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Fresno State at Rutgers

Rutgers opens the 2008 campaign at home in Piscataway, N.J., against the Bulldogs, who will make their longest road trip since 2000, when they got belted 43-10 at Ohio State.

The Scarlet Knights, under eighth-year coach Greg Schiano, followed their breakthrough 11-2 season in 2006 by going just 8-5 last year (6-6 ATS), but they did finish up with a 52-30 victory over Ball State in the International Bowl as an 11-point favorite. Prior to that easy spread-cover, Rutgers was on a 1-4 ATS slide.

Fresno State, with coach Pat Hill entering his 12th season, is coming off a solid 9-4 season (7-5 ATS) that included a 40-28 victory over Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl. After failing to cover in two of their first three games last year, the Bulldogs went 6-3 ATS the rest of the season, putting behind their nightmarish 1-10-1 ATS effort of 2006.

The Scarlet Knights have 15 starters back from last year, but they must find a way to replace running back Ray Rice, who racked up an eye-popping 2,012 rushing yards in 2007. QB Mike Teel (3,147 yards passing, 20 TDs, 13 INTs last year) returns for his third year as the starter, and Rutgers also has all of its top receivers returning. Rutgers averaged 32.8 ppg last year, while allowing 22.5.

The Bulldogs are favored to win the Western Athletic Conference in 2008 thanks to 17 returning starters returning, including running backs Lonyae Miller, Ryan Matthews and Anthony Harding, who combined for 1,924 rushing yards and 25 TDs last season. Also returning is QB Tom Brandstater, who threw for 15 TDs against just five INTs last year. However, Fresno State is looking for big improvement on defense after ranking 73rd in the nation last year, allowing more than 400 yards per game.

The Knights are on a 12-2 SU tear in their last 14 non-conference games, winning by an average of 28 points, but they are a mediocre 8-9 ATS in their last 17 starts as a home chalk (2-3 ATS last year in that role) and they’re 2-6 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2005. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have been solid against the number as a non-conference ‘dog, going 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games in that role, and they cashed in four of their final five on the road in 2007.

The over for Rutgers is on runs of 11-5-1 overall and 7-3-1 at home, and the over for Fresno State is on streaks of 4-0 in non-conference play, 5-2 in roadies and 14-6 in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE and OVER

(18) Tennessee at UCLA

The Bruins open the Rick Neuheisel era with a tough non-conference clash against Tennessee at the Rose Bowl.

Neuheisel, a former UCLA quarterback who has had head-coaching stops at Colorado and Washington, inherits a squad that went a disappointing 6-7 last year (9-4 ATS). Despite a .500 record, the Bruins snuck into the Las Vegas Bowl, where they lost to BYU 17-16, though they covered as a six-point underdog even though coach Karl Dorrell was fired as coach after the regular season. In the spread-cover versus BYU, UCLA enters this season on a 4-0 ATS roll.

Phil Fulmer, who took over for Johnny Majors midway through the 1992 season, is entering his 17th year as head coach at Tennessee, which went 10-4 last year (9-4-1 ATS). The Vols hit their stride down the stretch, winning six of their last seven games (5-1-1 ATS), including a 21-17 New Year’s Day victory over Wisconsin as a 2½-point favorite in the Outback Bowl.

UCLA is already thin at QB, with Pat Cowan (knee) out for the season and Ben Olson (foot) likely out until midseason, leaving Neuheisel with junior college transfer Kevin Craft under center. The Bruins have just nine returning starters from a team that struggled to score last year, being held to 16 points or less six times, including four games in single digits. In fact, UCLA barely outscored its opponents last season, averaging 22.4 ppg while allowing of 22.3.

As with UCLA, Tennessee will have a first-year starter at QB in Jonathan Crompton, but 1,000-yard rusher Arian Foster and 1,000-yard receiver Lucas Taylor return, as do four of five offensive linemen. The Vols, playing in the perennially tough SEC, averaged 32.5 ppg last year while allowing just a few points less at 27.3.

The Bruins are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games at the Rose Bowl, and they are on further positive pointspread runs of 6-0 as a home ‘dog, 4-0 against the SEC, 13-2-1 overall as a pup since 2004 and 19-7-1 in September. The Volunteers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 season openers, but both losses came in West Coast road games, at UCLA in 1994 and at California last year. Tennessee sports ATS streaks of 4-0 in non-SEC play and 5-2 in September.

For UCLA, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home and 6-2 in non-conference action. The total also stayed low in six of Tennessee’s final seven games in 2007.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA and UNDER

NATIONAL LEAGUE

N.Y. Mets (76-61) at Milwaukee (80-56)

The N.L. East-leading Mets hand the ball to southpaw Johan Santana (12-7, 2.70 ERA) at Miller Park to open a three-game set against the Brewers, who will counter with right-hander Ben Sheets (12-7, 3.05).

New York beat Florida 6-2 on the road Sunday to take two of three from the Marlins. The Mets have won three of their last four games and are on further streaks of 5-0 behind Santana, 5-1 in series openers, 8-3 on the highway and 13-5 overall.

Milwaukee, which leads the N.L. wild-card race, pounded Pittsburgh 7-0 Sunday behind a one-hitter from CC Sabathia to complete a sweep of the three-game series. The Brew Crew has won 19 of 26 and eight of its last nine overall and sports additional runs of 4-0 at home, 23-7 against lefty starters and 8-1 with Sheets facing an N.L. East team.

This is just the second series of the season between these two teams, with Milwaukee having taken two of three at New York in April. The Mets are 9-4 in the last 13 clashes at Miller Park, but the Brewers are 4-1 in Sheets’ last five outings against New York.

The Mets are 5-0 in Santana’s last five starts, including a come-from-behind 6-3 victory at Philadelphia on Wednesday, in which Santana allowed three runs on five hits in six innings. Over his last eight starts, Santana has allowed just 12 earned runs in 59 1/3 innings, for a minuscule 1.82 ERA.

Sheets snapped a 1-4 slide over his previous five starts with a solid effort in a 12-0 rout Tuesday at St. Louis. He scattered five hits in six shutout innings.

Santana is 6-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 road starts this season, and he’s 3-2 with a 3.61 ERA in 10 career appearances (six starts) against Milwaukee. Sheets is 5-4 with a 3.52 ERA in 10 home starts this year, and he’s 4-2 in seven career starts against New York, despite an inflated 5.10 ERA.

For New York, the over is on streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 8-1-2 on Mondays and 18-8-2 against the N.L. Central, and the over is 12-4-1 in Milwaukee’s last 17 home games against lefties. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 40-17-5 overall, 10-1-1 at Miller Park and 5-0 with Sheets starting against New York.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Houston (71-66) at Chicago Cubs (85-52)

The Cubs, with the second-best record in baseball behind Tampa Bay, send Jason Marquis (9-7, 4.52 ERA) to the hill at Wrigley Field to open a three-game series against the Astros and ace Roy Oswalt (12-9, 4.11).

Chicago has followed a seven-game winning streak with two straight home losses to Philadelphia, including Sunday’s 5-3 setback. But the Cubs are still on a bevy of positive runs, including 35-18 overall, 50-18 at home, 11-4 against winning teams and 21-8 when Marquis toes the rubber at Wrigley.

Houston shut out St. Louis 3-0 Sunday to post its fifth straight victory and seventh in the last nine games. The Astros are 6-1 in Oswalt’s last seven starts overall, but they are a paltry 4-10 in his last 14 road starts.

These two N.L. Central rivals have split 12 meetings this season, with Chicago taking two of three at home in their most recent series Aug. 4-6. The Cubs are 4-0 in Marquis’ last four home starts against the Astros and 5-1 the last six times they’ve faced Oswalt.

The Cubs have won three of their last four behind Marquis, including a 2-0 victory at Pittsburgh on Wednesday. In that outing, Marquis allowed five hits in seven shutout innings.

Oswalt allowed one run on five hits in seven innings in Wednesday’s 4-1 home victory over Cincinnati, his fourth win in his last five starts. The right-hander has gone at least seven innings in all five of those outings.

Marquis is 4-4 with a 5.76 ERA in 13 home starts this season, and he’s 9-5 with a 5.22 ERA in 25 career appearances (20 starts) against Houston. Oswalt is 4-6 with a 3.93 ERA in 12 road starts this year, and he’s an even 11-11 with a 4.09 ERA in 25 career appearances (24 starts) against Chicago.

The over for the Cubs is on runs of 10-5 against winning teams, 5-1 in series openers, 6-2 behind Marquis at home and 9-4 against Oswalt. On the flip side, the under is on a 5-1 overall tear for the Astros and is on additional runs of 10-4 on the road behind Oswalt and 37-17-1 in the last 55 meetings between these two teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS