 1-3 both SU and ATS away from the Metrodome. Also, their one road win was a 30-27 gift at New Orleans. The Saints dominated that game but turned the ball over 4 times and Minny also blocked a field goal and returned it for a TD. Otherwise, they would be staring 0-4 in the face for their road record. Tampa is coming off two sub par performance vs. Dallas and KC, however both of those games were on the road. They have now had two weeks off to rectify their problems and we expect a great effort on Sunday. QB Jeff Garcia has been very good completing 68% of his passes and he should continue his success vs. Minnesota who has the 19th ranked pass defense in the NFL. Tampa is in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive total yards and should roll on Sunday. The Vikes have a definite letdown and Tampa comes out on fire. We?ll lay the small number.

PLAY ON Total of the Day – Under the total, Detroit vs. Carolina

Both of these teams struggled mightily on offense last week. Carolina put up just 17 points @ Oakland while the Lions managed only 10 points at home vs. the Jags. Dont expect a big change this Sunday. The Lions are in transition as Daunte Culpepper took over at QB after just a few days of practice last week. He threw only 10 passes in last Sunday?s loss to Jacksonville. Don?t expect that to change a whole lot as Culpepper has not been able to get very deep into the playbook in his short time with the team. Detroit has averaged just over 16 PPG this year and that was when they had QB?s that actually have been in the system and were able to run a vast array of offensive plays. Now with Culpepper under center and a scaled back playbook, we can only anticipate this offense will struggle even more than they have over the next few weeks. It doesnt help that they are facing a Panther defense that had allowed an average of just 11 PPG in their five home games this year. The Panthers offense was terrible last week against an Oakland team that had allowed 24 points or more in 5 of their previous 6 games. QB Jake Delhomme was terrible throwing four interceptions. He also completed just 7 of his 27 attempts for 72 yards. Carolina head coach John Fox will not want to take any chances with this poor Detroit team. Especially with Delhomme coming off a poor performance and struggling against Oakland, look for Carolina to grab a lead and run, run, run. Carolina has played 9 games this year and 8 of them have failed to top 40 points. The Panthers are the #2 defense in the NFL in points allowed and Detroit is not a team that will alter that stat with their struggling offense. Carolina also has the league?s 10th best rushing offense while Detroit cant stop the run allowing 161 YPG. Expect a heavy dose of the ground game, shortening this game and keeping it well under the total.

PLAY ON Seattle + vs. Arizona

The Smart Money is all over Seattle on this one and we agree 100%. Nearly 75% of the wagers have come in on the Cards yet the line has remained on 3-points the entire week. It hasnt budged one bit. Thats because the few smart money guys who are among the 25% wagering on Arizona, have put down enough to keep this line stable. The odds makers are begging you to take the Cards here and we wont appease them. We like Seattle. The Seahawks have actually been playing fairly well as of late. Three weeks ago they went into San Fran and dominated the Niners winning 34-13 (the same SF team that Arizona struggled with at home on Monday Night). The following week the Hawks lost to a desperate, but very good Philadelphia team that is trying to keep pace in the NFC East. Last Sunday they went to a good Miami team and nearly pulled off the win losing 21-19. This team is still playing hard for Mike Holmgren who is in his final year as Seattle?s head coach. Seattle has had some struggles on offense this year. The main problem has been their passing attack which is averaging just 145 YPG. That is way down from last year when they threw for 248 YPG. Look for those numbers to move drastically upward on Sunday as QB Matt Hasselbeck is back under center for the first time since October 5th. Hasselbeck practiced with no ill affects all week and will get the start vs. Arizona. He is also getting one of his key weapons back as WR Deion Branch will play also for the first time since October 5th. Expect the Seattle offense to look better than it has in quite some time. Arizona is in an absolute horrible spot. They had a come from behind win on Monday night beating San Francisco 29-24. The Cardinals aren?t used to the limelight because they have simply been a poor team for much of their time in Arizona. In fact, last Monday was their FIRST Monday Night win since moving to Arizona 20 years ago. You think there is any chance they avoid a letdown after that. No way. Not only that, this is basically a meaningless game for the Cardinals as they stand at 6-3 in the NFC West while the closest team to them is just 2-7. They have that division wrapped up. Arizona has won just once in Seattle since 1993 (1-6 SU). They have also been a historically terrible road team with a record of just 16-60 their last 76 trips outside of Arizona. With a home game vs. the Super Bowl Champion Giants on deck, we can?t fault the Cards for not having their full focus on the struggling Seahawks. We call for the upset and watch Seattle win at home with Hasselbeck at the helm.

PLAY ON Under the Total, Oakland vs. Miami

There is absolutely no question that Oakland has problems scoring, or even moving the football down the field for that matter. The Raiders were shut out two weeks ago and totaled just 77 total yards of offense against the Falcons! As an encore last week, they scored just 6 points against the Panthers, even with Carolina QB Jake Delhomme doing his best job to let the Raiders win, (Delhomme finished 7/27 passing for 72 yards and 4 interceptions). The Dolphins will score enough points to win, and be able to put their offense on cruise control against Oakland in a game that will finish UNDER 38.5. The Raider defense has been respectable this season, but no defense can expect to keep their team in contention when their offense is THAT bad. Miami will be able to do what the Falcons and the Panthers did in consecutive weeks against the Raiders; get a comfortable lead and use their strong running game as a cruise control to get an easy win. Also, not that it matters too much, but the Dolphins have a great defense with a fierce pass rush that will further prevent the Oakland offense from scoring. Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington has been extremely efficient in his first season in Miami, completing 67% of his passes for 2200 yards and 8 touchdowns. Miami has also used talented running backs Ronnie Brown (504 yards, 9 TD?s) and Ricky Williams (388 yards, 3 TD?s) very effectively in the new and improved ?Wildcat? formation. Miami doesnt make a lot of mistakes and that?s a big reason why they are a surprising 5-4 this season and in the playoff hunt. Its no surprise that the Raiders have finished UNDER in four of their last five games, but the Dolphins have also won three straight games, and finished UNDER in all three. This trend will continue as the Dolphins will jump out to a comfortable lead, and be able to use their strong running game to milk the clock and get the win. Easy UNDER play here.
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #12 on: Today at 01:47:18 AM »

DOC

SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF YEAR

Dallas

5* Jacksonville
3* Bills
3* Ravens
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #13 on: Today at 05:37:26 AM »

2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
25 Units each
75 Unit NFL 2-Team Parlay

Ny Giants (-7) over Ravens
49ers (-6½) over Rams

2008 CHAIRMAN’S CLUB FOOTBALL

10 Units
Seahawks (+3) over Cardinals

2008 BEST BETS FOOTBALL
3 Units
Bears (+3½) over Packers

5 Units
Dolphins (-10) over Raiders
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #14 on: Today at 05:39:13 AM »

JEFFERSONSPORTS 4-1 in coll football yest

NFL EARLY RELEASE
TITANS-2.5 (released early sat)

nfl early release
tampa bay-3 -125
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #15 on: Today at 09:03:25 AM »

ATS Lock Club
5 Packers -3
4 Steelers -4.5
4 Cowboys Pick
4 Creighton -3
3 Delaware 4.5

ATS Financial Package
4 Giants -7
4 Titans -2.5
3 Columbia +13.5
3 Rhode Island +24
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #16 on: Today at 09:03:59 AM »

Matt Rivers
1ST 500,000 OF THE ENTIRE SEASON Plus Bonus Lock
Your winners here are on:
1. 500,000♦ Jaguars
2. 75,000♦ Redskins
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #17 on: Today at 09:06:51 AM »

Advantage Sports

Oakland Raiders +10.5

Jacksonville Jaguars +3

Cincinnati Bengals +10

Detroit Lions +14.5

Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 42
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #18 on: Today at 09:07:44 AM »

Youngstown Connection

NFL Teaser

NY Giants Pick
Indianapolis -1
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #19 on: Today at 09:11:11 AM »

Larry Ness

NFL Las Vegas Insider

TAMPA BAY BUCS

Sunday Night Game of the Year

DALLAS COWBOYS

Late-Breaking Play

JACKSONVILLE JAGS

Oddsmaker’s Error-CBB

CREIGHTON
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« Reply #20 on: Today at 09:17:17 AM »

atslocks.co

Chargers Steelers -4.5: Steelers -4.5 (20 Unit Play)<br />Broncos Falcons -6.5: Falcons -6.5 (10 Unit Play)
Ravens Giants -7: Giants -7 (15 Unit Play)<br />Heat Raptrors Over/Under 188: Under (10 Unit Play)
William & Mary @ Ohio U -8: Ohio U -8 (10 Unit Play)
New Mexico +2 at Creighton: New Mexico +2 (5 Unit Play)
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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #21 on: Today at 09:28:34 AM »

PAUL LEINER 18-6 NBA totals

200 NFL Over 42 SD/Pitt
100* NBA Over 187.5 Tor/Mia
50* NFL Jaguars +3
10* NFL Ravens +7
50cent is online now Reply With Quote

Wunderdog

Philadelphia at Cincinnati
Pick: Philadelphia -9

As much as this looks like a game the Eagles could no-show, their are 10 teams in the NFC right now with an equal or better record. There is no playing with this game because an unexpected loss, and the Eagles are probably done. They are arguably the best 5-4 team in the league right now and certainly capable of a double-digit win in this one. Injuries to key players and a few bad breaks hurt them early. Those players have now gotten healthy and will make this team even better. The Eagles have the 9th rated defense in the league, have recorded 28 sacks, and will certainly be coming at Fitzpatrick with all kinds of blitz packages. Fitz’s four TD’s to six INT’s shows a pick-6 here is not out of the question. Donovan McNabb is having a big year and with Kevin Curtis back at WR, and a healthy Brian Westbrook, this offense is one of the toughest to stop. Cincinnati’s pass rush has mustered just nine sacks all season. McNabb will have all the time he needs to pick apart a suspect
secondary. This one has “UGLY” potential with a very good, underrated Eagles team needing a big win. The Eagles are 20-14 ATS as a road favorite under Andy Reid. I’ll lay the points here as a see a monster blowout.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2008, 12:36:45 PM »

Ben Burns

Game: Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Miami Dolphins

The Raiders played great defensively last week. However, the offense did absolutely nothing and the team suffered a very tough pointspread loss. Now they travel to the East Coast to play a game with a 1:00 ET kickoff, a situation that hasn’t been kind to them. Indeed, the last time the Raiders played an “early” game, they got smoked 29-10 at Baltimore and the previous time they got crushed 34-3 at New Orleans. The Raiders, who remain heavily penalized have nothing to play for, and its generally tougher to play for “pride” on the road than it is at home. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are in the middle of a dogfight in the extremely competitive AFC East. The Dolphins are 30-11-1 ATS their last 42 games against teams from the AFC West and they should be able to win this one convincingly. Consider laying the points.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2008, 12:40:41 PM »

LT Profits

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 38.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have one of the best defenses in all of football, and they have been downright impenetrable at home. The Minnesota will still try and run the ball with Adrian Peterson though, which will result in some time consuming drive that are conducive to an Under.

In reality, the Vikings have no choice but to run the ball often, because if they cannot run, it would make immobile quarterback Gus Frerotte a sitting duck for the lethal Tampa Bay pass rush.

Sure, the Buccaneers are allowing a miniscule 10.8 points and 69.0 rushing yards per game at home, but by the same token, Peterson will be the best running back they will have faced this season. While we do not expect AP to have a huge day against the devastating Tampa Bay unit, we do expect him to churn out some first downs just on his brilliant ability alone.

However, we do expect the Bucs to stiffen in the red zone and force the Vikings to settle for field goals. As a result, we do feel that Tampa Bay will have a lead of more than a touchdown at some point, and that is when Coach Jon Gruden usually turns ultra-conservative, turning the game over to his great defense.

We do not expect anything different here, so look for a relatively low scoring affair.

Pick: Vikings, Buccaneers Under 38.5
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2008, 12:42:51 PM »

Totals 4U

Ravens @ Giants

The Ravens continued their 4-game stretch of racking up big points against poor defenses (36.0 points per versus Dolphins, Raiders, Browns, and Texans) last week, crushing Houston 41-13 and now face their toughest test of the season for 6’6� 230 rookie QB Joe Flacco (151 of 243 for 1449 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT). Little could be more important to this kid’s success than his offensive line and it will be a man down this trip. Coach John Harbaugh most often uses a 6-man unbalanced line to protect Flacco (17 sacks) and bash the ball on the ground but RT Willie Anderson left in the 3rd quarter against the Texans with a ankle injury which slides 6th lineman 6’8� 330 RT Adam Terry into his slot. There’s nothing wrong with Terry – he was the protected starter before Baltimore picked up Anderson – but that likely eliminates the 6-man line or puts either 6’4� 310 UTEP rookie T/G Oniel Cousins or 6’6� 315 Weber State rookie David Hale in the game against a level of competition they have never faced. Either way, rushing the ball will primarily be the focus and Running Backs Coach Wilbert Montgomery has a dynamite trio that can all produce on the ground and sneaking out for short passed. Willis McGahee (125 for 463 yards and 5 TD rush, 14 for 113 receive), 5’8� 205 rookie Ray Rice (77 for 356 rush, 20 for 190 receive), and 6’1�250 rookie Le’Ron McClain (96 for 366 and 5 TD rush, 15 for 88 receive) rotate for an offense that grinds out the league’s 3rd-best 150.2 rush yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry. Quaterbacks Coach Hue Jackson has done a phenomenal job with not just Flacco but also Troy Smith and Todd Bouman but stretching the field just hasn’t been part of the plan. WR Mark Clayton (20 for 225 yards and TD) and WR Derrick Mason (46 for 598 and 2 TD) – who returned to the game to catch 3 balls after suffering a 1st quarter separated shoulder against the Texans – have had to share the balls with the backs while TE Todd Heap (18 for 195 and 2 TD) has been used primarily in the blocking game as a 7th lineman. It seems a waste for a talent like Heap but he did finally have his first big game of the season last week, grabbing 5 balls for 58 yards and his first 2 scores of 2008.

As lacking in big plays as Baltimore’s offense has been, the defense has piled them up. 19 sacks, 14 interceptions, 6 fumble recoveries, and 3 touchdowns can keep a crew in most games and are certainly enough to win against the bad defenses they have faced the last month. Then decision was finally made this week to place both SS Dawan Landry and LCB Chris McAlister on the IR with knee injuries which is actually a plus because neither has played in weeks and were just taking up roster spots. 5’8� 186 SS Jim Leonard (36 T, S) has outplayed his size alongside 5’11� 200 FS Ed Reed (21 T) while the cornerback trio of 5’11� 196 Frank Walker (23 T, I), 5’11� 180 Fabian Washington (16 T), and 5’9� 190 Corey Ivy (33 T, S) have pieced together the rest of the unit in place of McAlister and 6’0� 175 RCB Samari Rolle (6 T, 2 I) who missed time earlier in the season. The obvious question is with this overall lack of size, just who the hell is going to cover the 6’5� 232 Burress, 6’3� 203 Toomer, and 6’6� 253 Boss? Pressure on the pocket will be all the more critical this week and the front line of Baltimore’s 3-4 defense is dynamite. 6’5� 290 LDE Trevor Pryce (17 T, 4 S), 6’3� 310 NT Justin Bannan (27 T, S, INT), and 6’4� 345 RDE Haloti Ngata (27 T, S, 2 INT) does much more than hold the point. This group also gets to the quarterback themselves better than most from threes plus bat a ton of balls that have racked 3 picks by the line plus a pair each by ROLB Terrell Suggs (39 T, 5 S, 2 INT) and LILB Ray Lewis (63 T, S, 2 INT). RILB Bart Scott (41 T, S) and LOLB Jarret Johnson (34 T, 2 S) have been solid but also keep your eye out for 6’1� 250 Syracuse rookie OLB Jameel McClain (9 T, 2 S) who has demonstrated he has real outside skill for a guy that has an inside build. By the numbers, the Ravens allow 16.7 points (#5 NFL) on 258.4 yards (#2) per game with just 65.4 of those yard coming on the ground at 2.9 yards per carry with only a single rushing TD surrendered through 9 games.

New York (8-1) The Giants pounded the Eagles into submission Sunday night, 36-21, with 219 rushing yards as 4.9 yards per carry in a dominating performance by the offensive line of Diehl, Seubert, O’Hara, Snee, and McKenzie (11 sacks for the year) who allowed Jim Johnson defense only a single sacks while getting flagged not one time. That makes 4 games in which New York has surpassed the 200 yard mark through 9 games and a tip of the hat must also go to receivers Plaxico Burress (32 for 407 and 4 TD), Domenik Hixon (13 for 220 and TD), Amani Toomer (29 for 356 and 2 TD), and Steve Smith (35 for 340 and TD) plus TE Kevin Boss (19 for 217 and 4 TD) who unquestionably block downfield better than any group in the National Football League. Behind these cats, bruisers 6’4� 264 RB Brandon Jacobs (153 for 806 and 9 TD) and 5’11� 228 Derrick Ward (89 for 490 and TD rush, 23 for 212 receive) led by extremely physical 6’3� 266 Madison Hedgecock have been given the extra stride to unload on defenders, often creating reach-tacking come the second half. Mix in a speedy kid like 5’9� 198 2nd-year back Ahmad Bradshaw (36 for 205 and TD) and big plays are inevitable. With the league’s #1 ground attack at 168.9 yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry, it’s a wonder why Coach Tom Coughlin even bothers to throw and with Eli Manning at the trigger it’s clearly a second option. Ok, Manning (170 of 281 for 1926 yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) has won his share of fans but who couldn’t succeed in this situation? With 64 games in the career books, kid brother has completed 1154 passes in 2077 attempts for 13, 245 yards with 91 scores and 70 picks. That’s basically 4 full regular seasons with average 16-game marks of 288 of 519 (55.5% completion rate) for 3311 yards with 22.8 TD versus 17.5 INT and an overall passer rating of 75.5. Pretty pedestrian behind this kind of rushing game and the single weakness that opponents have a chance to exploit. By the numbers, New York’s offense piles up 29.1 points (#2 NFL) on 347.7 yards (#4) per game.

Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuola’s group is our selection from the best in pro football. The numbers of 17.8 points (#6 NFL) on 264.8 yards (#3) per game may indicate that as a slight exaggeration but watching this crew play, you can’t help but surmise that the Giant stoppers can crank it down any time they wish and in a playoff situation we suspect you would see this unit play at a gear that other good defenses just don’t have. Up front, the foursome of 6’5� 274 LDE Justin Tuck (39 T, 8 S, 2 FF), 6’4� 306 LDT Barry Cofield (24 T, 2 S), 6’4� 317 RDT Fred Robbins (21 T, 6 S), and 6’5� 265 RDE Mathias Kiwanuka (26 T, 6 S) plus backups DT Jay Alford (6 T, 2 S) and DE Dave Tollefson (15 T, 4 S) are the most productive bunch in the country, racking up 28 of the team’s 32 sacks, and getting 10 from the tackle position shows what double-teaming gets you. SLB Danny Clark (37 T) and MLB Antonio Pierce (47 T, 2 S, 2 FF) have been free to roam behind this wall while backup Chase Blackburn (27 T, S) has been sharp in rotation and 6’2� 237 BYU rookie OLB Bryan Kehl has impressed all with his speed to the ball in relief of WLB Gerris Wilkinson (8 T) with 27 stops plus an interception. If you get past the front 7, don’t expect to play patty-cake with a bunch of self-styled “athletes� and “entertainers�. The New York defensive backfield can flat-out shake your teeth loose. 6’2� 210 Miami-Florida rookie S Kenny Phillips (40 T, INT) got his first start last week in place of 6’3� 215 James Butler (37 T, 2 INT) against the Eagles and finished 2nd on the team with 5 solo tackles. He will play alongside 6’2� 207 S Michael Johnson (37 T, 2 INT) to provide major punch across the middle. Little corners? Not a chance! LCB Aaron Ross (36 T) and RCB Corey Webster (25 T, S, 3 INT) measure in at 6’0� 197 and 6’0� 202 – big enough to play safety on most squads. Not much depth? Guess again! Try veteran players like DB’s Sam Madison, Sammy Knight, and RW McQuarters to fill out the nickel and dime. Offensive coordinators must feel like Sisyphus, but in reality he was cursed to ceaselessly roll his rock up the hill for eternity while opponents only must face this mountain for the 26 minutes and 36 seconds per game that the Giants allow you to hold the rock.

SELECTION: Playing a defending Super Bowl Champion against the spread has rarely been a great 16-game strategy but just who is going to beat the Giants when they don’t want to be beaten? Not the Ravens and not this Sunday. Take New York –6 ½.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2008, 12:45:13 PM »

Mike Wynn

Denver @ Atlanta

Can’t help but be impressed with the rookie QB Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons this season. Atlanta 6-3 this season and they’re taking care of business at home with a 4-0 straight and ATS record this season. Atlanta just one game back of Carolina in the very competitive NFC South and a win here Sunday would be another big step toward a possible playoff spot. Denver Broncos on the other hand lead the weak AFC West with a 5-4 record but they’ve had to ride the arm of Jay Cutler and his 2616 yards of passing offense this season. So let’s take a look at both teams and we’ll start with the visiting Broncos.As I mentioned earlier the Broncos are 5-4 and leading the AFC West, but they certainly haven’t been a dominant team by any stretch of the imagination. Broncos defense the fourth worst in all the NFL allowing 390 yards per game this season, which has translated into nearly 28 points per game. Teams have had a field day running the ball against Denver as they’ve given up an average of 146 yards per game this season, and a whopping 195 on the road. But as bad as the defense has been the offense has been nearly as good. Denver scoring nearly 25 points per game this year and the offense begins and ends with Jay Cutler. Broncos rank first overall in offense in the AFC and first in passing. Cutler has been outstanding this season racking up 2616 yards through the air this season, and throwing 18 touchdown passes. Wide Receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal have been the beneficiaries with 57 & 52 catches each this season. Denver running game is a M.A.S.H. unit right now. Broncos have brought back Tatum Bell this week to help with the depleted running back corps. With Pittman, Torain, and Young out, the Broncos will rely on Peyton Hillis as their primary ball carrier. Hillis has just 11 carries this season for 38 yards, so to say the running game is suspect, is an understatement. If Denver is going to win they need the defense to step up big and they need Cutler to have a big game as well.Atlanta Falcons have no such problems in the running game like Denver does. The two-headed RB tandem of Turner & Norwood bring a big physical style of running that can wear down a defense like the Broncos if they can’t get off the field. Turner is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and Norwood 5.6 per, and it’s just what the doctored ordered for the rookie QB Matt Ryan. A big running game takes a lot of pressure off and Ryan has done as well you could expect a rookie QB to do. Ryan is completing about 60% of his passes and the 11 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio is solid. Atlanta offense is scoring 23.4 points per game this season and at home the number jumps dramatically to 32 points per contest, which is a big reason why the Falcons are still perfect at home both straight up and ATS. Atlanta defense does leave a bit to be desired however, as the Falcons rank twenty-third in the league giving up 346.7 yards per game this season. All and all Falcon fans have to be pleased with the way this team is playing and they’ll certainly be a factor down the stretch this season. Checking on the trends and tidbits for this game we find that Shanahan is a terrific 13-5 ATS road dog when the line is 3½-7 points, but the Broncos are just 8-18 ATS in all games played over the last 2 seasons. Falcons are dismal 26-44 ATS off a home win since 1992 and it gets even worse to 1-11 ATS if the win was by 10 points or more. With Denver’s lack of a running game you got to believe they’ll air it out here and I like this one to get over the total of 51 points. Denver defense will have a real tough time against the Falcon rush attack and both teams figure to put up significant numbers today. Denver a reliable 19-7 over in all games the last 2 seasons and a tremendous 10-1 over as an underdog over that same span. This game sets up to be high scoring and I don’t think they’ll disappoint us. Take this game over the total on Sunday.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2008, 12:46:05 PM »

Nevada Sharpshooter

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

The Bears travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers. The 5-4 Bears may are currently tied with the Vikings atop the NFC North with the Pack one game back at 4-5. Both teams have some injury issues. At the time I am writing this it is unclear if QB Kyle Orton will be able to play for the Bears and the Packers LB Nick Barnett is out for the season do to injury. Statiscally both of these teams appear to be average. The Bears can stop the run but struggle against the pass. Two weeks ago Chicago barely got by a horrible Lions team by a score of 27-23, before losing to a strong Tennessee team at home 21-14 last week. The Packers have lost their last two games both on the road, to Tennessee, 16-19 in OT and the Vikings last week 27-28 when they missed a 52 yard fg in the final minute. The Pack lost both games in the same fashion, they were unable to stop the running game in the 4th quarter.

In this game I like the Pack to get back on track at home. Chicago’s running game is not as strong as Tennessee’s or Minnesota’s and I believe QB Aaron Rodgers will be able to move the ball though the air vs the Bear defense. The Bear offense will suffer with either a banged up Orton or a turnover prone Grossman at the helm. Take the Pack -4 over the Bears as they jump out early and take Chicago out of the running game
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2008, 12:47:44 PM »

Dr. Vegas

Titans vs Jaguars

It’s hard to ignore the Titans’ 9-0 record. And what’s even more impressive is that that isn’t their best stat. Their 8-1 ATS mark is a huge indicator of the lack of respect Vegas has shown this team. With the exception of their 9-point line going into KC, the Titans have entered the rest of their games as small favorites (or even a dog or pk) of less than 5 points. This is despite the fact that they are winning their games outright by over 11 points per game. Moreover, they are covering the point spread but over 8 points per game.

Yet here they sit, facing a team that is 4-5 straight up and 3-6 against the spread, favored by a mere 3 points. The argument for Jacksonville to cover this game has some validity. They are approaching the “absolutely must win� phase. To have a shot at the playoffs, they will need to essentially run the table for the next month. Bringing down a behemoth like the Titans could give them the confidence and inspiration to do just that.

The first time these two teams faced was in the season opener on September 7. It’s funny to see now, but the Jags were favored by three on the road in Nashville. The Titans got the job done, winning 17-10 and held Jacksonville to only 33 rushing yards. Despite their win, the Titans showed no signs they would win their next 8. It was a close game to the end, with late scores by both teams.

And thus has been the case for the entire season with Tennessee. Every week Vegas expects their run to end. Every week Vegas thinks their opponent needs to win more than they do. And so far, every week (except one half-point ats loss) Vegas has been wrong.

Jacksonville needs to win. And Tennessee has to lose sometime, right? A loss wouldn’t affect them at all at this point. Vegas is sure banking on it. I’m not.

Take Tennessee -3 over Jacksonville.

Razor Sharp Sports

San Diego @ Pittsburgh

At the beginning of the season, you wouldn’t have had a very tough time convincing me that this could be very well be a preview of the AFC Championship game. The season hasn’t quite played out that way and now you would have a incredibly tough time sell me that same statement. The Steelers side of things would be the easier of the two halfs to convince me on, but the San Diego Chargers may be the biggest disappointment in the NFL so far this year. Still as disappointing as they have been, they are still just a game out of their division lead and the wildcard. So this week, this game may have lost a little of its luster, but it is still very important for both teams. Lets take a look at each of them.

First we have the San Diego Chargers. Heading into the year, you were looking at a team with quite possibly the best all-around player in the league in RB LaDainian Tomlinson. You had one of the best young arms at QB in Phillip Rivers, The best TE in all of football in Antonio Gates and one of the best defenses around with Shaun Merriman, Antonio Cromartie and Company. Now here we are in week 11 and they are just 4-5 and are coming off a 1 point victory over one of the worst football in the NFL in Kansas City and that was on a missed two-point conversion in the final minute. Offensively, they haven’t gotten the production out of Tomlinson that they have in the past. He has run for just 629 yards and just 4 TDs. They have gotten good production through the air. Rivers has completed over 65% of his passes for 2354 yards. He has thrown 21 TDs and just 8 ints. His QB rating is 1st in the NFL. Rivers has found TE Antonio Gates a team leading 38 times for 469 yards and 6 TDs. The real problem for the Chargers have been on the other side of the ball. This once top-ranked defense ranks 26th in yards allowed and 21st on points allowed. The loss of Merriman for the season due to a knee injury has hurt tremendously.

The Steelers have been one of those teams that you start putting them among the elite and then they get beat. They start 5-1 and have a big match-up against the Super Bowl Champion Giants and lose, but then they bounce back at Washington. Then they lose a big game at home against Indianapolis. There is one thing that has been the key to keeping the Steelers from rising to the top and that has been injury. RB Willie Parker has played in just 4 games. His back-up Rashard Mendenhall was lost for the season after 4 games and QB Ben Roethlisberger has been knocked out of games and continues to battle, while playing hurt. Roethlisberger’s numbers have been less than impressive. Dealing with injury, he has completed just 60% of his passes for 1686 yards 10 TDs and 11 ints. Unlike the Chargers, the Steelers defense is the reason they are winning. This team is 1st in the NFL in yards per game allowed at 240 yds/game and is 3rd in points with 140. They are just as tough on the ground or through the air. They are 2nd in Rush defense and 1st in pass defense.

Looking at these two teams and I expect the defenses to shine. The Steeler defense has been their all year and a banged up Steeler offense will be slowed down by an athletic Charger unit that hasn’t played up to their potential this year yet.Take the San Diego/Pittsburgh game UNDER the total of 43.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2008, 04:47:52 PM »

Cajun Sports

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Over 50.5

The boys from the Big Easy take their air show on the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. Before the season began many had this Saints team contending for the NFC South title but their inability to win on the road and inconsistent play has them looking up from the bottom of the division.

The Saints lost at Atlanta 34-20 last Sunday to fall to 0-4 on the road this season. They defeated San Diego 37-32 in London on Oct. 26, although they were considered the home team.

Drew Brees leads the NFL’s top-ranked offense, which is gaining 422.2 yards per game. He’s on pace to throw for a record-setting 5,309 yards. Brees has thrown for 1,290 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions in four road games compared to 1,695 yards, 13 TDs and four picks in five home contests.

Drew Brees and the Saints will face off against a Chiefs defense that has been decimated by injuries, as linebackers Derrick Johnson and Pat Thomas and defensive end Brian Johnston are listed as out for this game.

The Chiefs are allowing 420 yards per game on the defensive side of the ball. Their rush defense is giving up 202 yards per game on 6 yards per carry while their pass defense is allowing 218 yards passing per game and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Not good news when facing a Saints offense that leads the league with over 420 yards of offense per game.

Kansas City is coming off another tough loss, 20-19 at San Diego last Sunday that came a week after a 30-27 overtime loss to Tampa Bay.

While the Chiefs have lost five straight since a 33-19 victory over Denver on Sept. 28 and have one victory in their last 18 games, the offense has been solid thanks to Thigpen’s surprising play.

Thigpen threw for 128 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions in his first start, but has passed for 710 yards, six TDs and no picks in his last three.

Chiefs RB Larry Johnson returned Monday after being suspended for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. His return should help improve the Chiefs offensive play, in their lone win he rushed for 198 yards and two touchdowns.

The Saints are 29-7-1 Over on the road after playing when the line was within 3 of pick’em. The Saints are 15-2 Over as a road favorite when their opponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Saints are 15-3 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date. The Saints are 10-0 Over when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least 2 on the road and the line was within 3 of pick’em. The Saints are 13-3 Over as a road favorite. The Saints are 13-4 Over on the road when their opponent is on a 2 game losing streak.

The Chiefs are 16-4 Over as a dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. The Chiefs are 12-2 Over as a dog when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. The Chiefs are 13-2 Over as a home dog versus any team with more wins after playing on the road.

NFL teams are 71-33-4 Over when their opponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. NFL teams are 48-17-2 Over as a favorite when their opponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. NFL teams are 47-25-2 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. NFL teams are 23-9-1 Over at home the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog. NFL teams are 20-7 Over as a home dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog.

With strong technical and fundamental support we will make the “Over� in the Saints / Chiefs match up our 2* NFL FREE Total Play of the Week.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* New Orleans / Kansas City OVER 50.5
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2008, 04:49:03 PM »

Alex Smart

Miami Dolphins -10.0

The Oakland Raiders enter into this tilt against the Miami Dolphins playing some very inconsistent football behind , interim coach Tom Cable. The Dolphins on the other hand have won 3 in a row, under HC Sparano .

The Raiders offense has looked horrendous this season behind the lack of a stable pivot, as JaMarcus Russell, continues to suffer from tendinitis in his knee. The Raider QB and his ugly passing attack are ranked dead last in the league, averaging just 139.2 YPG. Needless to say, the Raiders offense becomes very easy to read , because of their one way ground game. Look for the Dolphins front 7 to play a nickel formation, and stack the box , as they dare the Raiders to throw the ball. (It must be noted that the Raiders have scored an average of just 12.6 PPG)

Meanwhile, the Dolphins behind a a lot of exotic looks out of wild cat formation, will use Tailbacks Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams , to give a stable, but over worked Raiders defense all they can handle on their way to some big runs , gains and scores.

Last year Oakland went into Miami and beat up the Fins by a lopsided 35-17 count . Now its pay back time , as the Dolphins get revenge in merciless fashion.

Projected score: Miami 28 Oakland 10
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2008, 04:54:04 PM »

Ted Sevransky

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans -2.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars looked great last week, beating up on Detroit 38-14. Prior to the game, the money poured in on the Lions – the betting marketplace was convinced that Jack Del Rio’s squad was beset with internal turmoil. Rather than falling apart in Detroit, however, the Jags pulled together, earning their first win of the year by more than a touchdown.

This week, the betting marketplace seems to think that all of the Jaguars problems are solved. The money has poured in on Jacksonville, as bettors are looking for the Jags to end the Titans perfect season. Clearly, these bettors have paid no attention to recent history. Let’s start with this key fact - Jacksonville has no homefield edge whatsoever. The Jags are 0-fer the season against the spread at home, losing as a favorite in straight up fashion in three of their four home games.

Then, we must consider this fact—Everybody looks great when they play the Lions. There’s a reason that Detroit is 0-9, looking at the NFL’s first winless season since 1976 square in the face. But we’ve seen a very dramatic pattern for teams AFTER they face the NFL’s weakest team. These teams have been overvalued in the betting marketplace after looking so good against Detroit, unable to step up in class against a ‘real’ opponent. The numbers don’t lie. The first eight teams to beat Detroit went 0-8 against the spread in their next ballgame. That, folks, is an under-the-radar angle that is surely worth riding once again here.

Tennessee isn’t a ‘sexy’ undefeated team like the Patriots (16-0 in the regular season) were last year or the Colts in ’05 (13-0 start) and ’06 (9-0 start). There’s no Peyton Manning or Tom Brady on Tennessee. The Titans don’t score 40 points against anybody; they don’t have a household name on the roster; and they don’t even have any fantasy studs. The Titans aren’t sexy, but they are efficient – all they do is win, much like they did earlier in the Jeff Fisher era when the Titans were routinely earning a significant profit for their supporters on an annual basis. In a game where a SU win should equal a pointspread cover, I’m quite comfortable backing the team that is finding ways to win, as opposed to the squad that has lost four different games by less than a touchdown in the last eight weeks. Take Tennessee.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2008, 04:55:10 PM »

Bryan Leonard

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Tennessee Titans -2.5

The Titans are the only undefeated team in the league and they continue to be overlooked. The same thing happened when they faced the Rams in the Super Bowl year, they won but they did so without any fanfare. That’s exactly as coach Fisher wants it, stay under the radar and just win, win, win. Now the betting public is lining up in droves to back a Jacksonville team that has underperformed all season. And the reason, a blowout win over the winless Lions. Teams who are off a game with the Lions this year are winless against the spread. Detroit has a way of making everyone look better and the public is now buying into this Jacksonville team despite the fact they are simply not playing well. Coming out of their bye week the Jags lost to both Cleveland and previously winless Cincinnati. So in the last three weeks they are 1-2 against teams with a combined record of 4-23 with half of those four wins coming at the expense of Jacksonville. The Jags are just 1-3 straight up and 0-4 ATS playing at home this year. Tennessee on the other hand is perfect on the road winning by an average of 13 points per game. Sure the Titans win ugly, but they win which is more than what we can say for the Jags.PLAY TENNESSEE

Wild Bill

Miami -10 1/2 (5 units)
Ravens +6 1/2 (5 units)
Jacksonville +2 1/2 (5 units)
Packers -4 (5 units)
Eagles -9 (5 units)
Minnesota-Tampa BayOver 39 1/2 (5 units)
Rams +3 1/2 (5 units)
Redskins +1 1/2 (5 units)
Buffalo -4 1/2 (5 units)
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #13 on: November 15, 2008, 05:29:57 PM »

Max Prophet

St. Louis Rams vs San Francisco 49ers

Finally a game the 49ers can win! After a valiant and almost successful game at Arizona Monday night the 49ers have found a good quarterback in Shaun Hill-back up to O’Sullivan. A new coach Mike Singletary and a renewed hope for the fans in San Francisco. St.Louis has lost to teams like Kansas city and Seattle and their bombing at New York last week 47-3 was right off the radar. The Rams are ranked 31 in offense and 30 in defense. 49ers are ranked 21 in offense and 22 in defense. Take the side on the 49ers.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2008, 05:30:50 PM »

Chris Jordan

I’ve got my keys and am ready to drive to the winners circle in a revamped Cadillac. So are the Buccaneers, by the way, as Cadillac Williams should be back on the field and ready to run wild in the nick of time. And why not, since the most talked about running back in Tampa Bay this weekend will be Adrian Peterson – and not Williams.

I expect Cadillac to mark his territory by leaving tread marks on the Vikings’ defense, in what is a must-win situation for the Buccaneers as well. After all, Tampa and the Falcons are a game and a half behind first-place Carolina, and we all know how explosive the Saints offense can become, making this a four-horse race in the NFC South with four thoroughbreds.

With Tampa coming off a bye week, coach Jon Gruden and his coaches spent most of the time self-scouting, looking to heal the weaker tendencies with his team, which in turn should force the opposition to play the Buccaneers’ pace and style rather than the other way around.

Looking inside the betting numbers, the Buccaneers are on ATS runs of 4-1 versus teams with a winning record, 5-2 after a bye week, 9-4 at home and 11-2 in their Week 11 games.

On the other hand, the Vikes are mired in ATS skids of 2-6 versus the NFC, 1-4 on the road, 0-6 after a straight-up win and 3-9 overall.

Tampa has covered four of the last five meetings, and is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times it has hosted the Vikings. Lay the chalk in this one.

2♦ BUCCANEERS

This is a must-win for the Steelers – end of story.

The Steelers are 12-0 at home during the regular season against the Chargers and Big Ben Roethlisberger is 24-8 at home. However, the Steelers have dropped consecutive games at Heinz Field, losing to the Giants and Colts. Again – must win to keep the Steelers amongst the playoff talk, and to keep Mike Tomlin off the hot seat.

Since the Steelers have won five of the last six games and lead the all-time series 19-6, confidence will be running high for Pittsburgh, which still has a stingy defense. And it’ll be that stop unit that will make things difficult for the West Coast, warm-weather Chargers in what should be frigid conditions in Steeltown.

That’s a big deal for this game, because with the offensive units, I believe it comes down to the running backs. And with Willie Parker expected to return to the lineup, and LaDainian Tomlinson traditionally a cold weather recluse, the Steelers clearly have the edge on the ground.

Look, Pittsburgh has suddenly lost two of three, but it’s lost to legitimate playoff contenders – including the defending World Champions. The Chargers have lost five games, and honestly only one of those teams at this point in the season is a legitimate playoff contender, that being Carolina on opening day.

This is San Diego’s third trip to the East since October 26 and fourth since October 5. And this will be the hardest and most physical on the team. Love the Steelers, who have covered five of their last seven following an ATS loss, so lay the chalk.

2♦ STEELERS
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #15 on: November 15, 2008, 05:32:28 PM »

Brian Gabrielle

Take Carl Edwards (+250), 1/6th unit. Wow, these are some mighty low odds. I guess Vegas really thinks Edwards is going to win at Homestead. So do I. King Carl dominated the past two times out at the 1.5-mile cookie-cutter tracks of Atlanta and Texas, and while Homestead/Miami doesn’t feature exactly the same configuration, it does have similar transitions from its slightly-less-steep turns to its flat straightaways. In other words: loose racecars win. Edwards drives a loose car as well as anyone, and Roush tends to dominate at this track. Given the fact that he’s pretty much definitely not going to win the Chase, Edwards can drive free and easy and win this event.

Take Greg Biffle (+600), 1/6th unit.I’ll also take The Biff, who won here in ‘05 and ‘06 in the old car. Biffle posted top-10 finishes at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte over the past month, and that should carry over very nicely to this race.

Take Kyle Busch (+800), 1/6th unit. Finally, I get the sneaking suspicion maybe we haven’t heard the last from the younger Busch, who’s quietly been very consistent since starting off the Chase so disastrously. He has to wonder what might have been, but seems to have come out of his shell-shocked condition, having finished fourth, 29th, fifth, sixth and eighth the past five weeks. Did someone mention needing to be able to drive a loose racecar? Busch is the king of heavy-steering tracks, and loves to be right on the edge. He’s got a chance Sunday.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #16 on: November 15, 2008, 06:51:22 PM »

SportsInsights

Baltimore Ravens +7 over New York Giants

The Baltimore Ravens are an excellent football squad that will give the New York Giants all they can handle. The Public is overwhelmingly on New York, causing the line to move from Baltimore +6 to +7. Three out of four bets are landing on the mighty Giants. The Giants have been playing unbelievable football and we believe that they are riding high. Too high!

We’ll “bet against the Public” and sell the Giants at this over-valued level. Moving from the “key number of 6” all the way to the “key 7” gives us some additional quantifiable value. We’ll take the 6-3 Ravens, back the bloated line—and look for a close game.

Baltimore Ravens +7

Detroit Lions +14 over Carolina Panthers

Long-time readers of the Sports Marketwatch must have seen this play coming! We couldn’t resist taking a +14 point underdog. Detroit is horrible. We’re taking Detroit and hoping they “suck a little less” this Sunday. Time to “man up” and find out who really believes in “betting against the Public!”

Detroit is the league’s only winless team at 0-9. You can’t get any lower than that, so there seems to be some value in buying the league’s doormat at a low. At the same time, we get to sell the first place Carolina Panthers at a high—winners of their last three games. Carolina has averaged about 20 points a game, so beating the 14 point spread is a mighty tall order. The line looks like it might increase to +14.5, so shop for the best line.

Detroit Lions +14

Seattle Seahawks +3 over Arizona Cardinals

This game will be the most lopsided-bet game of the weekend. The Public is betting this game like they have an advance copy of Monday’s sports page. The sportsbooks are begging the Public to take Arizona -3. A huge 90% of the bets are taking the first place Cardinals. And, why not? Arizona is a first place team at 6-3, while Seattle is a weak 2-7.

We’re cashing in on the current media frenzy surrounding Arizona and Kurt Warner. Seattle is a squad that’s improving every week. Arizona is a team that is showing weakness. In addition, Seattle QB Hasselbeck is back in the starting line-up. This will help improve Seattle’s stagnant offense. We also like this play because of the “home dog” factor—particularly in a divisional match-up.

Seattle Seahawks +3
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #17 on: Today at 01:48:49 AM »

Marc Lawrence

Chicago at Green Bay

The Packers took it on the chin twice against the Bears last season, a rare occurrence for a 14-win team against a losing team. Despite those two losses, head coach Mike McCarthy is 11-4 SU and ATS in division games in his NFL career, including 5-0 ATS versus a .450 or greater opponent and 4-0 ATS when off a loss. With the Bears heading on to the highway for the first time in a month, look for the Pack to get back on the winning track here today.

Play on: Green Bay
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #18 on: Today at 01:49:24 AM »

Vegas Experts

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

Double-digit underdogs are an incredible 15-1 ATS this year in the NFL following a pair of easy Week 10 covers by Kansas City and San Francisco. Currently getting two touchdowns from the oddsmakers, the winless Detroit Lions more than qualify this week. They have actually been competitive on the road this season, covering in three of their five losses. They are also 6-0 ATS L6 in the double-digit dog role themselves. Grab the points.

Play on: Detroit
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #19 on: Today at 01:50:03 AM »

Bob Harvey

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons Over 51

Matt Ryan has helped turn the Falcons into a playoff contender and he’s been especially efffective at home, completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 902 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. Michael Turner should also have a field day against a Denver run defense ranked 27th in the league. In four home games, Turner is averaging 118.5 rushing yards per game and has six touchdowns. Offensively, Atlanta has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. The Ffalcons are averaging (23.4 PPG, 361 YPG) and have been especially potent at the Georgia Dome scoring to the tune of 32 PPG. That coupled with the Broncos allowing 29 points per game on the road makes this a very attractive OVER play.After being held to 15.2 PPG in its last five games, Denver’s offense exploded in its 34-30 road victory against Cleveland last Thursday. Jay Cutler has been pretty much a one man show for the Broncos. Cutler has passed for 2,616 yards and 18 touchdowns this season and has completed 211 of his 342 pass attempts – all stats among the AFC leaders. Without a running game, the Broncos will likely need another strong performance from Cutler to stay close Atlanta. The offense is dangerous, but what makes Denver an ‘over’ play is its inconsistent defense (27.9 PPG).The OVER is 7-1 in Atlanta’s last eight games and the Falcons are 3-1 to the high side at home this season.

Tony Karpinski

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play:Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4

TAMPA is coming off a bye week the Bucs should be ready to face off with a former Division rival. Special teams and turnovers continue to be huge problems for Minnesota and the Vikings will not be able to rush as successfully against a Solid Tampa defense. Minnesota has not been a strong road performer and The Vikings are just 3-6 ATS on the year. BUCS dominate at home and get this game by double digits!

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play:Jacksonville Jaguars +1

The coach rips the team and player efforts in the locker room, and voila! Renewed focus on the field and a performance finally worth of a so-called playoff contender. Of course it came against an 0-9 Detroit club, but too often this season (and in seasons past), the Jaguars have shown the tendency to play up or down to the level of their competition.Coach Jack Del Rio tried every motivational ploy in the book, but it took taking on defensive captain Mike Peterson to shake the malaise in the Jags’ locker room. Now they host the only undefeated team in the NFL, a Titans squad that has made the most of a stout defense and sensational running game. The Titans began this season with a win over the Jags, sacking Garrard 7 times while overwhelming a line that had just lost four rotation players, including two starters. It’s been over two months since that game and the Jaguars will be thirsting for revenge. JACKSONVILLE GIVES TENNESSEE their first loss on Sunday!
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #21 on: Today at 01:52:22 AM »

John Ryan

Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play:Denver Broncos +6.5

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Denver – Denver has a 71% probability of losing this game by 6 or fewer points. Denver has a 90% probability of gaining 6 or more yards per play. Note that Denver is a solid 62-32 ATS when in this role over the past 10 seasons. They also have an 88% probability of scoring 22 or more points. Atlanta is just 3-10 ATS when allowing 22 to 28 points over the past 3 seasons. Atlanta is also just 38-63 ATS when they allow 6 or more yards per play over the past 10 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 46-18 ATS for 72% since 2002. Play on road teams after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is facing an opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Atlanta is in a series of poor roles noting they are just 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992; 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons; 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1992. Denver had a huge offensive game last week against Cleveland (MNF 15* winner) gaining 564 yards. Note that Denver is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Take the Denver Broncos.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #22 on: Today at 01:53:06 AM »

Jimmy The Moose

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are 6-3 SU and ATS on the season. Arizona’s offense has been unstoppable averaging 29.2 PPG and that’s bad news for a Seattle D that is allowing 25.7 PPG. In their last 13 games coming off an ATS loss the Cardinals are 9-4 at the window. Seaatle has struggled to a 2-7 SU record this season. The Seawhawks do get their starting QB, Hasselbeck back for this one but he can’t fix a poor D. Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle has owned this division but this year it looks like the Cardinals will win it and to make the point they’ll easily beat the Seahawks. Play on the Arizona Cardinals -.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #23 on: Today at 01:55:10 AM »

Brian Graves

Eagles vs. Bengals
Pick: Eagles -9

I normally hate laying more than a TD on the road, but when I can get a team with Philly’s pass rush against a backup QB I am more than happy to do that. If your concerned go back and watch the tape of the Philly/Seattle game a few weeks back. McNabb will shred this defense and Westbrook will have 2 big plays, not to mention the defense pitches a near shutout as Philly wins 31-6!
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #24 on: Today at 01:56:06 AM »

Jimmy Thompson

Houston vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Colts -8

We are having a hard time figuring out why this line is coming down. The Colts are proving that as they get healthy they also get dangerous. With Addai back in the backfield and Sanders back in the secondary this is a different team. Wins over Pittsburgh and New England prove that and we understand the possible letdown scenario here. It doesn’t wash though because this team needs every win and at home they will score at will against a Texan team still smarting over that collapse earlier this year! Colts win 38-17!
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #25 on: Today at 01:56:49 AM »

Scott Ferrall

CINCY +9 from Philly—The Eagles bubble burst against the Giants last Sunday night. Too much wood to not grab here

SEATTLE +3 from Arizona—I think everyone is getting a bit excited for nothing with the Cardinals. Hasselback is back and they’ll knock off Zona

New Orleans 5.5 to Kansas City-Saints pull one off on the road at Arrowhead with Brees having a big day

INDY 8 to Houston-I like the way the Colts are playing lately. They just beat the Pats and Steelers back to back

Oakland +10.5 from Miami—The Dolphins aren’t bad, but they can’t handle that kind of number. They couldn’t against Seattle-what makes the Raiders any different
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #26 on: Today at 01:58:44 AM »

Nelly

Philadelphia – over Cincinnati

The Eagles have a lot of vulnerable areas but they seem to catch a lot of breaks. Losing last Sunday night was a critical blow in the standings but Philadelphia had won three in row prior to that loss. Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 road games and Philadelphia has only lost to quality teams this season, generally taking care of business against teams they should beat. Cincinnati enters this game off the first win of the year and a bye week but the Bengals are not likely to carry momentum into this game. Look for the Eagles to bounce back with a complete performance.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #27 on: Today at 01:59:29 AM »

JIM FEIST

ST. LOUIS RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
TAKE UNDER

The 2008 Rams (2-7 SU/2-6-1 ATS) are now 2-3 SU/2-2-1 ATS under coach Jim Haslett. Of course, it’s been all downhill, losing 34-13 at home to Arizona, showing nothing, then looking worse Sunday in another embarrassing loss, 47-3 at the Jets. They trailed 40-0 at the half! Hopes were high that the team had turned a corner, but they were dominated by the Cardinals, who had an edge in yards 510-231. Sunday it was 373-200, as they played without RB Steven Jackson again. The numbers are ugly: 30th in total defense, 31st in offense. The defense (so bad in the first four games) has allowed 23, 34 and 47 points the last three games, both losses. RB Steven Jackson (thigh) remains day to day, CB Tye Hill has an ailing knee. The Jets’ defensive line did a number on the Rams’ front. The pass-blocking was bad, and the run-blocking was even worse, with the Rams rarely getting any kind of push. A year ago the Rams started 0-8 with all kinds of injuries, but then went 2-0 SU/ATS after the bye week. The 2007 Rams went 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS after that 2-game win streak following the 2007 bye and a similar story is playing out in 2008. The Rams are just 2-9-1 ATS their last 12 games. St. Louis is also 3-10 SU 4-8-1 its last 13 away. The only plus for San Francisco (2-7 SU/3-6 ATS) is that the crosstown Raiders are the laughingstock of the AFC. The 49ers are already on their second skipper, with interim coach Mike Singletary, who wanted to get a point across during his first halftime speech two weeks ago. His team was down 20-3 and he wanted to illustrate how badly they were playing. So, a 49ers spokesman confirmed, Singletary dropped his pants (the coach was wearing boxers.) Then they went out and finished up a 34-13 home loss to the lousy Seahawks. The 49ers rank 20th in defense and 23rd in offense, despite adding free wheeling OC Mike Martz. Mobile QB Shaun Hill replaced J.T. O’Sullivan last week. Hill played well – to a point: 3 turnovers (2 picks). The end was typical of a disorganized team, two runs inside the Cardinal 4 to end the game: Stuffed! Another loss. At least they showed some fire, unlike their opponent here. We don’t expect either team to score a lot since the Niners will likely control the ball on the ground with Frank Gore and the Rams are once again without star RB Jackson. If you like scoring, this isn’t the game to watch on Sunday. Take the UNDER!!
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #28 on: Today at 02:00:00 AM »

Dave Cokin

Chargers @ Steelers
Play: Steelers -5

I’m anti-Chargers here. Time to stop thinking about last year’s Chargers. That’s now ancient history. This year’s entry can’t run the ball and can’t stop the pass. They can’t win on the road, either. Teams from the west making the cross country journey have been astonishingly inept and the Chargers are a warm weather team now about to play what amounts to a night game in cold weather with the added possibility of wind and precipitation. The Steelers should end their two-game home losing streak with a solid win here and I’ll spot the number.
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #29 on: Today at 02:02:10 AM »

Tony Mathews

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Selection: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4

This is a really good place for Tampa Bay because in the NFC South they are behind the Panthers by only one game. This means that the Buccaneers have to maintain momentum in this game as well as the next game which will be vs. Detroit. After that, the Buccaneers will have two straight games against Carolina and New Orleans. Tampa Bay was off last week which gives them the extra rest needed after their come from behind victory against Kansas City the week before. At home the Buccaneers are 4-0 and have won by an average of 14.4 points per game.

Minnesota is celebrating a huge home victory vs. Green Bay, but this victory was a surprise that technically shouldn’t have happened. Vikings QB Gus Frerotte was 15-28 passing and three picks against a team that is ranked 3rd in passing defense in the NFL. The Bucs are ranked 5th, so we expect Frerotte to perform pretty much the same this time around. On the Road Minnesota is 1-3, and the lone victory saw the Vikings outgained by the Saints with a total of 105 yards. Minnesota was fortunate with the benefit of being on the right side of turnovers in that game.

The Buccaneers have a very simple game plan; stop RB Adrian Peterson. Against Green Bay, Patterson gained 192 yards and failing to stop him was the Packers downfall. Green Bay in general is incredibly weak in stopping the run, allowing an average of 154.6 yards per game on 5 yards per carry with ranks of 28th and 30th in the NFL. By comparison, the Buccaneers have allowed only 99.3 yards per game and their competitors an average of 3.8 yards per carry. Tampa Bay ranks 11th in yards per game allowed and 12th in allowed yards per carry.

The Buccaneers offense is pretty good. In total offense Tampa bay is at a tied rank of 8th in the league and at 16th for points, putting up an average of 22.2 per game. However, Tampa Bay does have some issues with running backs Earnest Graham, Carnell Williams, and Warrick Dunn not being at 100% health. This is a problem considering they will face the Minnesota 3rd ranked rushing defense. Needless to say the Bucs running game isn’t going to make the game. Tampa Bay does have an excellent passing game to pull them through against the Vikings 19th ranked pass defense.

Also important to remember about Tampa Bay is that the Quarterbacks have been only sacked ten times in the entire season. This illustrates great protection and leaves plenty of room for the running game. While the Packers ran the ball only 18 times vs. the Vikings, they managed to gain 4.1 yards per carry. Before them, the Texans averaged 3.9 yards per carry and Detroit at 4.2, so as long as the Bucs are persistent. there shouldn‘t be a problem; this is exactly what coach Jon Gruden has planned. The Buccaneers are 16-4 against the spread (dating back to last season).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4!

Pure Lock

ARIZONA @ SEATTLE
PLAY ON: SEATTLE (+)

R&R Totals

San Diego @ Pittsburgh
Play On: OVER

Mikey Sports

San Diego @ Pittsburgh
Play On: San Diego (+)
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Re: Sunday Service Plays
« Reply #31 on: Today at 02:08:36 AM »

SPORTS ADVISORS

Denver (5-4, 3-6 ATS) at Atlanta (6-3 SU and ATS)

The beyond-surprising Falcons pursue their fifth win in six games when they host the Broncos at the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta dropped New Orleans 34-20 last week as a one-point home chalk for its second straight win and cover, giving the SU winner a 17-1 ATS mark in the Falcons’ last 18 games, including 9-0 ATS this season. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (16 of 23, 248 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was solid again, and RB Michael Turner (27 carries, 96 yards, 1 TD) had another good day.

Atlanta, which led 27-7 early in the fourth quarter, coasted despite getting outgained 521-361, but it had a 3-0 turnover advantage, including a 95-yard INT return for a score late in the game.

Denver rallied to beat Cleveland 34-30 as a three-point road underdog last Thursday, halting a three-game SU skid and a six-game ATS plunge. QB Jay Cutler (24 of 42, 447 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT), working with a decimated running back corps, threw all three of his TD passes during a 21-point fourth quarter as the Broncos rallied from a 23-13 deficit. The rally began with a 93-yard TD pass from Cutler to Eddie Royal.

These teams have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS. In 2004, Atlanta earned a 41-28 road win getting seven points.

The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this year and carry additional positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall and 12-4 against the AFC. The Broncos, despite last week’s effort, are still mired in pointspread funks of 8-24-1 overall, 2-8-1 after a spread-cover, 3-12 against winning teams, 5-17-1 after a SU win and 4-12 on the road.

The over for Atlanta is on runs of 11-5 overall and 7-1 at home (3-1 this year), and the over for Denver is on streaks of 21-7-2 overall, 5-1 in November, 8-2-1 on the highway and 7-3-2 against winning teams. Also, the last four clashes between these two – including Super Bowl XXXIII – have cleared the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER

Oakland (2-7, 3-6 ATS) at Miami (5-4 SU and ATS)

The Dolphins, aiming to keep pace in the AFC East logjam, step out of division play for a home game against the flailing Raiders.

Miami held off Seattle 21-19 for its third straight win, though the Dolphins failed to cash as a heavy nine-point home favorite, halting a two-game ATS uptick. QB Chad Pennington (22 of 36, 209 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was serviceable enough, and Ricky Williams (12 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) had a big day, scoring on a 51-yard jaunt.

Oakland lost to Carolina 17-6 as a 10-point home pup for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback, giving the SU winner an 8-1 ATS mark this season in Raiders games (6-0 ATS in the last six). Oakland has managed a meager 35 points over its last five games, including just two touchdowns, none in the last two games.

Miami is on a 3-1