SPORTS ADVISORS
(22) Cincinnati (7-2, 4-4 ATS) at Louisville (5-4, 4-4 ATS)
The red-hot Bearcats have jumped into the Top-25 for the first time this season thanks to back-to-back wins over ranked teams and now travel to Louisville for a Big East matchup with the Cardinals.
Since falling in Connecticut on Oct. 25, Cincinnati has beaten then-No. 24 South Florida 24-10 as a 1½-point ‘dog and then last week went to 20th-ranked West Virginia and got a 26-23 overtime win as a seven-point underdog. Bearcats QB Tony Pike, still recovering from surgery on his non-throwing arm, threw a 2-yard TD pass in OT to Kazeem Alli to beat West Virginia, and he’s thrown 10 TDs this season against just three INTs.
Cincinnati has won six of its last seven games (4-3 ATS) to pull into a three-way tie for first in the Big East with the Mountaineers and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in the eight-team division.
Louisville has dropped two straight, both on the road, including last week’s 41-7 disaster in Pittsburgh as a six-point underdog. The Cardinals lead the Big East with 21 turnovers and coughed it up five times against the Panthers last week, including a fumble and interception that were returned for scores.
Cardinals’ QB Hunter Cantwell was replaced twice last week by redshirt freshman Matt Simms, but Cantwell is slated to start tonight even though he’s completing just 57.9 percent of his throws and has 13 TDs and 11 INTs.
Louisville has won the last five matchups (4-1 ATS) with nearby Cincinnati and nine of the last 10 (8-2 ATS). Last season, the Cardinals went to Cincinnati and got a 28-24 win as eight-point underdogs, handing the Bearcats their first loss of the 2007 season. The last time these two met in Louisville, the Cardinals prevailed 23-17 but came nowhere near covering as 25-point favorites.
Cincinnati is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 19-9-2 overall, 5-2-1 in Big East games, 25-10-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 12-4-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0-1 in November contests. Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in its last five Friday affairs, but otherwise the Cardinals are on positive pointspread streaks of 21-9 at home and 5-2 following a non-cover.
The over is 9-3-1 in the Bearcats last 13 road games, but the under has been the play in seven of their last 10 after a straight-up win and five of their last seven after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Louisville has stayed under the total in four straight Big East contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Denver (4-4, 6-2 ATS) at Boston (8-1, 4-5 ATS)
The Celtics will try to make it seven straight wins when they welcome the Nuggets to TD Banknorth Garden in Boston.
The Celtics stretched their winning streak to six with Wednesday’s dramatic 103-102 home win over the Hawks as Paul Pierce hit the game-winner with 0.5 seconds left. The victory ended Atlanta’s six-game winning streak to start the season, but the Celtics came nowhere near covering the 10½-point spread. Boston is a perfect 5-0 at home this season but just 1-4 ATS.
Denver went to Cleveland last night and dropped a 110-99 decision to the Cavs, coming up short as a six-point underdog. The loss snapped the Nuggets’ three-game SU and ATS winning streak, all coming after the arrival of Chauncey Billups in the trade for Allen Iverson.
The home team is on a 7-0 SU and ATS roll in this series, and the winner has scored at least 116 points in each of the last four. Last year, Boston got a 119-93 win in Beantown as a 6½-point favorite and then the Nuggets returned the favor in a 124-118 win in Denver as a one-point chalk.
Denver is on ATS streaks of 6-2 ovreall, 8-0 against teams from the Atlantic Division, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference and 13-3 in Friday contests. Boston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games, but otherwise the Celtics are on positive ATS runs of 11-5 overall, 35-16 against the Western Conference, 17-8 against teams from the Northwest Division and 5-2 when playing after a day off.
For the Nuggets, the over is 35-16 in their last 51 Friday contests and 8-3 in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference, but the under is 12-5 in their last 17 overall. Boston has topped the total in 25 of its last 33 against the Northwest Division and the over is 4-0 in its last four against teams with a winning record. Also, the over is 6-0 in the last six Nuggets-Celtics clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Houston (5-3, 3-5 ATS) at San Antonio (2-5, 1-6 ATS)
The Rockets wrap up a five-game road trip tonight in the AT&T Center in San Antonio trying to snap the home team’s four-game winning streak in this battle between Lone Star State rivals.
The host won all four meetings between these two last season with Houston getting the cash in three of the four. The four-game streak by the home team comes after a six-game winning streak by the visitor (5-1 ATS). The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Spurs, and they have gotten the cash in five of their last six visits to San Antonio.
Houston is 2-2 (SU and ATS) so far on its road trip and come in off Wednesday’s 94-82 win in Phoenix as a 3½-point underdog. The Rockets got 27 points from Tracy McGrady in the win that was marred by an on-court shoving match between the Suns’ Matt Barnes and Houston’s Rafer Alston.
San Antonio has alternated wins and losses in its last four after opening the season with three straight defeats. The Spurs fell in Milwaukee on Wednesday 82-78 as 2½-point underdogs. Gregg Popovich’s team is just 1-3 SU and ATS at home this season with the lone win being Tuesday’s 92-80 triumph over the Knicks as a 4½-point chalk.
Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games after a straight-up win and 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing after a day off, but the Rockets are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 Friday contests. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been a bad bet lately, currently on ATS slides of 1-8 overall, 1-4 at home, 0-6 against Western Conference squads and 1-5 after a non-cover.
For the Rockets, the over is 5-2 in their last seven against Southwest Division foes, but the under is 7-2 in their last nine after a spread-cover and 6-2 in their last eight after a day off. The Spurs carry under trends of 13-3 overall, 7-1 at home, 21-8-1 against the Southwest Division, 10-3 against the Western Conference and 8-1 after an off day.
Finally, the under is 22-6 in the last 28 Rockets-Spurs meetings and 6-1 in the last seven clashes in San Antonio.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Detroit (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (7-0, 6-1 ATS)
The Lakers will try to remain the NBA’s only unbeaten team when they host the Pistons inside the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles has been impressive at both ends of the court during its perfect start to the season, with the offense averaging 104.7 points a game and the defense yielding just 86.7 points per contest, holding all seven opponents under triple digits. The Lakers had their worst offensive output on Wednesday in New Orleans, but still cruised to a 93-86 victory as 1½-point road ‘dogs, their fourth straight spread-cover.
Detroit opened the season with five straight wins and then proceeded to lose two straight after acquiring Allen Iverson from the Nuggets for Chauncey Billups in an exchange of point guards. But the Pistons have rebounded to win two straight on the West Coast – a 100-92 victory in Sacramento on Tuesday as 7½-point favorites and a 107-102 triumph last night in Oakland, cashing as a 4½-point chalk.
Detroit has scored 100 points or more in each of its six wins and the Pistons have allowed only three opponents to reach triple digits.
The home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings between these teams, but the Lakers got the cash in both outings last season, winning 103-91 in Los Angeles as a 3½-point favorite, then cashing as 8½-point ‘dogs in a 90-89 loss in Motown. However, the Pistons are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 series clashes.
The Pistons are on ATS streaks of 6-1 on the road, 7-1 against the Western Conference and 5-0 against teams from the Pacific Division. Los Angeles has failed to cash in nine straight games against the Eastern Conference, including last year’s NBA Finals series against Boston. On the bright side, the Lakers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 at home.
The under is 13-3 in Detroit’s last 16 games when playing on the second night of a back-to-back situation, but the over is 6-1 in its last seven on the road and 6-2 in its last eight overall. For the Lakers, the over is 11-5 in their last 16 on Friday, but otherwise, L.A. is on under streaks of 6-2 when they get a day off and 38-15-1 against teams from the Central Division. In this rivalry, the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings overall and 7-3 in the last 10 battles at Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Jimmy The Moose
Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Nashville Predators
The Predators come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Ducks have lost their last 2 games. Nashville has lost several close games and their goalie Ellis is keeping them in almost every game. The Predators are 7-3 in their last 10 games played with 2 days rest between action. In their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record the Predators are 19-9. Anaheim has owned this series of late but look for another big game from Ellis in the Predators net and him to steal this one. Play on the Nashville Predators
Karl Garrett
Cincinnati -4 at LOUISVILLE
Tonight in college football, I am playing another OVER as Cincinnati takes on Louisville.
The Cardinals were held to just 7 points on Saturday, but they did give up a whopping 41 points in that loss at Pittsburgh, and could give up a few more here, as the Redbirds defense has allowed 20 points or better in 8 of their 9 games this season.
Cincinnati’s offense has produced 50 points in their last 2 wins, and now that QB Tony Pike is comfortable with that broken non-throwing forearm, I can see the Bearcats producing a few more points in this one.
Last year, these teams combined for 52 points, and a similar result tonight would put us OVER the total.
Have to believe there is going to be some points put up on the Papa John’s scoreboard before the evening is over.
G-Man taking the OVER in this one.
4♦ OVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Oklahoma City +8 at NY KNICKS
Of course it is tempting to just lay it with the Knicks, as New York is off to a 5-3 start under new coach Mike D’Antoni, and they come home fresh off a blowout win at Memphis.
On the other hand, the Thunder whimper into the Garden mired in a losing skid that has seen them lose their last 5, as Oklahoma City appears to have major issues with scoring points this season.
Still, the Thunder/Sonics have won the last 3 series meetings with the Knickerbockers, and they have covered ALL 3 of their road games this year plus the points.
New York is off to a 3-1 start at home, but have only gone 2-2 against the spread through those first 4 games.
No doubt the Knicks get the win, but we like the Thunder plus the points to stay inside the impost.
Play on Oklahoma City.
1♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Bobby Maxwell
Houston -5 at SAN ANTONIO
This battle for Texas could be one-sided tonight as San Antonio has been devastated by injuries while Houston looks finish off a successful five-game road trip. We’ll lay the chalk with the Rockets in this one as they have the better roster and much more scoring ability than the Spurs.
Houston got a victory in Phoenix on Wednesday, winning 94-82 as a 3 1/2-point underdog. But they got much more than a win, there was some serious team-bonding going on when they all rallied around Rafer Alston who got in a scuffle with the Suns’ Matt Barnes. They got 27 points from Tracy McGrady and 17 rebounds from Yao Ming in the win.
San Antonio opened the season wtih three losses and they’ve alternated wins and losses in the last four. The Spurs lost in Milwaukee on Wednesday 82-78 as a 2 1/2-point underdog. They are just 1-3 SU and ATS at home this season with the only win coming against the Knicks on Tuesday. this team has got Tim Duncan but not much else working for it right now.
The Spurs are pointspread skids of 1-8 overall, 0-6 against the Western Conference, 1-4 at home and 1-5 after a non-cover. Things aren’t going to get better tonight. Go ahead and lay the chalk with the Rockets.
4♦ HOUSTON
Jeff Benton
For Friday take the points with the Blazers at struggling New Orleans.
Obviously, it’s not quite panic time for the young Hornets, who were the preseason chic pick to win the Western Conference. There’s still a ton of basketball to be played, and I have little doubt that the Hornets will be there in the end. That said, something’s not right with this team right now. It has lost three of its last four games overall, including two of three of its home floor. Granted, two of the defeats came against the Lakers (no shame there) and Hawks (the surprise team in the NBA so far). But despite relatively tame final scores, the Hornets really weren’t competitive in either game. And their third loss during this four-game stretch was inexcusable (92-89 at the Bobcats).
The Hornets have developed a pretty distinct pattern in the early going, having scored at least 100 points in all four wins while managing 89 or fewer in their three losses. Well, tonight, they face a Blazers team that’s won four straight games, holding all four opponents under triple digits (that includes one overtime game). The last two of those victories came on the road at Orlando (106-99 as a seven-point underdog) and Miami (104-96 as a one-point pup), so the young Blazers have proven they can get the job done on a foreign court. Also, since being held to 76 points in a season-opening loss at the Lakers, Portland’s offense has been very consistent, producing between 96 and 106 points in seven straight games (five of them wins).
The Blazers proved last year they could hang with New Orleans, as the teams split the four series meetings. True, Portland is 0-5 ATS in its last five games on the Hornets’ home floor, but with the way these squads are playing right now, I fully expect that trend to end tonight. Take the points.
4♦ PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Red Dog Sports
Rhode Island -12
The Rams of RI were 21-12 last year (7-9 in conference) and have 3 starters back. They have won two exhibition games 123-84 over Concordia, a Canadien team that is 8-1 and they beat RI College by 109-69. Senior guard Jimmy Baron (the coach’s son) averaged 23 ppg in the 2 early games.
Brown has a new coach and loses their 2 best players from last year. Brown was 19-10 last year (11-3 in the Ivy).
RI plays at Duke on Sunday and may be looking ahead but should be able to put up plenty of points in this one and win by more than 12.
Rhode Island -12
Nostradamus
Louisiville +4
Parlay ML (Boston/New Orleans)
Detroit +9.5
Parlay ML (Detroit/Anaheim) 100/150
St Josephs -11
Hawaii -3.5
Sportsbettingstats
Cincinnati Bearcats -3.5 at Louisville Cardinals
Last week the Bearcats beat West Virginia 26-23 in OT while the Cardinals were crushed 41-7 by Pitt. This is a huge Big East game for both teams, as the Bearcats are in a 3-way tie for first place in the conference and the Cardinals still need one more victory to be bowl eligible. The Bearcats enter the top 25 after beating 2 raked teams in their last 2 games while the Cardinals come into this game after losing 2 straight, including an embarrassing loss 2 weeks ago to 2-7 Syracuse. The Bearcats are led by QB Tony Pike (1229 yds 10 TD 3 INT), who is still recovering from surgery on his non-throwing arm. Pike’s main targets are Marshwan Gilyard (43 rec 685 yds 7 TD) and Dominick Goodman (54 rec 668 5 TD). The Bearcats rushing attack is led by RB Jacob Ramsey (520 yds). The Cardinals are led by struggling QB Hunter Cantwell (1743 yds 13 TD 11 INT) and his main targets are Doug Beaumont (42 rec 508 yds) and Josh Chichester (20 rec 223 yds 1 TD). The Cardinals rushing attack is led by RB Victor Anderson (913 yds 7 TD).
Staff Pick: As of late the Cardinals have had the Bearcats number, as they have won 9 of the last 10 games between the two including the last 5. For the Bearcats to stop the streak they will have to stop Anderson and the Cardinals 31st ranked rushing attack. The Cardinals have the better rushing offense, which may be a major advantage in this game since the game calls for rain. The Cardinals rank 33rd in the nation on defense while the Bearcats rank 43rd. The secondary of the Cardinals has to step up in this game and stop the legit passing offense of the Bearcats. The Cardinals have been struggling on D lately, as in their last 5 games they have given up an average of 34 points in their last 5 games. The Cardinals also have to hold onto the ball, as they lead the Big East with 21 turnovers. This may be a good game to take the Cardinals, as they are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread and they are at home. This game could come down to the weather. If it rains the Cardinals definitely have the advantage, but if it does not the Bearcats will be able to pass the ball. Look for the Cardinals to control the game on the ground and continue their dominance of the Bearcats and win this game at home in an upset.
Cardinals 28 Bearcats 24
Bob Harvey
Florida -22.5
With all five starters set to return this year from a 24-win campaign, things looked bright for the Florida Gators. But how quickly things changed for Billy Donovan when Marreese Speights, the teams only low-post blue-chipper, opeted for the play for pay league.Now questions surround a posistion, that just a few months appeared to be on of the teams biggest strengths. Thankfully for the Gators they had one of the better recruiting classes in the country and that means they’ll be counting on a pair of 6-10 freshman: Eloy Vargas and Kenny Kadji to fill the big sneakers of Speights.If the Gators can fill that hole in the middle, they’ll have, if I can use a baseball metaphor, all the bases covered in the other areas, There’s no reason this Gator team can’t compete for another SEC crown and for Donovan’s sake, return to the “Big Danceâ€?.Florida comes into tonight’s game with Toledo with some “young guysâ€? who’ve already earned veteran stripes for their play last season. Example #1 is Nick Calathes who earned SEC Newcomer of the Year honors and lead the Gators in scoring, assists (No. 1 in the conference in assists per game), 3-pointers and steals.Another freshman, Jai Lucas, started all 36 games and shot 43.5 percent from downtown. Junior forward Dan Werner and senior guard Walter Hodge are the other two returning starters.In addition to the starters, Chandler Parsons, Adam Allen, and Tyus played in all of Florida’s games and averaged at least 10 minutes per appearance.So there’s experience, depth and a yearning to make up for what was, by Florida standards, a sub-par season. Sure they advanced into the NIT tournament and while that might be acceptable for some teams, that won’t get it done in Gatorville.In this opener tonight, I’m going to side with Billy D’s group and lay the -22.5
Dave Cokin
SMU / South Florida
Play: South Florida -12’
Laying doubles with South Florida normally would not be advisable, but tonight’s the exception to that rule as they host SMU. The Mustangs are as green as it gets and they’re going to take some serious lumps all season. They’ve got height, but are likely to lack strength and are almost sure to get pushed around regularly, especially on the road. South Florida is nothing to write home about, and they appear very vulnerable in the paint with transfer Gilchrist not eligible till after December exams (ditto for talented guard Mercer). But the Bulls have much more athleticism than their guests tonight and I can’t see this game being much of a contest. Lay the lumber with South Florida.
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JIM FEIST
PHOENIX SUNS / SACRAMENTO KINGS
Take Over
Defense is not the calling card of either team. Phoenix allows 98 ppg (19th in the NBA), Sacramento allows 106 (second worst). The Suns are 6-3 over the total and ranked first in the NBA in shooting and second in scoring. “We’ve got to do a better job of getting to our spots earlier and having a rhythm to our early offense,” HC Terry Porter said. “It gets us to a point where we’re almost too slow. On (opponent baskets), I like to still push it up and get into our spots quickly and have some flow about us, as opposed to slowly walking it up and then very methodical.” Point guard Steve Nash had as many turnovers (six) as assists Monday. That happened four times last season. Look for them to go uptempo against this terrible Kings defense. Play the Suns/Kings over the total.