Saturday 11-15 Service Plays
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Doc’s Sports

BYU vs. Air Force
Play: BYU -5.5

The Cougars still have a fighting chance to capture the MWC and cannot afford a slip-up in this game against the Falcons. Bronco Mendenhall has never lost to the Falcons (3-0) and easily won the game in 2007, 31-6. In fact, his average margin of victory over Air Force is 22 points. BYU will stop the run and make Air Force beat them over the top and that is something that they are just not capable of doing. We will lay the field goal and easily collect with the visitor behind Max Hall and company. Doc’s Sports Revenge Game of the Year goes Saturday, sign-up for this selection along with a full card.

Robert Ferringo

Take Duke (+11) over Clemson

It has to be really hard for the Tigers to get up for this one. Clemson has been one of the biggest disappointments in all of college football and after a late collapse at Florida State that essentially buried their hopes at a late ACC run, this team is ready to mail it in. Clemson is just 1-9 ATS in its last 10 while Duke is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games. Underdogs are always a sharp play in the ACC and I think the Blue Devils will have more fight in them. Over 60 percent of the action in this game is on the Tigers, yet the line has already fallen from an open of 12.5. That looks like a red flag to me that this dog is live.

Strike Point Sports

Take USC/Stanford Under 48

The Trojans have been just lights out on defense and have dominated the rest of the Pac 10. Get this: in the last 20 quarters of conference play USC has allowed just 13 points, and now Southern Cal gets a Stanford team that they have been waiting for since that unheard of upset last season in Los Angeles. The ‘Under’ is 21-5-1 in USC’s last 27 league games and in this one I wouldn’t be surprised if the Trojans kept the Cardinal under ten points. USC gets revenge and cruises, 35-7.

Matt Fargo

Duke vs. Clemson
Play: Duke +10.5

It is homecoming in Clemson but should that really make the Tigers such a large favorite in this spot? I certainly do not think so. After the loss against Florida St. last weekend, they have dropped four of their last five games and are likely one more loss away from going from a preseason National Championship contender to an early season exit with no bowl invite. There have been some downright huge disappointments this season and Clemson is right at the top of that list.

Duke comes into this game with an identical 4-5 record and while that is a disappointment for the Tigers, it is a huge accomplishment for the Blue Devils. They were picked by many to finish dead last in the ACC Coastal Division and that still may be the case, they are two wins away from bowl eligibility. Winning two of the final three games may not happen but no mater what this season was a success. The four wins have matched the win total from the previous four seasons combined.

Duke has been fantastic against the run of late as it has allowed 117.3 ypg on 3.2 ypc over its last three games. The Tigers have not been able to run the much at all this season and that has been the biggest downfall of this offense. After gaining nothing on the ground against Alabama, the running game flourished for four weeks but has since fallen off again. Clemson is averaging just 59.5 ypg over its last five games while James Davis has totaled only 151 yards rushing on 47 carries (3.2 ypc) over that stretch.

Davis, who last January reversed his decision to bolt early for the NFL, is trying to stay positive but admits it’s difficult because “it seems like everything bad happened.â€? A team that has gone through this is not a team you want to back because it looks at though the white flag is waving and the towel has been tossed in. Clemson does have the same record as Duke but two of its wins came against The Citadel and South Carolina St., both of whom are FCS teams those wins do not count toward bowl eligibility.

Clemson has not covered a home game in its last six attempts and it is just 2-9 in its last 11 games following a loss against the number. The Blue Devils have covered five of their last seven games against teams with a losing record and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games including a 2-1 ATS mark this season. Emotion plays a big part in this game and right now, Duke has a big edge in that department and don’t be surprised to see the Blue Devils officially close the door on the Clemson season. 3* Duke Blue Devils

Wunderdog

Minnesota at Wisconsin
Pick: Minnesota +13.5

How the perception of these teams has changed. Minnesota was rolling along at 7-1, but then took a couple tumbles. Wisconsin had lost five of six, before finding the win column at feeble Indiana. But let’s not overreact to recent history. Ask yourself what this line would have been a few weeks ago? The answer would have likely been 7 or less. So the teams haven’t changed, but the perception of them surely has, and as a result this one is chock full of line value. The Badgers made a QB change, but it hasn’t improved their ability to throw the ball as they remain a ru-only team. The fact is, the passing numbers have gotten worse! Allan Evridge was completing to a 7.2 yards per pass rate while Sherer is sitting at just 6.3, with an even lower completion rate. Minnesota is simply not two TD’s worse than the Badgers right now, and this is a huge overlay. Minnesota has lost to one team by more than this amount all season, and it happened to be in their last game. I’m backing the dog.

Alex Smart

BYU -5.5

The 16th ranked BYU Cougars (9-1) enter into this Mountain West Conference game against Air Force (8-2), in a ATS swoon, as is evident by failing to cover 6 straight games, thanks in part, because of the hefty spreads they have been asked to cover, and also some lackluster efforts. . The Cougars have not looked as dominant as many thought ,they would be , since taking a 32-7 beating at the hands of a pretty good looking TCU Horned Frogs team . There is, however, good news on the horizon for Cougar betting backers as they face a Fly boys program they have owned in the recent past as is evident by winning four straight in the series by no less than 17 points.

I am betting a BYU offense that has put at least 41 points in the board in their last 3 games, behind the arm of QB Max Hall ( 71 % passer accuracy, 32 TDs)to let loose with another barrage of points this week. I also expect the mormons inconsistent defense, to finally stand tall and give coach Mendenhall a stable effort against a Falcons offense that is easy to read , because of a one way ground attack.

Final notes & Key Trends: The SU winner in this series has covered 20 of 21 meetings.

Projected score: BYU 31 Air Force 20

Nelly

Mississippi State + over Alabama

After squeaking out an OT win last week in a highly anticipated game, Alabama now must face a tricky flat spot at home. Alabama has clinched the West division and looking ahead to the Auburn game or the SEC championship is a strong possibility. Mississippi State has had two weeks to prepare for this game and the Bulldogs have won outright the last two years in this series. Mississippi State also owns great defensive numbers and the Tide are overvalued with the high ranking in the polls. Alabama has had horrible recent results in the home favorite role amazingly going 3-18 ATS the last 21 games laying points at home while Mississippi State is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings of this series. This game will mean a lot more to the underdog Bulldogs and MSU owns a defense that is allowing just 295 yards per game with second ranked pass defense in the nation.

David Malinsky

New Mexico @ Colorado St.
PICK: 4* Colorado St. +2.5

Back in an early-season edition of �Verities and Balderdash� we focused on the various elements that the 12-game schedule would bring into play, now that all teams are into the rhythm of that being the way of life. This game provides us with a classic example of how we can use one of those edges for our purposes, with a road favorite that may bring little or nothing to the table.

New Mexico will become the first team to call it a season, with the Lobos packing up all of their equipment when this one is over. It is a problem from two directions – 1. A team that has appeared in a bowl game for seven straight seasons certainly did not plan on the end coming in mid-November; and 2. In playing 12 games in as many weeks, the Lobos are the only team at this level that did not have a bye week, and that means both physical and psychological issues for this setting.

The college football season is a long grind, and while there are often humorous references about the academic standards involved at this level, the bottom line is that most of these players do go to class. Much of the anticipated fatigue is negated by the fact that there are continually targets to shoot for – championships, winning seasons, bowl bids, and the last home game for the senior class. But what happens when those targets go away? We see things like the listless New Mexico loss at U.N.L.V. on Saturday night, when there were still minor bowl hopes in play, and we do not expect to see anything special from Bronco Mendenhall’s team here. Not that they are capable of much anyway, which is one of the prime reasons why they will finish with their first losing record since 2000. The passing game could not deal with the loss of starting QB Donovan Porterie early in the season (they have not reached 200 air yards in a game), and that made it easy for opposing defenses to stack the line of scrimmage, rendering the offensive helpless on many occasions.

Contrast the flat Lobos with the spark that Colorado State will play with. Assuming that Utah goes 12-0 and earns the likely BCS spot that will come along with that, it means that a Mountain West bowl tie-in has been opened up, and Steve Fairchild’s Rams can qualify for that by winning here, and again at Wyoming next week. It is also the last home game for a senior class that includes starting QB Billy Farris, leading rusher Gartrell Johnson (only needs 71 yards to reach 1,000 for the season), and TE Kory Sperry, a potential NFL draft choice. They have beaten Houston and U.N.L.V. on this field, while also taking T.C.U. and Brigham Young to the final possession, creating a perfect 4-0 ATS run in which they have beaten the spread by 42.5 points. The hungrier and fresher team should not have any difficulty winning this one SU.

Larry Ness

Texas -13.5 vs Kansas

The Longhorns did not come out flat last week against Baylor, after losing that heart-breaking 39-33 game at Lubbock the week before. Texas outgained Baylor 494-272 in yards and had 30 FDs to Baylor’s nine in a 45-21 win. However, the loss at Texas Tech cost the Longhorns their No. 1 ranking and maybe a chance to play in the Big 12 Championship game and possibly, the BCS title game. The Longhorns now need help for that to happen, as they will need Oklahoma to beat Texas Tech on 11/22 and then hope that they can finish higher than either the Red Raiders and the Sooners in the BCS standings (the tie-breaker if all three schools finish 7-1). Texas can’t do much about how other games play out, so expect them to concentrate fully here at Lawrence, knowing the team doesn’t have to play again until their game at College Station on Thanksgiving. The Jayhawks were once 5-1 (lone loss came at USF, 37-34) but they’ve dropped three of their last four since then, allowing 43.5 PPG and an average of 369.5 YPG through the air. That includes losses to Oklahoma and Texas Tech, teams which combined to throw for 886 yards, with QBs Bradford and Harrell throwing eight TDs and not a single interception in 95 attempts. Colt McCoy (244-of-313 / 78.0 percent / 2,879 yards with 28 TDs and 7 INTs / QB rating of 180.3 is 4th in the nation) should sure ‘love’ that Jayhawks secondary. Lay the points!

Chip Chirimbes

Texas vs. Kansas
Play: Over 67

Former #1 Texas Longhorns has to run the table and hope for a little help along the way to represent the Big XII South, or to make a BCS bowl as an at-large berth. Lead by Colt McCoy (78% completions) there is plenty of offense to go around as neither team can stop the pass. Kansas’ QB Reesing can move the ball through the air as well as McCoy. Kansas’ secondary has been the main culprit in allowing nearly 40 ppg in Big XII games this season. Texas has also fallen short, recently giving up over 30 ppg in a four game run against offenses’ similar to that of the Jayhawks. Combined these two teams have gone over the total in 10 of their 12 Big XII conference games. No reason to believe there is any letdown from these two high powered offenses. With less of a pass rush without Orakpo, Texas’ secondary is even more vulnerable. Plus Kansas hasn’t covered anyone all season. 70+ points seems the likely destination when all is said and done. Play OVER!

SportsInsights

Georgia vs Auburn

Georgia came into the season ranked No. 1, but they were blown out by both Alabama and Florida to end any chance at a national championship. The Bulldogs have a high-powered offense led by a talented trio at the skill positions. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, tailback Knowshon Moreno, and wide receiver A.J. Green are the main reasons Georgia leads the SEC in total offense. The Bulldogs exploded last week for 520 yards against Kentucky. With this team, defense is the weak link. They allow 24.9 points per game, which is 11th in the SEC. They escaped last week with a win after Stafford’s touchdown pass to Green with 1:48 left.

Auburn came into the season with a top-10 ranking and a new spread offense that was supposed to put up a lot of points. The offense never developed, and they quickly dropped out of the rankings after a four-game losing streak. They ended that streak last week with a 37-20 win against Tennessee-Martin, in which they reached their highest point output for the season. The Tigers settled on Kodi Burns at quarterback three games ago, and that move improved the offensive numbers. They have gained 1,114 yards in those three games behind the dual threat Burns. The Tigers strength is defense, and they’re allowing an average of 16.3 points per game.

Georgia opened as 8-point favorites at Pinnacle, and the line remained there until early Wednesday despite the overwhelming majority of bettors behind the Dawgs. Since the the line has moved to Georgia -9.5, with the Bulldogs receiving 75% of spread bets and 87% of parlay bets. The movement has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on Auburn, all with positive results. We’re going to follow the Smart Money and take the home underdog.

Auburn +10

Boston College vs Florida State

Boston College bounced back from back-to-back conference losses with a 17-0 win over Notre Dame last week. The Eagles posted their third shutout of the season last week, and the strength of the team is on that side of the ball. BC is allowing under 17 points per contest. The loss of first round pick Matt Ryan at quarterback has left BC’s offense in bad shape, as they rank 95th nationally in total offense. The Eagles control their own destiny in the ACC. With wins in their final three games against Florida State, Wake Forest and Maryland, the Eagles will secure a trip to the ACC Championship game and a possible BCS Bowl.

No. 20 Florida State has returned to its usual perch in the top ranks of the ACC. They are doing it behind one of the nation’s best running attacks, which averages 205.2 yards per game. No single player is doing all the work, as four players have at least 200 yards rushing on the season, including quarterback Christian Ponder. Their defense has also keyed the return to relevance in the ACC. The Seminoles are allowing 100 fewer yards of offense than they did last season. A key has been the third down defense, as they allow opponents to convert only 18 percent of third down attempts.

The top-25 ranked Seminoles opened as a touchdown favorite at Pinnacle, and the line remained there until Wednesday when it dropped to Florida State -6.5. The change occured with the Seminoles receiving 67% of spread bets and 80% of parlay bets from the public. The moves triggered a Smart Money play at The Pig (56-49, +1.9 units.) We’re going to follow the Smart Money and take BC with the points.

Boston College +6.5

Tulsa vs Houston

No. 23 Tulsa had its BCS bubble burst two weeks ago with a 30-23 loss to Arkansas. The Golden Hurricane had been undefeated and were 18th in the BCS Standings. They hope to rebound and gain the inside track in the Conference USA West Division race. The are currently ahead of Rice and Houston. Tulsa’s offense is averaging 52 points and 593 total yards per game. Senior quarterback David Johnson has thrown for 33 touchdowns against only 10 interceptions. The Golden Hurricane defense is also solid, leading the conference in rushing defense. They went into last week’s bye tied for second in the nation with 31 sacks.

Houston is coming off a lop-sided 42-14 win against Tulane, in which the Cougars gained a season-high 693 yards of offense. Sophomore quarterback Case Keenum has thrown for at least 300 yards and two touchdowns in each game this season. He has 29 touchdown passes against nine interceptions. Keenum has the Cougars passing attack ranked second nationally. Houston’s defense is allowing an average of 385 yards per game. Defensive end Philip Hunt is ranked third in the NCAA with 10 sacks on the season.

Tulsa opened as 5.5-point favorites at Pinnacle, and they are receiving 62% of spread bets and 76% of parlay bets. Despite that level of backing the line has dropped to Tulsa -4. That movement has triggered some Smart Money plays, including one at Bodog (14-6, +6.65 units), and a pair of Steam Moves on Houston. We’ll again follow the Smart Money and take the home underdog, especially with some 4.5-point lines still out there.

Houston +4.5

Matty Baiungo

Georgia vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn +9.5

So much for that preseason # 1 ranking on Georgia. That was obviously way off line. The current reality is that this Georgia team isn’t really that good. About a month back, I used Georgia over Vanderbilt. And in my write-up, I said: “If Georgia doesn’t win this game by 30 points or more, then they too would qualify as a phony team.� Well they didn’t win big rather they held on for a 10 point win (24-14). And since that game, the Bulldogs have gone 2-1 straight-up and just 1-2 against the spread. Over those three games, their defense has allowed 38, 49, and 38 points. And head coach Mark Richt knows his team has a ton of issues other than the leaky defense: “We’ve got some special teams issues that have put these guys in a bind. We’ve had turnover issues that have put these guys in a bind. It is a team game and it’s going to take the entire team to get the point total down. That’s the bottom line. It’s not just the defense.�

In SEC play, Georgia has allowed its opponents to score an average of 28.7 points per game. You can understand the LSU game to a degree, and certainly understand the waxing at the hands of Florida, but there’s no excuse to allow 38 points at Kentucky last week. To show you just how bad that is, consider that Kentucky had scored no more than 21 points in their five conference games with an average of just 14.2 points scored per game. And they put up 38 points on Georgia while gashing them for 226 yards on the ground. Georgia’s offense has played well in spurts, but they haven’t been consistent because of their offensive line troubles. The line was young to begin with, but injuries have continued to mount and they lost another tackle at Kentucky. And the special teams have been atrocious all season long. So in all three phases of the game, Georgia has issues, and cannot be trusted laying points.

Auburn is no great shakes by any means. They, themselves, have plenty of their own issues. But since Kodi Burns took over the offense, they’ve improved on that side of the ball. Burns threw for more than 300 yards at Mississippi, and then last week, ran for 158 yards against Tennessee-Martin. In those two games, Burns has accounted for 620 yards which totaled 73% of Auburn’s offense. He’s a dual threat quarterback who can take advantage of Georgia’s defensive troubles. Defensively, Auburn played the Tennessee-Martin game without their entire defensive line because of injury. But all are expected back here. Both teams have been dreadful against the spread with Auburn just 1-8 and Georgia 3-6. But Auburn has more incentive here. The Tigers win last Saturday snapped a four game losing skid, and with the way Burns is playing, there’s a chance momentum will carry over to their last home game here against Georgia, and then into the Iron Bowl at Alabama in their finale. Still, this is more of an anti-Georgia play than anything else. Play Auburn plus the points.

Ted Sevransky

Wake Forest @ NC State
PICK: NC State +3.5

We backed NC State last week and were rewarded as they pulled off the outright upset over Duke, winning by double digits on the road. I’m ready, willing and able to ride this Wolfpack squad as an underdog one more time this week. Here’s an excerpt of my rationale behind the play on Tom O’Brien’s squad last week: “The Wolfpack have the better of the two quarterbacks, redshirt frosh Russell Wilson, a future NFL prospect and a legitimate savior for a squad that has suffered through some dismal QB play since Philip Rivers moved on to the NFL. In his last three ACC games, Wilson has completed 58% of his pass attempts, throwing five touchdowns without a single interception. NC State lost all three games in heartbreaking fashion, losing in the final minute against Boston College and Maryland, while blowing a fourth quarter lead against Florida State. With an extra week of prep time following their bye, look for NC State to end their string of close losses with a straight up victory here.�

Wilson was rock solid again last week, needing only 13 completions to produce more than 200 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns without an interception. Running backs Jamell Eugene and Andre Brown combined for nearly 150 rushing yards on 26 carries. They made a big play on special teams, returning a kickoff for a touchdown. The defense shut down the Blue Devils on the ground, and stiffened up repeatedly in the red zone. This is a rested (two bye weeks in the last month), improving squad, making significant strides towards respectability in O’Brien’s second year on the job. With a 3-6 SU mark, one of the few teams that is out of contention in the ACC, the betting marketplace hasn’t seemed to notice.

Wake Forest is certainly no juggernaut. They’ve been held to 17 points or less five times in their last seven games, and they’ve lost three of their last six in outright fashion. Yes, Wake has won back-2-back games over Duke and Virginia, but they needed overtime to beat the Blue Devils at home, and were actually outgained by the Cavaliers last week; held scoreless in the second half following an interception return touchdown before halftime. The Demon Deacons rank 115th in the nation in true rushing yards, and 85th in yards per pass attempt, as QB Riley Skinner continues to struggle. In eight years under Jim Grobe, Wake Forest is a 33% ATS proposition as a road favorite, with three of their four wins and covers in that role coming against Duke. Expect them to be in a battle to win the game at all, let alone winning it by any sort of a margin. (#326) 2* Take North Carolina State.

Brian Hansen

Game: Oklahoma St. at Colorado
Prediction: Oklahoma St.

This is a matchup of two different caliber teams and I look for Oklahoma State to roll Colorado in this game. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS their last six games when listed as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS this season with their only loss being last week against Texas Tech. The Cowboys have bounced back well in this situation as they are 8-2 ATS their last 10 games when off a loss to a conference opponent in their last game. Colorado has been awful this season versus Big 12 opponents going 0-6 ATS. The Buffaloes are 5-15 ATS their last 20 after playing a conference game the previous week. Colorado is 1-5 ATS this season when listed as an underdog and the Buffaloes are 5-17 ATS their last 22 games when listed as an underdog. Colorado won last week versus Iowa State but the Buffaloes haven’t fared well off a win versus a conference opponent as they are 1-6 ATS their last seven tries. Look for Oklahoma State to rebound in a big way as they improve to 14-4 ATS their last 18 games as a favorite. Play on Oklahoma State!

James Patrick Sports

South Carolina vs. Florida
Play South Carolina

Gamecocks Head Coach Steve Spurrier returns to the “Swamp� seeking revenge for last seasons (51-31) loss to his Alma Mater. Amazingly we grab the nations #3 ranked defensive unit as a 20 point underdog to go along with Spurrier’s 6-1 ATS record as a double-digit SEC underdog.

Dave Cokin

South Carolina @ Florida
Play: South Carolina +22’

The Florida Gators may indeed be the best team in the land right now, and there’s no question they should at least win this football game. But make no mistake, the visiting Gamecocks are legit on defense and I don’t see the Gators moving the ball at will here. The key is the So Car offense. I believe they get the number covered here if they can simply get to the end zone twice and I think Spurrier can find a way to accomplish that feat. I’ll go with South Carolina plus the points.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Louisiana Tech -13

The lowly Aggies will be a long way from home this Saturday and that likely means more doom and gloom as they are 0-5 on the road this season while Louisiana Tech is 4-0 at home. Tech has beat the Aggies by double digits in each of the past two seasons and comes into this year’s matchup with lots of momentum, having won back-to-back games over Fresno State and San Diego State. Utah State is 4-17 ATS after a loss by 28 or more points since 1992 and only 1-15 ATS off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more since 1992. Take Tech.

John Martin

1 Unit on Nevada -14.5

Nevada’s running game is one that not too many folks know about. But I would put their rushing attack up against any other team in the country. Nevada is scoring 38.2 points/game, which is largely attributed to their running game where the Wolf Pack are averaging 324 rushing yards/game on the season. You would think this team would be one-dimensional with those rushing numbers, but that’s simply not the case. Nevada is also throwing for 200 passing yards/game this season for an average of 524.1 totals yards of offense/game. Nevada catches a struggling San Jose State team at home Saturday. The Spartans have played poorly in each of their last 3 games, losing badly to Boise State, narrowly escaping a terrible Idaho team 30-24 the following week, and then getting crushed at home by Louisiana Tech 21-0 last week. San Jose State cannot throw the ball, which makes the Spartans an easy team to stop. San Jose State has thrown for 118 yards or less in 3 of their last 4 games overall. The Spartans were held to just 30 yards rushing last week on 28 carries. SJSU is down for the count, while Nevada is flourishing right now. Nevada posted 472 rushing yards on Fresno State last week, and SJSU is not about to slow this offense down Saturday. Once Nevada jumps on the Spartans early, they will be able to increase their lead with the best rushing attack in the country coupled with the fact that San Jose State cannot throw the ball, thus they cannot play from behind. Cash in with Nevada as the favorite.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Oregon State -3

Cal is just 1-3 on the road this season and faces a stiff challenge this week against an OSU team that has won 4 straight. OSU has been phenomenal at home this season, averaging 41.2 ppg on offense and only allowing 16.5 ppg on defense. The Beavers have a legit shot to win the Pac-10 and I don’t see them ruining that opportunity at home this week. If anything, they would likely fall next week on the road to Arizona. Oregon State is 20-6 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992, 14-3 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992, and 17-5 ATS after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. Cal has also been poor in games odds makers have figured to be close, at 12-26 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992. Take the Beavers at home.

Matt Foust

Georgia @ Auburn Under 47.5

The 8-2 Georgia Bulldogs will take on fellow SEC member Auburn this Saturday in a surprisingly unimportant affair. Granted, the game still holds big significance to Georgia, but the Auburn half of the equation brings it down a few notches. It is also the Tigers who have us anticipating the score being down a few notches as well, hence our recommended play on the Under.

If Auburn has proven anything this year, it is that they have difficulty finding the end zone. Despite the Bulldogs suspect defense in recent weeks, Auburn will be hard pressed to score more than two touchdowns, if they can even muster that. The Tigers biggest offensive strength (running game) is Georgia’s biggest defensive strength. And, the Tigers simply do not have the talent this season to overcome a superior opponent. The Auburn offense is averaging just 19.5 points per game this year and they have failed to score more than 17 points in four of their last six games.

Georgia’s offense too, will probably finding the sledding a little tough this Saturday. While the Tigers defense is not what it was supposed to be, it is still a decent unit, holding the opposition to just 16.3 points per game. In fact, Auburn’s average game score in SEC play this year is 29.17 (six games) and not a single game has gone over 47.5.

Look for Auburn to keep it on the ground in order to try to stay in the game. This, along with Georgia’s likely emphasis on the ground game as well, will speed this contest up, allowing for fewer scoring opportunities.

Pick: Take the Under 47.5

Nebraska -6.0 (-110)

This Saturday the Nebraska Cornhuskers will take on Big 12 North division rival, the Kansas State Wildcats. The Huskers are favored -6 on the road and we are going to take them to cover that number.

Nebraska, while not having a shot at the Big 12 North title, is probably playing better than any other North team with the exception of the Missouri Tigers. The Huskers have won three of their last four games and have demonstrated that they are clearly the class of the Big 12’s second tier teams of which K-State is a member. They have wins over Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas to prove it. Nebraska’s average margin of victory against these squads is 16.67 points per game.

Kansas State is without question a team in turmoil. Even prior to the announcement that Head Coach Ron Prince would be gone at the end the season, the Wildcats were circling the drain. They have now lost four games in a row and they have yet to win a conference game at home this year. The Cats are also 0-3 against their North brethren and their average loss in Big 12 play has been by 20.4 points per game.

Both of these clubs are prone to the turnover and, quite frankly, that is K-State’s best chance to win. However, it will be difficult for them to overcome their own errors. Nebraska should have a field day, as just about every Wildcat opponent has, rushing the ball on Saturday. The Huskers average 156.7 yards per game on the ground while the Cats yield 210.8 rushing yards per game. Nebraska also has a big advantage on third down. They convert at nearly a 50% clip, about the same percentage that K-State allows.

Take Nebraska -6

Michael Alexander

East Carolina vs. So Mississippi
Play:East Carolina +2.5

East Carolina, riding a three game SU winning streak, travel to take on So. Mississippi looking to rack up their 11th ATS win over the Golden Eagles. The Pirates offense, although not one of the most prolific scoring machines, have posted a decent 23.2 points per game. Although their defense has been rather porous giving up higher than 20 points per game, they have stepped it up in their last three games allowing their opponents to post just 12 points per game and just 233 yards of total offense.

The So. Mississippi Golden Eagles after losing five in a row come into this one on their own streak winning their last two in a row. Unlike East Carolina, the Eagles haven’t have problems scoring posting an average of 31.9 points per game. They have needed every bit of those points as they defense has given up a very high 27.3 points per game. The last two times that these teams have met the defense has given up an average of 24 points.

SUPPORTING ANGLES: E CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992. E CAROLINA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Southern Miss’ top two running backs are banged-up. Each missed last Saturday’s game, leaving QB Austin Davis as the team’s leading rusher. That will spell trouble versus a Carolina defense that is athletic and deep enough to shut him down. I’m taking the points and the Golden Eagles in this one.

Lee Kostroski

Notre Dame @ Navy
PICK: Notre Dame -3.5

Notre Dame lost to Navy at home last year 46-44 in triple overtime, making it the first time in 44 years that Navy beat Notre Dame. Don’t think for one second that the Irish have forgotten about that. At 5-4, Notre Dame may not have the swagger that Irish teams have had in the past, but three of their four losses were on the road to good teams (Michigan State, North Carolina, Boston College) and an overtime loss at home to a good Pittsburgh team. We expect Charlie Weis to have his team ready for revenge against a talented Navy team.

Before last weeks 0-17 loss at the hand of Boston College, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen was starting to look like a premiere College quarterback, he threw four interceptions against Boston College, squandering any chance of a win. We expect him to have a big day to redeem himself against Navy’s 105th ranked pass defense. In their most recent game, Navy gave up 340 yards passing and 3 touchdowns against Temple!

In similar match-ups by both of these teams, they have both had a recent game against Pittsburgh; Navy lost their match-up at home with Pitt by 21 and was out-gained by 250 yards, whereas Notre Dame out-gained Pitt and lost in the fourth overtime 36-33. Notre Dame comes into this game under a lot of scrutiny after their shutout loss to BC and knowing that they lost to Navy for the first time in 44 years last year; now Charlie Weis has taken over play-calling duty for the offense and we expect an offensive explosion from the Irish. The road team in this series is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games and we expect that trend to continue Saturday. The game is technically on a “neutral site” in Baltimore but it is basically a home game for Navy. Go with the Irish.

Jack Clayton

Oklahoma State at Colorado
Pick: Colorado

Oklahoma State has a dynamite offense built for the artificial turf at home. But this is a road game on natural grass, that slows down speed-oriented offenses. Colorado plays its best ball at home, as well. Play Colorado.

Scott Ferrall

MARYLAND +3 from North Carolina—The Terps are unbeaten at home and getting points. They are both 3-2 in conference

TROY +19.5 from LSU-They both average 31 per week and the Tigers are coming off an OT loss to BAMA-how do they get up for this game after that game at home last week ? They don’t—and Troy isn’t bad-they have the same 6-3 mark as LSU

NC ST +4 from Wake Forest—only because the Wolfpack are at home and they both average 20pts per game

Wild Bill

Minnesota +13 1/2 (5 units)
Wake Forest -4 (5 units)
La Tech -12 1/2 (5 units)
Washington +7 1/2 (5 units)
BYU -4 (5 units)
Marshall -7 (5 units)
Tulsa -5 1/2 (5 units)
Stanford +22 1/2 (5 units)
So Florida -7 1/2 (5 units)
Washington St +36 1/2 (5 units)
Troy +19 1/2 (5 units)
Texas A&M +8 (5 units)
Navy-ND Over 50 1/2 (5 units)
NW-Michigan Under 46 (5 units)
USC-Stanford Over 48 (5 units)
Boise-Idaho Over 59 1/2 (5 units)
Rutgers-SO FLA Over 49 (5 units)

Colin Cowherd

Stanford 17-30 to cover against USC
Texas 45-20 over Kansas
Notre Dame 22-17 over Navy
Ohio State 33-17 over Illini (Easy $$ Blowout)
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SPORTS ADVISORS

(24) South Carolina (7-3, 6-3 ATS) at (3) Florida (8-1 SU and ATS)

South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier returns to his old “chomping� grounds in the Swamp, hoping to lead his Gamecocks to an SEC upset win over red-hot Florida, which has battled its way back into national championship contention.

A week after pummeling hated Georgia 49-10, the Gators avoided the dreaded letdown last week at Vanderbilt, jumping out to a 42-0 lead and cruising to a 42-14 victory as a 23½-point road favorite. QB Tim Tebow (171 passing yards, 88 rushing yards, 3 total TDs) accounted for 259 of Florida’s 422 total yards and half of its six touchdowns as the Gators won their fifth in a row (5-0 ATS) and clinched the SEC East and an a berth in the league championship game against No. 1 Alabama.

Not only has Florida ripped off five straight wins since its shocking 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss, but all five have come by 28 points or more. In fact, Urban Meyer’s squad has outscored the opposition 355-76 in its eight wins, all of them coming by at least 23 points.

South Carolina enters this contest on a roll, having won six of its last seven, including the last two in a row over Tennessee (27-6 as a six-point home favorite on Nov. 1) and Arkansas (34-21 as a 12½-point home chalk last week). The Gamecocks barely outgained the Razorbacks 351-309, but they had a 132-54 edge in rushing, and the defense had three interceptions.

The Gators went to South Carolina last year and spanked the Gators 51-31 as a seven-point road favorite, finishing with a 153-yard edge in total offense (537-384) as Tebow accounted for all seven of Florida’s touchdowns (2 passing, 5 rushing). Florida is 16-1 SU all-time in the series, but the Gamecocks have cashed in two of three since Spurrier became their coach, including a 17-16 loss as a 13-point underdog in his only previous return trip to Gainesville.

South Carolina’s current 4-1 ATS run has all come in SEC action, and the ‘Cocks are also on pointspread streaks of 11-4 on the road, 9-2-1 as a road underdog, 5-1 as a double-digit underdog, 5-2-1 on grass, 6-2 in November, 11-5-1 against teams with a winning record and 10-4 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, in addition to its 5-0 ATS run overall (all against SEC foes), Florida is on spread rolls of 9-2 at home, 6-0 in November and Florida 12-5-1 as a home chalk.

Florida has topped the total in four straight games and is on further over runs of 5-1 at home, 5-1 in November, 20-8 on grass and 13-3 after an ATS win. Also, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this series. However, the under is 25-11-1 in South Carolina’s last 37 road games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA

(10) Ohio State (8-2, 3-6 ATS) at Illinois (5-5, 4-5 ATS)

Rapidly maturing redshirt freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor faces his second straight Big Ten road test when he leads Ohio State into Memorial Stadium for a meeting with Illinois.

Pryor shook off a poor performance in the Buckeyes’ 13-6 home loss to Penn State with a sterling effort against Northwestern last week, passing for 197 yards and three touchdowns en rout to a 45-10 rout as an 11-point road favorite. Pryor, who attempted just 14 passes and competed nine, also had 33 rushing yards, while RB Beanie Wells chipped in 140 rushing yards and two TDs as Ohio State finished with a 441-294 edge in total offense.

Illinois’ road woes continued in last week’s surprising 23-17 loss at Western Michigan as a seven-point road favorite. QB Juice Williams threw two more interceptions, running his season total to 14, and the Illini never led after the midway point of the second quarter. Illinois has alternated wins and losses in its last eight games and alternated spread-covers in its last six, though Ron Zook’s team is 4-1 at home in 2008 (2-2 ATS).

Illinois handed Ohio State its first and only regular-season loss last year, going to Columbus and winning 28-21 as a 15½-point road underdog. The Illini dominated the contest, piling up 400 total yards (260 rushing) and allowing 336 (180 rushing), and Williams tossed four TD passes. The visitor is on an 8-2 SU roll in this rivalry, but Illinois is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings (3-1 ATS in the last four as an underdog).

Ohio State has yet to cash in any of its five home games this year, but Jim Tressel’s squad is 3-1 ATS on the road, improving to 14-4 ATS in its last 18 on the highway. Additionally, the Buckeyes are on pointspread streaks of 13-3 as a road favorite (3-0 this year), 25-10 against Big Ten foes and 8-3 in November, but they’ve failed to cash in six straight games on field turf. Meanwhile, the Illini are on positive ATS rolls of 7-2 in conference, 9-1 as an underdog in Big Ten games, 4-1 in November and 4-0 following a non-cover.

The over is 6-1-1 in Illinois’ last nine Big Ten tilts and 5-1 in OSU’s last six in November. However, the under is on a 3-1 roll in this rivalry, and each of the last three clashes at Illinois have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

(17) North Carolina (7-2, 5-3 ATS) at Maryland (6-3, 4-4 ATS)

The Tar Heels, off to their best start in more than a decade, travel to Maryland for an ACC battle with the Terrapins.

North Carolina has won five of its last six (4-2 ATS) and dominated Georgia Tech on Saturday, winning 28-7 as 5½-point home favorites. The Tar Heels are averaging 30.8 points and 327.9 yards per game, but got outgained 423-314 against the Yellow Jackets. UNC averages 132.3 yards rushing and now faces a Maryland defense giving up 152.3 rushing ypg.

Maryland is 5-0 (3-1 ATS) at home this season, outscoring the opposition 153-82. But last week the Terps went to Virginia Tech and fell 23-13 as a three-point ‘dog, getting outgained 400-228 and finishing with minus-12 yards rushing. Maryland has already upset three Top-25 teams this season, outscoring those ranked foes by an average of 12.3 points.

Both teams are 3-2 in ACC play, with North Carolina residing in second place in the Coastal Division, one-half game behind Miami, Fla., while Maryland is a game back of both Wake Forest and Florida State in the Atlantic Division.

North Carolina got a 16-13 home win over the Terps last year, cashing as a two-point favorite and snapping a four-game SU losing skid and a seven-game ATS slide in this rivalry. The last time these two squared off in Maryland was in 2003 when the Terrapins delivered a 59-21 thumping as a 17-point favorite. The straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.

The Heels are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after a spread-cover, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning record. Maryland is on ATS slides of 5-11 in ACC play and 2-6 in November, but the Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four after a straight-up loss.

For North Carolina, the under is 7-3 in its last 10 November games, while the over is 4-1 in their last five roadies and 4-1 in their last five against teams with a winning record. Maryland has topped the total in four of its last five at home, but otherwise the under is on several streaks for the Terps, including 4-1 overall, 6-1 in ACC games, 5-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 following a non-cover. Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four clashes in this series.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND

(4) Texas (9-1, 7-3 ATS) at Kansas (6-4, 5-4 ATS)

Texas will try to beat Kansas for the seventh straight time when it travels to Lawrence for a Big 12 meeting with the slumping Jayhawks.

The Longhorns rebounded from their first loss of the season two weeks ago by downing Baylor 45-21 in Austin, failing to cash as a 27-point home favorite, the team’s third straight non-cover after a 7-0 ATS start. QB Colt McCoy threw five touchdown passes to continue his stellar campaign, as the junior is completing 78 percent of his throws for 2,879 yards, 28 TDs and seven INTs.

Kansas has dropped three of its last four (2-2 ATS), including a 45-35 loss in Nebraska on Saturday, coming up well short as a 1½-point ‘dog. The Jayhawks gave up 495 yards, including 328 through the air. Kansas QB Todd Reesing was just 15-of-30 passing, but had 304 yards, three TDs and one INT. Reesing has thrown for 2,940 yards this season with 23 TDs, but his 10 INTs are tied for the Big 12 lead.

Texas is 6-0 (5-1 ATS) against Kansas dating back to 1996, with all but one victory coming by 14 points or more. These two haven’t met since 2005 when the Longhorns crushed the Jayhawks 66-14 in Austin as a 32-point home favorite. However, the last time they went to Kansas, the ‘Horns barely escaped with a 27-23 win, scoring the game-winning TD with 11 seconds left to fall well short as 23-point favorites.

Texas is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven November games, but otherwise the Longhorns are on ATS streaks of 8-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 25-12-1 after a non-cover and 9-3 against a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, despite its recent struggles, the Jayhawks remain on a host of ATS streaks, including 20-6 overall, 11-3 at home, 14-5 in Big 12 games, 10-4 in November contests and 5-0 coming off a non-cover.

Texas is in the midst of a bevy of over streaks, including 6-1 overall, 16-5-1 on the road, 8-1 in conference action, 5-0 in November and 4-0 following a non-cover. Kansas also is on several over streaks, including 4-0 overall, 10-2 in November, 4-0 in conference play and 5-2 at home against teams with a winning road record.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Cal (6-3, 7-2 ATS) at (23) Oregon State (6-3 SU and ATS)

Oregon State’s quest for its first Pac-10 championship in more than 40 years continues went it returns to Reser Stadium for a home game against Cal.

The Beavers shook out of a first-half funk against UCLA last week, outscoring the Bruins 31-3 over the final 30 minutes on their way to a 34-6 victory – their fourth in a row – covering as a 7½-point road chalk. Oregon State, which cracked the Top 25 for the first time this year with the win, finished with 423 total yards to UCLA’s 234, including a 205-45 advantage in rushing yards, easily improving to 6-1 ATS in its last seven.

Oregon State, which opened the season with a 36-28 Pac-10 road loss to Stanford, has since won five straight league games (4-1 ATS) and is a half-game behind USC in the league standings. However, the Beavers control their own destiny in the conference race based on their stunning 27-21 home win over the then-No. 1 Trojans back on Sept. 5.

Cal went to USC last week and became the latest team to get stonewalled by the top-rated Trojans defense, managing just 165 total yards (27 rushing) in a 17-3 road defeat. On the bright side, the Bears easily cashed as a 22-point road underdog, their third straight ATS win and their eighth spread-cover in the last 10 games dating to last year’s bowl victory over Air Force. It’s been a stark turnaround in the pointspread department for Cal, which failed to cash in its final seven regular-season games in 2007.

This has been a road-dominated series the last five years, with the visitor going 5-0 SU and ATS. Last year, the Beavers’ traveled south and stunned then-No. 2 Cal 31-28 as a 14-point underdog, costing the Bears their first No. 1 ranking in 56 years. Going back to 1999, Oregon State is 7-2 SU against Cal, and the Beavers have covered in 14 of the last 21 series clashes.

Despite its current 8-2 ATS tear and last week’s cover at USC, Cal is still just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games, 2-6 ATS in its last eight in November and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 following a SU defeat. Meanwhile, Oregon State carries ATS trends of 13-3 overall, 38-18-1 in Corvalis (9-3 last 12), 17-8 in November, 4-0 in Pac-10 play, 10-1 on artificial turf and 42-17 after an ATS triumph.

For the Bears, the under is on runs of 9-4-1 on the road, 6-1 in November, 7-2 against winning teams and 7-3 after a defeat. The under is also 5-2 in Oregon State’s last seven home games. Lastly, the under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between these schools at Reser Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE and UNDER

Arizona (6-3 SU and ATS) at Oregon (7-3, 4-6 ATS)

Arizona goes for its third straight win over Oregon when it pays a visit to Autzen Stadium in this Pac-10 battle.

The Wildcats hit the highway last week and claimed a 59-28 victory over lowly Washington State, but came up well short as a 41-point road chalk despite eye-popping advantages of 531-208 in total offense, 28-12 in first downs, 4-2 in turnovers and 37½-22½ minutes in time of possession.

Oregon got a 6-yard touchdown run with six seconds left to erase a 28-27 deficit and beat Stanford 35-28. However, the Ducks failed to cash as a 14-point favorite, dropping to 2-6 ATS in their last six games (2-4 ATS in Pac-10 play). Oregon outgained Stanford 451-325 (307-187 on the ground), but it lost four fumbles.

Neither team is playing consistent football right now, with both going 4-3 in their last seven, while Arizona has alternated wins and losses both in its last five overall and in all four of its road trips.

The Wildcats snapped a seven-game losing streak to Oregon in 2006 with a stunning 37-10 win at Autzen Stadium as a 14-point road pup. Then last year, the Ducks went to Tucson with an 8-1 record and No. 3 national ranking, but lost starting QB Dennis Dixon to an injury early in the contest and Arizona prevailed 34-24 as a 10½-point home ‘dog. The ‘Cats have cashed in the last three meetings – all as a double-digit pup – after Oregon had gone 4-0 ATS in the previous four.

Arizona is on positive pointspread runs of 10-3 overall, 8-2 in Pac-10 play, 7-0 as an underdog, 6-0 against winning teams, 6-2 in November and 6-0 versus winning teams. On the flip side, in addition to its current 2-6 ATS nosedive, Oregon is in pointspread funks of 1-4 in Pac-10 play, 0-3 at home, 2-4 as a favorite, 1-4 on artificial turf, 0-5 against winning teams and 0-4 in November.

For Oregon, the over is on runs of 5-2-2 overall and 4-1-1 at home, and the Wildcats have topped the total in six of their last seven on turf.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER

(13) Georgia (8-2, 3-6 ATS) at Auburn (5-5, 1-8 ATS)

Auburn, which has lost four straight games to Division I-A teams, tries to get back on track when it hosts SEC rival Georgia at Jordan Hare Stadium.

The Tigers took their frustrations out on Division I-AA Tennessee-Martin last week, rolling 37-20 in a non-lined contest. Auburn’s offense, which has struggled all season, put up a season high in points last week after producing an average of 14.8 points in four previous losses. Tommy Tuberville’s squad has dropped three straight SEC contests and hasn’t covered a pointspread since a season-opening 34-0 rout of Louisiana-Monroe, a span of eight games.

Georgia bounced back from an ugly 49-10 loss to archrival Florida with a narrow 42-38 victory at Kentucky last week, falling well short as a 13-point road favorite. The Bulldogs, who are 1-5 ATS in their last six games (0-4 ATS as a favorite), had a 520-331-yard edge in total offense against the Wildcats, but needed an 11-yard TD pass from Matthew Stafford to AJ Green with 1:54 to play to secure the victory.

The Bulldogs have trashed Auburn each of the last two years, winning 45-20 as a 1½-point home chalk last year and 37-15 as an 11½-point road underdog in 2006. Georgia is 4-2 SU and ATS in the last six meetings, the visitor is 11-4-1 in the last 15 battles (11-5 ATS), and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 clashes.

Despite their current 1-5 ATS slump, the Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six true road games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win. On the other hand, as part of their ongoing 0-8 ATS slide, the Tigers are 0-4 ATS at home, 0-6 ATS in SEC play, 0-5 ATS on grass and 0-4 ATS against winning teams.

While Georgia is putting up 32.6 points and 437 total yards per game, Auburn’s offense is netting a paltry 19.5 points and 315.4 yards per contest. The Tigers do rate a slight edge on defense, yielding 16.3 points and 305 yards per game compared with Georgia’s 25 points and 309 yards per game.

For Auburn, the under is on runs of 8-3 overall, 6-2 at home, 11-4 against SEC foes and 5-2 on grass. Georgia has topped the total in three straight overall, two straight on the road and five of its last six November outings. Also, the over is on a 3-0 run in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

(6) USC (8-1, 5-3 ATS) at Stanford (5-5, 6-4 ATS)

USC heads up the California coast looking to avenge one of the biggest upset losses in college football history when it meets Stanford in a Pac-10 clash.

The Trojans’ offense rolled up 411 total yards but struggled to put points on the board last week against Cal, but the defense came to the rescue again in a 17-3 home victory, the team’s sixth in a row. USC, which never threatened to cover as a hefty 22-point home favorite, allowed just 165 yards of total offense (27 rushing yards) against the Bears.

USC’s defense has surrendered a total of 23 points in six games since a 27-21 loss at Oregon State, and Pete Carroll’s stop unit continues to lead the nation in scoring defense (6.7 ppg allowed), total defense (206.4 total ypg allowed) and passing defense (128.7 ypg allowed), while ranking third in rushing defense (77.8 ypg allowed).

The Cardinal have alternated SU wins and losses in their last six games, falling at Oregon last week 35-28 but cashing as a 14-point road underdog. Stanford, which has scored at least 20 points in seven straight games, led 28-27 before giving up the game-winning touchdown on a 6-yard run with six seconds left to play. Jim Harbaugh’s squad got outgained 451-325 in the defeat, but forced four turnovers (all fumbles).

Last year, Stanford went to Los Angeles as a 41-point road underdog and stunned the second-ranked Trojans 24-23, scoring the game-winning TD on a 10-yard pass on fourth-and-goal to end a five-game winning streak against USC. The Cardinal trailed by 11 points with less than six minutes to go and won despite getting outgained 459-235. Stanford is now 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings, all as an underdog, but the visitor is 5-2 ATS in the last seven in this rivalry.

USC has alternated spread-covers in each of its last seven games and is 1-2 ATS in Pac-10 roadies this year and 5-10 ATS in its last 15 conference games. However, the Trojans are 25-0 SU in November under Carroll and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 November contests. Meanwhile, the Cardinal are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in Pac-10 play and 5-0 at home (4-0 this year).

For USC, the under is on streaks of 20-7-1 overall (6-2-1 this year), 21-5-1 in Pac-10 action (5-1-1 this year), 20-6-1 on grass and 6-2-1 in November. Stanford also carries several “under� trends into today’s contest, including 48-23-1 overall, 39-16-1 in league play, 5-2 at home, 5-2-1 in November and 18-8 on grass. However, the over is 7-3 in Stanford’s 10 contests this season, 9-3 in the last 12 Stanford-USC tussles overall and 4-1 in the last five clashes in Palo Alto.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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(11) Oklahoma State (8-2, 8-1 ATS) at Colorado (5-5, 2-7 ATS)

Colorado looks to win consecutive games for the first time since starting the season 3-0 when it hosts a disappointed Oklahoma State squad in a Big 12 battle at Folsom Field.

Oklahoma State started the season 7-0, but its dreams of a Big 12 championship and BCS bowl bid have gone out the window with two losses in the last three weeks. First, the Cowboys fell 28-24 at Texas on Oct. 25, then after a 59-17 bounce-back home win over Iowa State, they went to No. 2 Texas Tech last Saturday and got squashed 56-20 as a 3½-point underdog – the first time this season Mike Gundy’s team failed to bring home the cash.

In Lubbock, Oklahoma State was held to a season low in points and finished on the short end of a 629-368 discrepancy in total offense, yielding 456 passing yards and six TDs to Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell.

Colorado earned just its second Big 12 victory a week ago, holding off Iowa State 28-24 but failing to cover as a 9½-point home chalk, the team’s seventh straight non-cover. The 28 points the Buffaloes scored last week were the most since putting up 31 against Eastern Washington in Week 2, a span of eight games. Meanwhile, the CU defense has given up an average of 35.3 points in its last three contests.

The Buffaloes are on an 11-2 SU roll in this rivalry, but the Cowboys are 8-5 ATS during this stretch, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight. In the most recent meeting in 2005, Colorado scored a 34-0 shutout win as a 3½-point home chalk.

Despite dropping two of its last three games, Oklahoma State is still riding positive pointspread runs of 9-1 overall, 5-1 in Big 12 play this season, 6-2 on the highway, 10-0 as a double-digit favorite and 7-1 after a SU defeat. As for the Buffs, in addition to their ongoing 0-7 ATS rut, they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games, 7-20 ATS in their last 27 conference contests, 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 as an underdog and 1-5 ATS in their last six in November.

The under is 7-1 in OSU’s last eight road games (the one “over� coming last week) and 4-1 in Colorado’s last five overall, However, when playing in November, the over is on runs of 18-7 for Oklahoma State and 7-1 for Colorado.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE

Boston College (6-3, 4-4 ATS) at (20) Florida State (7-2, 4-3 ATS)

Florida State tries to keep its ACC Atlantic Division title hopes alive when it welcomes league rival Boston College to Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.

The Seminoles improved to 5-1 in their last six games with last week’s 41-27 waxing of Clemson, easily cashing as a four-point home favorite. Florida State, which is tied with Wake Forest atop the Atlantic Division standings at 4-2 (3-3 ATS), fell behind 10-0 halfway through the first quarter but ended up with 419 total yards (266 rushing) while holding the Tigers to 316 yards (79 rushing).

Boston College took a break from ACC play last Saturday and blanked Notre Dame 17-0 – its third shutout of the season – cashing as a 3½-point home chalk to halt a two-game SU and ATS slide. The Eagles actually got outgained 292-246, but they outrushed the Irish 167-66 and they picked off Jimmy Clausen four times. B.C. is out of the Atlantic Division race, sitting in fourth place at 2-3 (1-4 ATS) in ACC play.

These teams have met each of the last three years since the Eagles joined the ACC, and the visitor has won all three contests SU and ATS. Last year, the Seminoles went to Boston and handed the second-ranked Eagles their first loss of the season, 27-17 as a 6½-point road underdog. That avenged FSU’s 24-19 home loss to Boston College as a seven-point favorite in 2006.

Boston College is mired in pointspread funks of 1-6 in ACC play, 2-5 in November, 1-4 on grass and 0-6 following a spread-cover, but the Eagles have covered in nine of their last 11 as a road underdog since 2003. Meanwhile, Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six lined games at Doak Walker.

The Seminoles, who average 36 points per game, have scored at least 26 points during their current 5-1 SU run, and they average 392.4 total yards per game (201 rushing ypg). However, tonight they run up against a Boston College defense that yields just 17 points and 276.7 total yards per game. FSU’s defense is also stout, allowing 19.3 points and 264.8 yards per outing.

The over is 5-1 in B.C.’s last six games overall (4-0 in ACC play), but the under is 7-3 in its last 10 on the road and 11-4 in its last 15 on grass. For Florida State, the over is on streaks of 5-1 overall (4-1 in conference) and 8-2 against winning teams. Also, all three series meetings between these schools have topped the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and OVER

(25) Tulsa (8-1, 6-2 ATS) at Houston (5-4, 3-5 ATS)

The Golden Hurricane will try to rebound from their first loss of the season when they travel to Houston for a key Conference USA West Division matchup.

Tulsa rattled off eight straight wins to start the season (6-1-1 ATS) and had hopes of a BCS bowl bid, but those hopes went out the window on Nov. 1 with a 30-23 loss at Arkansas as a seven-point favorite. Now the Golden Hurricane turn their attention to the West Division of C-USA, as they lead Rice by a half game and sit one game ahead of Houston.

Tulsa’s offense leads Division I-A with 52 points and 593 yards per game, but in Arkansas the offense managed just three points second-half points and none in the fourth quarter, its first scoreless quarter this season. QB David Johnson threw for 322 yards, one TD and an INT and has just two TD passes in his last two games after tossing 31 in his first seven games.

Houston gained a season-high 693 yards in last Saturday’s 42-14 win over Tulane, cashing as 17½-point favorites. The Cougars have won four of their last five games (3-2 ATS) after dropping three straight (0-3 ATS) in September. Houston is fourth in the nation in total offense with 547.3 yards per game and the team has scored at least 41 points in four of its last five games. QB Case Keenum leads the Cougars’ attack, throwing for 3,385 yards, 29 TDs and nine INTs.

The Golden Hurricane stomped Houston last season 56-7 in Oklahoma in a pick-em contest, snapping a two-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Cougars. The straight-up winner is 8-0 ATS in this series dating to 1985.

Tulsa is on ATS slides of 2-5 on the road, 4-10 coming off a non-cover and 0-6 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but the Golden Hurricane are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five C-USA games. Houston hasn’t been a good bet lately, currently stuck in ATS slides of 3-10 overall, 2-6 at home, 17-35 after a spread-cover, 1-7 after a straight-up win and 1-5 against teams with a winning record.

For Tulsa, the under is on runs of 9-3 against teams with a winning record, 5-0 after a straight-up loss and 7-0 on grass. Meanwhile, for the Cougars, the under runs include 10-4 overall, 5-1 at home, 8-2 in conference games and 5-0 in November. Lastly, the under has been the play in the last three series clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA and UNDER

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

San Diego at UNLV

UNLV begins its quest for a third straight NCAA Tournament appearance when it opens the season at the Thomas & Mack center against San Diego, which is looking to make a second consecutive trip to the Big Dance.

The Rebels (27-8, 18-12-1 ATS last year) won a second straight Mountain West Conference championship last year and closed the season on an 8-2 run (6-3-1 ATS). They upset Kent State 71-58 as a 1½-point underdog in the first round of the NCAA Tournament before losing to eventual national champion Kansas 75-56 as a 13½-point underdog in the second round.

San Diego (22-14, 22-10 ATS) took advantage of the fact the West Coast Conference tournament was played in its home gym in March, knocking off Pepperdine, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga on consecutive days to claim the conference crown and a berth in the NCAA Tournament. Once there, the Toreros stunned UConn 70-69 as a 12½-point underdog in the opening round before bowing out in a 72-63 loss to Western Kentucky as a five-point pup. The Toreros finished the season on a 14-3 SU run and a 14-4 ATS roll.

UNLV went to San Diego last November and dominated the Toreros 66-55, cashing as a two-point road underdog.

Including the Mountain West tournament, which was played at the Thomas & Mack in Las Vegas, UNLV went 21-2 at home (11-6 ATS in lined games). The Rebels come into this season riding a 15-game home winning streak (7-4 ATS). Meanwhile, San Diego went 9-8 on the highway in 2007-08, but 13-4 ATS.

The Toreros enter the season on ATS streaks of 20-7 overall, 47-20 on the road, 36-17 in non-conference play, 5-2 against Mountain West foes and 4-1 when playing on Saturday. UNLV is riding pointspread runs of 18-6-2 at home, 24-9-1 in non-conference action and 37-18-3 on Saturdays.

The under is on runs of 8-3-2 for UNLV overall and 4-1 for San Diego against the Mountain West. Also, last year’s meeting between these teams stayed well under the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Butler at Drake

Two mid-majors coming off NCAA Tournament appearances hook up in a non-conference game for the second straight season as Drake hosts Butler in a battle of Bulldogs.

Drake (28-5, 20-8-1 ATS) started last season on a 22-1 run (15-4 ATS) – including a 21-game winning streak – and climbed to as high as 14th in the national rankings en route to winning the Missouri Valley Conference’s regular-season and tournament championships. However, Drake’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1971 didn’t last long, as the fifth-seeded Bulldogs lost to Western Kentucky 101-99 on a last-second shot in overtime, failing to cover as a four-point favorite.

Butler (30-4, 16-15 ATS) won the Horizon League championship last year, reached No. 11 in the rankings and made it to the second round of the Big Dance. But like Drake, Butler’s season ended in overtime, as it fell 76-71 to second-seeded Tennessee as a 4½-point underdog. Butler has started off the last two seasons with SU winning streaks of eight in a row and 10 in a row, and the Bulldogs began 5-0 ATS two years ago and 4-0 ATS last season.

Drake handed Butler one of its three regular-season losses last season – and its only home defeat – prevailing 71-64 as a 5½-point road underdog in a Bracket Buster Saturday game in late February. Drake went 14-1 SU and 7-4 ATS at home last season, while Butler was 15-3 (8-7 ATS) as a visitor.

In addition to its 20-8-1 ATS roll last season, Drake is on pointspread streaks of 11-5 at home, 20-8 in non-conference play and 10-3 on Saturdays. Meanwhile, Butler is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 non-league contests and 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Missouri Valley Conference.

For Butler, the over is on runs of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in non-conference action and 6-2 against the Missouri Valley Conference. Also, Drake enters the year on over streaks of 12-2 overall, 7-1 at home and 5-1 on Saturday. Finally, last year’s meeting between these teams soared over the 127½-point total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Johnny Guild

South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators

Florida Gators look to win their 12 straight game against the South Carolina Gamecocks in Gainesville.Without doubt, the Gamecocks have a sound defense, rank 10th in scoring defense at 15.6 point per game and third in total defense at 256.5 yards per game. Their defense may be tough, but offensively can’t match Tebow and his crew. Florida has won their last five games by an average of 37 points.Florida battered them last season and Tim Tebow threw for five touchdowns for 304 yards, rushing for 120 yards in a 51-31 victory in South Carolina. Take the Gators to win this battle convincingly in the Swamp.

Florida Gators -21

Texas Longhorns -13
Minnesota Golden Gophers +14
Alabama Crimson Tide -20.5

Jeff Benton

I’m on a 7-2 run with free plays in College Football. We’ll look to keep that roll going on Saturday, as we’ll grab the big points with Mississippi State against top-ranked Alabama.

No doubt there’s a huge class difference between these teams – Alabama is 10-0 and headed to the SEC championship game and Mississippi State is 3-6 and headed toward another losing season. And I would be stunned if the Crimson Tide lost this game. That said, they better come ready to play today, because the Bulldogs are better than their record. They lost to then-No. 9 Auburn by a single point (3-2 as a 10-point underdog); they went to fifth-ranked LSU and competed all night before falling 34-24 as a 24-point underdog; and they knocked off then-13th-ranked and unbeaten Vanderbilt 17-14. That’s three games against ranked foes, and three spread-covers.

Mississippi State also has an outside shot at a bowl bid if it can win out – of course that would require a win tonight, but that carrot certainly adds to the Bulldogs’ motivation.

Meanwhile, take a look at how Alabama has performed as a double-digit home chalk this year: It covered against lowly Sun Belt Conference opponents Arkansas State and Western Kentucky, but fell well short against Tulane (20-6 win as a 29-point home favorite) as well as SEC foes Kentucky (17-14 win as a 15½-point chalk) and Ole Miss (24-20 win as a 12½-point choice). Not only that, but consider that Alabama has played down to the level of its competition in recent years (3-10 ATS last 13 against losing teams) while Mississippi State has played above its head (7-3 ATS last 10 against winning teams). Also, the Tide have been a horrible bet in Tuscaloosa the last four years (7-20-2 ATS last 29 home games).

Throw in the fact that Mississippi State is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings with Alabama, winning the last two outright and cashing in each of its last four trips to Tuscaloosa, and I’ll take these big points in a heartbeat.

4♦ MISSISSIPPI STATE
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Re: Saturday Service Plays
« Reply #31 on: November 14, 2008, 09:39:27 PM »

Matt Rivers

For Saturday take the gargantuan number with the Hoosiers of Indiana in Happy Valley.

Penn State watched their national championship hopes go by the boards last week in Iowa and truly cannot be expected to rally back well enough to cover a number such as this in a conference game in this spot.

Sure Indiana is fairly awful and possibly the worst team in a down Big Ten Conference but the Hoosiers at least have a Quarterback in Kellen Lewis that is semi athletic and can make a few plays. Lewis has been banged up recently but it does appear that he will be good enough to go here and even if not this price is still too much.

Penn State is still a very very good team that will have athletes all over the field but in a noon kickoff after the terrible loss last week in Iowa just cannot be expected to win this thing by the number, no how no way. Look back over the past few games and you see a Penn State team that has shown some chinks in the armor. They were losing by double digits early on against Michigan before the huge rally and cover. Then the next week JoPa’s team was far from great in that late win in Ohio State and last week fell in Iowa against a good but not great Hawkeyes’ squad.

There is just no real motivation for the Penn State players and especially when you also factor in how a quality Michigan State team is on deck in a game that could prove to be for the prestigious Rose Bowl.

Let’s recap all of the negatives against PSU:

A loss last week killing the National Championship!

A look-ahead spot with Michigan State up next for the Rose Bowl!

A Penn State team playing little old “Indiana”!

A noon kickoff is never great for the big chalk!

The Nittany Lions will win this game and probably with relative ease but the number is too much as this thing ends something like 41-13!
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Re: Saturday Service Plays
« Reply #32 on: November 14, 2008, 09:48:38 PM »

Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Wisconsin -13 vs Minnesota
Houston +4.5 vs Tulsa
Louisiana Tech -13 vs Utah State
USC -24 vs Stanford

Single Plays

Iowa -17.5 vs Purdue
UConn -10 vs Syracuse
Mississippi St +22 vs Alabama
Notre Dame -4 vs Navy
Ohio State -9 vs Illinois
Western Michigan -16 vs Toledo
Texas -13.5 vs Kansas
Baylor -8 vs Texas A&M
Florida State -6 vs Boston College
Florida State/Boston College Under 44.5
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Re: Saturday Service Plays
« Reply #33 on: Today at 01:23:47 AM »

Bob Balfe

Auburn +10 over Georgia

Auburn finally got a win after 4 straight losses. Now it was a win over Tennessee Martin, but they are off the losing streak. Auburn plays great defense and at home they will give Georgia all they have trying to get bowl eligible. The betting public is all over Georgia and I would not be shocked to see an upset. Look for a tight defensive battle. Take Auburn.
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Re: Saturday Service Plays
« Reply #34 on: Today at 01:25:07 AM »

Cajun Sports

Mississippi St vs. Alabama
Play: Mississippi St +22

The nation’s #1 team puts its perfect record on the line Saturday as the Crimson Tide host the Bulldogs in SEC play. It hasn’t been a great season for Mississippi State, as the team comes in with a 3-6 record, including a tough 14-13 home loss to Kentucky 2 weeks ago. They have been idle since November 1st and figure to be well-rested for this weekend’s road clash, where they will try to make their season with a huge upset victory.

Alabama was pushed to overtime by LSU on the road last weekend, but pulled out the 27-21 victory. Saban, who is 10-0 for the first time ever as a head coach, has turned ‘Bama into a national power a bit faster than most fans and analysts expected. The SEC title game is already set, as the Tide will play Florida in the championship game, but the team is now trying to take care of business the next w2 weeks to carry an undefeated record into that showdown with the Gators.

Mississippi State relies on their defense, as they have been one of the weakest offensive teams in the nation this season, with the squad averaging only 16 ppg.

Opponents are posting 21 ppg and less than 300 total ypg against the solid Bulldogs “D�.

Overall this season, Alabama is averaging nearly 32 ppg, although they could manage only 21 points through 4 quarters last week, as they sputtered against the Tigers defense. Opponents are managing a mere 13 ppg against the Crimson Tide, who are one of the best defensive teams in the nation, although teams have had success running on Alabama in recent games, something Mississippi State will certainly look to be doing here, along with their defense keeping them close.

The Bulldogs are embracing this opportunity to play a #1 team for the sixth time in program history, and only its first since 1998. State has won against #1 one other time—Alabama, in 1980.

“It’s a great opportunity for us as a football team,” Bulldogs coach Croom said. “It’s rare that you get a chance to play the #1 team in the country during the course of the season. That opportunity has been afforded us and we’re going to prepare as best as we possibly can and go over there and play as well as we possibly can in the hopes of winning a game, on the road, in Tuscaloosa, against the #1 team in the country.”

They actually should have a fair amount of confidence coming in here, as State has beaten the Crimson Tide two straight years, not allowing an offensive TD in either game.

In looking at some numbers, we note that Mississippi State is:

2-0 ATS this season as an underdog of more than 9 points;

3-0 ATS this season vs. undefeated opponents;

6-0-1 ATS (+14.4 ppg) as a road underdog of more than 9 points and not off a non-lined SU win over the past 3 seasons;

3-0 ATS the past 2 seasons as an underdog vs. opponents playing with revenge;

5-0 ATS with rest, including winning the last 4 SU, the last 3 of which were as underdogs, including a victory over Alabama.

Despite being unbeaten, Alabama has some concerns, with QB John Parker Wilson being less than stellar after his outstanding 13-of-16 game against Georgia. In five games since then, he’s thrown only two touchdowns and four interceptions, and the passing game has fallen to 100th in the NCAA. Additionally, LSU ran for 201 yards against the Tide defense, and since the open week opposing teams have rushed for over 120 yards per game. Depth has always been the worry for Alabama, and this is the time of the season when players start to get worn down. Coming off a very hard-fought OT game at LSU won’t help matters either.

It should come as no surprise, that with little rest off an overtime game, teams facing rested opponents have not fared well. In fact, we have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:

From Game 4 on, play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of more than 29 points or underdog of 11+ points) with less than 8 days rest off an OT game vs. an opponent with 10+ days rest and not off an overtime shutout SU loss.

Just since 2004, these teams are 0-14 ATS! The Crimson Tide qualified as a “Play AGAINST� team last season and failed to cover the spread, and now they qualify once again.

In looking at some more technical information, we Alabama is:

0-6 ATS as a home favorite of less than 27 points vs. a sub-.500% opponent;

0-8 ATS & 1-12 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points before playing Auburn.

We keep an eye on the pointspread from opening to closing, and a couple of things have caught our notice here.

First, we like to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think “oh, the favorite ‘only’ has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread.” This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it’s a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite, especially if the line move did not happened a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number.

Secondly, we look to play AGAINST a team that was faded by a strong early line move and then favored by later line moves. Early line moves are those that occur in the first few hours after the virgin lines are posted. They are to be respected. The people who move the line early are not fooling around; they are serious players who love to take shots at virgin numbers. The oddsmakers are sharp, but they have to make a line on every game and do make occasional mistakes. Bettors have the advantage of picking and choosing specific games and when they focus on specific games when they first come out, their opinion should be noted with respect. If a line moves strongly during the early period and then heads in the other direction in the normal movement period, we usually have a case for the sharp bettors on one side and the public on the other – a definite scenario for respecting the early move.

Here, we get the best of both situations. Alabama opened as a 20½-point favorite – a ½-point under the key number of 21. The early sharp bettor not only did not bite on Crimson Tide, they went the other way, jumping on the Bulldogs, which dropped the line a full point to 19½ points Sunday night; however, during the week, the public has bet the Tide heavily enough that the oddsmakers responded by bumping the line up and over that 21 key number to 22 points and more.

We’ll back the defensive dogs and fade the public live move, as we look for the Bulldogs to give the tired Crimson Tide quite the scare.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: ALABAMA 21 MISSISSIPPI STATE 20
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Re: Saturday Service Plays
« Reply #35 on: Today at 07:47:50 AM »

John Fina

Selection: Notre Dame -4.5

Reason: Put us down on Notre Dame -4.5 for our Free College Football Selection on Saturday. Last season when these two teams met in South Bend, Navy beat Notre Dame. The Midshipmen defeated the Fighting Irish 46-44 in triple overtime. This matchup will be a huge revenge game for the Fighting Irish, a chance to salvage their pride and redeem themselves from last season’s loss. Notre Dame has lost 3 of their last 4 games which provides good value for us this week. The Midshipmen have lost head coach Paul Johnson, their star quarterback, and returned just five offensive starters, but it doesn’t seem to be affecting their performance at all. Navy has still managed to win 5 of the last 6 games including 2 consecutive wins. For the 6th season in a row, Navy is once again bowl eligible. This performance is exactly opposite from the gene